Everyone knows the high priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 11.
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First, let’s see what did and didn’t work in Week 10.
THINGS THAT WORKED IN WEEK 10
1) Kirk Cousins – 31.96 – Flacco (26.3) was good, too, and Cousins was no Mariota, but plenty good enough.
2) Matt Jones – 30.7 – If you didn’t believe in Cousins, he worked, too.
3) Michael Floyd – 33.3 – I wrote it up, put it here, and then did nothing with it. Dang.
4) Richard Rodgers – 14.2 – Punt the tight end fantasy goodness.
THINGS THAT DIDN’T WORK IN WEEK 10
1) Willie Snead – 0.0 – Sore knee occurred after we ran this. That’s my story, anyway.
2) Brandon LaFell – 8.6 – Couldn’t do it two weeks in a row.
3) Darren McFadden – 8.8 – The Bucs run defense is no Bucs pass defense.
4) Julius Thomas – 4.3 – I’ve come to terms. He’s not a thing and won’t be.
Anyway, on to Week 11 while I find another Florida Gator to pick this week. Contact me @JasonWalker_72 with any other value questions through the rest of Week 11.
Matthew Stafford ($5,400) – Detroit is the highest scoring road dog of the week and the Raiders pass defense is poor, leaving only your possible apprehension regarding Stafford as a roadblock to rostering. The last time he was in this spot against a soft pass defense, Week 7 against the Bears, Stafford delivered a 37 DK point day.
Mark Sanchez ($5,000) – Ok, you think you don’t like rostering Stafford…try the Sanchize. The Bucs run defense is top five best in the league, so the Eagles will have to pass to make any kind of offense work well. Sanchez did throw eight TD passes in the final six games last season to show he is capable of doing such things.
Alex Smith ($5,000) – I’d love to put Tyrod Taylor here, but there is some serious negative correlation between the second game of the season between divisional opponents and the Bills have the Patriots after facing them in Buffalo earlier this season. I also couldn’t pull the trigger on Case Keenum or Brock Osweiler or T.J. Yates. So I’ll put Smith, who has the prime matchup against top ten worst pass defense in San Diego and Smith has reached value at this spot seven times this season.
Charcandrick West ($4,500) – If you’ve been alone on Charcandrick Island is the last few weeks, look out, you are about to get a lot of company. West plays on almost all snaps for the Chiefs, has the horrible Chargers defense in front of him, a positive game script and is coming off three games in which he snapped off 23.90, 22.20 and 31.10 DK points. If you’re playing a cash game and don’t have West as one of your RBs, you’ll be the only one at the party not having a good time.
Jonathan Stewart ($4,400) – I’ll just keep putting Stewart in here, as he’s now up to five straight 20 carry games. The Washington rush defense has fallen way off and is now below average for the year and the Panthers are seven point favorites with a 26.3 projected team total. He’s had touchdowns in three of those five straight games with 20 carries and while he hasn’t had a wish-I-was-on-him game yet, it’s coming with this kind of volume and the proficiency of the Panthers this season.
T.J. Yeldon ($4,800) – He’s a little banged up, but it’s a good matchup against the Titans rush defense and Yeldon participates in well over 80% of the Jags snaps. Make sure he’s active, but if he is, he’ll get the volume.
Ronnie Hillman ($3,900) – Hillman is the Broncos running back that gets first shot at the Bears poor run defense. Hillman got a large majority of the Broncos meaningful RB snaps last week and should he get the same this week, should replicate the success he had against the Browns in a similar spot a month ago.
Danny Amendola ($4,000) – It’s easy to say that, oh Amendola will slide right in for Edelman, but that’s rarely the case. Amendola will have to pick up the slack left by Edelman’s injury, but it’s not smart to assume he’ll gobble up the same numbers. That said, he did immediately have 11 targets and 10 catches for 79 yards against the Giants and has a very favorable matchup by PFF’s measurements, against the Bills’ Nickell Robey.
Stevie Johnson ($3,900) – Johnson got the volume last week with 10 targets and is in line for more of the same, albeit in a less favorable position against the Chiefs. However, the Chargers have shown they have to pass and pass a lot, which means more targets and points for Stevie.
Golden Tate ($4,600) – Tate is in an excellent spot here and is a good stack with Stafford this week. Tate has a premium matchup this week against D.J. Hayden of the Raiders and has the skills to make hay out of that. Tate’s salary has dropped $1,700 to this point and the last time he had a favorable matchup like this he delivered 16 DK points against Chicago.
Davante Adams ($4,600) – Well if Aaron Rodgers is going to give him 21 targets then I guess he’ll make the mark every week. He does not have the best matchup this week as he’s slated to go up against Terence Newman, but the game is slated to be a tight one in Minnesota and the Packers running game lacks dynamics, so we could be seeing another pass volume game from Rodgers, which means that while Adams may not be economical with his volume, he can make value from here.
Michael Floyd ($3,800) – He came up at the end of his epic game last week with a sore hamstring but if he goes I like his role in what has become the second best passing attack behind the Patriots. In his last four games, Floyd has produced 16, 14.9, 23.6 and 33.3 points.
Eric Ebron ($3,500) – The obligatory “So you’re playing the Oakland Raiders” TE play, Ebron has the skills and is a sneaky tournament double-stack with Tate and Stafford. The reason why the Raiders are targeted is because they’ve added the most value, by far, to the opponent’s tight end position so far this season.
Zach Ertz ($3,100) – Ertz gets a lot of targets, ten last week, and now has the Buccaneers leaky pass defense to play with this week. The Bucs stuff the run just fine, so even through the game script has the Eagles ahead, they’ll still have to control through the pass, leaving Ertz as a prime target for that approach.
Richard Rodgers ($3,100) – Rodgers has been getting his attention, especially near the goalline, where he has five targets this season. With a tight game projected, the Packers will be throwing, leaving Rodgers as a solid punt play, having scored 10 points or more in five of eight games.
Tennessee Titans ($2,400) – A defense on a Thursday night isn’t a bad thing, especially when the Jaguars coming in a little hobbled. The Titans are the top rated pass rush team right now, per Football Outsiders and the Jaguars bottom ten in protecting Blake Bortles. It’s a nice price for a good spot if you’re playing a Thursday night contest.
Chicago Bears ($2,000) – they aren’t a great defense, but at the minimum, they could be a serviceable play against an inexperienced starting QB who is playing on the road in Chicago.