WATCH: VALUE ALERT – ZACH MILLER
Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Week 10.
Values here are $5.5K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Jay Cutler ($5,200) – The Buccaneers dare teams to pass on them and those teams are successful, with the Bucs having the 20th-ranked pass defense by Football Outsiders and allowing the fourth-most DK points per game to opposing QBs.
Case Keenum ($5,000) – The same is true for the New York Jets, against whom Keenum is facing this week. The Jets pass defense is ranked 30th by FO and Todd Gurley is banged up with a thigh injury. The Rams have already let Keenum throw 99 times over the past two weeks, so the track has been lain for Keenum to let it rip again this week.
Carson Wentz ($5,400) – OK, we’ve just looked at a couple of bad pass defenses, but now here are the Falcons, who have given up the most DK points to QBs this season, both in total and per game. Couple this with the Eagles being totally unable to run the ball to the point where Darren Sproles is their RB1 and you can see the path to pass in this game.
Darren Sproles ($4,300) – Speaking of Sproles, he is the surprise recipient of a dozen carries a week, in addition to the 7-9 targets he gets. Sure, Ryan Mathews gets all the work inside the 5, but that’s about it. And in a matchup that carries a 50 game total, there should be plenty of offense to go around.
Jonathan Stewart ($4,900) – Stewart is getting a lot of the scoring work now that the Panthers are trying to dial back Cam Newton’s exposure. The Panthers are dedicated to running inside the 5-yard line, evidenced by their 11 carries in 13 snaps there since Week 6. By contrast, the Green Bay Packers have passed 15 times to only three carries over the same span. The Panthers are favorites at home against the Chiefs, who just gave up a 100-yard game to Chris Ivory.
C.J. Prosise ($3,900) – He out-snapped the other RBs in Seattle last week because the Seahawks were in catch-up mode. But, hey, what’s going to be different about this week in New England? The Patriots are 7.5-point favorites and the ‘Hawks will have the throw, throw, throw at the Patriots 26th-ranked pass defense and Prosise will be the beneficiary.
LeGarrette Blount ($4,900) – And who will the Patriots be asking to grind out the clock to protect that lead? It’s Blount, who can attack a Seahawks defense that isn’t as strong against the run this season. Seattle is 20th against power runs and 15th in stuffs, feeding perfectly into Blount’s strengths.
J.J. Nelson ($4,200) – Nelson has emerged from the battered heap of Cardinals wide receivers and now has head coach Bruce Arians calling him the No. 2? Wow. His 19 targets over the past two weeks makes the case for it, and his 8-79-2 game last week against the Panthers broken secondary showed the potential. This week it’s the 49ers, which means more plays and more potential fantasy stats for all the Arizona players.
Kenny Britt ($4,900) – As part of that Case Keenum passing game against the Jets’ woeful pass defense, Britt has come through as a consistent target in that area of the Rams offense. Britt has a positive matchup with the Jets’ Marcus Williams and has 28 targets over the past four weeks.
Rishard Matthews ($4,200) – What a mess the Titans receiver corps has been this season. Matthews has 21 targets over the past three weeks, has a positive matchup against Green Bay’s Quinten Rollins, has a 50-point game total and the Titans are three-point underdogs.
Cameron Meredith ($4,400) – Meredith has not been thriving with Cutler as QB, but against Tampa, everyone is in play and if you can’t afford to get to Alshon Jeffery as your pass catcher in this game, Meredith is the cheap way to get access.
Tyreek Hill ($3,800) – Hill has the best individual matchup of all the Chiefs receivers and a lot of teams have gotten healthy against the Panthers secondary (see JJ Nelson above). There are more polished receivers on the team, but Hill has the big upside to blow out his price tag.
Zach Miller ($3,600) – Another way to connect with the Bears passing against the Bucs is to pair Cutler with Miller, who is coming off of a 10-target, seven-catch, 88-yard effort.
Lance Kendricks ($3,000) – If you were waiting for Kendricks to display consistency before rostering him, even in this matchup against the Jets, consider he has eight, nine and 12 targets in each of the last three weeks and his DK scores over those games are 14.40, 12.50 and last week’s 16-point effort.
Cameron Brate ($3,500) – Brate has emerged as one of Tampa QB Jameis Winston’s top targets, getting five and six over the past two weeks, respectively, with TDs in both games.
Los Angeles Rams ($2,900) – The Jets turn the ball over the second-most per drive this season (Panthers No. 1). The Rams have turned teams over the ninth-most per drive.
Chicago Bears ($2,500) – Tampa Bay is 25th in turnovers per drive and the Bears are ninth on this slate and 11th overall in adjusted sack rate (FO).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.