It’s Thanksgiving and what could be better than a tasty 3-game slate to salivate over while the pecan pie (or pumpkin, I’m not picky) and the rest of the good stuff digests or gets prepped.
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We’ll do the Full Value Plays, which cover the 13 games left after Thursday, later on, but I wanted to give you, the loyal reader, a quick look at the values specific to Thursday’s slate. As always, values are less than 5.5K for QBs, under 5K for RB/WR, under 4K for TE and under 3K for defenses. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalker_72.
Let’s do this!
Eagles QB ($5,300 or $5,200) – Nope, it’s not the non-licensed Randall Cunningham QB from the Tecmo Bowl era, but either Bradford (5.3K, questionable) or Sanchez (5.2K) is in play against the Lions who, true they did tame the Raiders, is still the fourth worst pass defense in the league. The game totals are almost identical for all three games and the Eagles are forecasted for 21.8 points. Before you think, hmmm, what about Jay Cutler in a pass-friendly game script, consider the negative correlation for QBs in the second divisional game against an opponent, in this case Green Bay, lowering an already low ceiling for Cutler.
Darren Sproles ($3,600) – Not to get all Eagles on you here, but with Ryan Mathews definitely missing the game and Zach Ertz missing, too, it opens up some targets in this Eagles offense. Enter Sproles, who stepped up last week with seven targets and 14.9 DK points. Value!
Eddie Lacy ($4,700) – You can’t be too predisposed against players, not matter the history, especially on a short slate. Lacy came back last week with a 22 carry, 100 yard week against Minnesota, who has the 15th best run defense in the league. Now Lacy gets the Bears, who are appreciably worse against the run being fourth worst. Since the Bears have to be concerned with Aaron Rodgers and their own terrible pass defense, it gives a good scoring op for Lacy. If you dare.
Golden Tate ($4,700) – The Eagles pass defense overall is sound, #10 overall, but there are some matchups in the secondary that can be exploited and one of those is Tate’s matchup with E.J. Biggers. Tate had 11 targets last week and grabbed eight of those for 73 yards in another plus matchup for him last week.
James Jones ($4,600) – He has a positive matchup against Kyle Fuller and had 11 targets of his own last week. He’s very reasonably priced to help get some top end plays on the roster and is consistent as long as the matchup is positive (check) and Aaron Rodgers is throwing him the ball (double-check).
Devin Funchess ($3,900) – Funchess got his first start and the rookie did well with it, catching four of his eight targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. Philly Brown is expected to miss again with his sore shoulder, putting Funchess back in play at a good salary. The matchup is not great, with the Cowboys grinding the clock down into jelly and a slightly negative matchup this week with Byron Jones, but Funchess can be a good tourney play at his price.
Brent Celek ($3,200) – No Ertz, or even with Ertz, frankly, Celek is poised to continue his two-week success run, which included last week’s 10 target, seven catch day. The Lions are sixth worst in TE defense efficiency, giving Celek a positive matchup and either Bradford/Sanchez a safe target to throw to.
Detroit Lions ($2,200) – They are favored to win, the Lions have been ok at rushing the passer and the Eagles have been equally average at protecting the passer. A couple of sacks and an INT seems reasonable against the Eagles, making a 7-10 point game a good bet and a good value.