WATCH: VALUE ALERT – JERICK McKINNON
It’s nearly Thanksgiving, and what could be better than a tasty 3-game slate to salivate over while the pecan pie (or pumpkin, I’m not picky) and the rest of the good stuff digests or gets prepped. We’ll do the full Value Plays, which cover the 12 games left after Thursday, later on in the week, but I wanted to give you, the loyal reader, a quick look at the values specific to Thursday’s slate. As always, values are $5.5K or less for QBs, under $5K for RB/WR, under $4K for TE and under $3K for defenses. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Sam Bradford ($5,100) – He is the only QB in our price range this week, but that does not mean he is here on charity. The Vikings are eighth in passing play percentage over the last three games, meaning they are picking up their passing pace and now face the worst passing defense, efficiency-wise, in the league in the Detroit Lions.
Rob Kelley (4,300)- Since he has been included in this space the last two weeks, we will feel no guilt in dropping him in here again, even if most will dive into the points chase after his three touchdown game against the Packers. Temper thy enthusiasm, as he is more of a 3-4 yards and a cloud of dust runner, but his price and his recent dominance of the Redskins rushing situation means he is still worthy of inclusion here, even against the Cowboys.
Jerick McKinnon ($3,200) – He has been bad, real bad, but the matchups haven’t been tremendous. Now he plays the Lions, who have been bottom five in defending the corners in the run game. The price is right, too, as you will be hard pressed to find a 12-16 carry back for almost the minimum price.
Eli Rogers ($4,500) – The highest game total of the week belongs to the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game, with an opening line of 53.5. It is true that Big Ben Roethlisberger plays way worse away from the Steel City, but the Colts are almost as bad as the Lions in pass defense this season. Rogers had 15 targets and 10 catches in the two games prior to Week 11’s wind-fest in Cleveland, so he’ll see some action this week.
Adam Thielen ($4,000) – Thielen had a good game while Patrick Peterson draped himself all over Stefon Diggs. The Lions’ Darius Slay is not of Peterson’s caliber, but he does negatively impact WR1s from other teams, like Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson in Week 11. As a result, Thielen got some of that extra Vikings passing in his direction, and is in position for the same this week.
Editor’s Note: Stefon Diggs is on the Minnesota injury report, and Head Coach Mike Zimmer stated he’s unsure if Diggs will be able to play Thursday. Be sure to check his status before the game on Thanksgiving Day.
Pierre Garcon ($3,900) – The huge game from Kirk Cousins and the entire Washington receiving core will not go unnoticed. Those who rostered Garcon in Week 11 will surely be on him in Week 12, as will others who witnessed the 42 points the Redskins put on Green Bay. So he’ll be popular, even against the stronger Cowboys, but the price is still right to go to him now that the Washington offense is revving high.
Jason Witten ($3,200) – Steady as he goes, Witten has continued to put up consistent targets and catches. He needs to get into the end zone to really exceed value but he’ll make 3x rather easily here.
Kyle Rudolph ($3,700) – Rudolph has definitely been re-prioritized in the Vikings offense, seeing considerably fewer targets. However, the Lions have been bad against the tight end and if Bradford can’t find Diggs with Slay covering him, Rudolph can offer some help.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,800) – The Colts have given up 35 sacks, by far the most in the league. Even with the Steelers’ poor, poor pass rush, they should be able to pressure Luck as the Colts try and catch up with the Steelers.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.