WATCH: HOT READ – LeGARRETTE BLOUNT
Everyone knows the high-priced stars that they’d love to load their lineups with, but you’ll need low-priced value plays to make it all work. Let’s look at who that might be for Championship Week!
Values are $6K and below for QBs, less than $5K for RB/WR, less than $4K for TE and less than $3K for DEF. Contact me with any questions on Twitter @JasonWalkerDFS.
Ben Roethlisberger ($5,800) – Only one QB fits our value criteria this week, and it’s Big Ben, who has to go into Foxboro. While Belichick and the Pats will likely try to eliminate Le’Veon Bell from the picture, the Patriots’ pass defense ended the regular season ranked 23rd in DVOA against the pass and have not been challenged by a pass offense in the postseason. The Steelers ended the regular season with the eighth ranked pass offense and should give the mediocre Patriots’ defense plenty to scramble over in this projected 50 point game total.
Tevin Coleman ($4,800) – Yes, there is a split between he and Devonta Freeman, but there is still plenty of snaps, touches and touchdown equity in a projected 60 point game total for Coleman to make value at his current price. In his last three games he has 22.50, 14.90 and 16.90 DKFP, and that is without the bump in pace/scoring that will likely happen this week in the Georgia Dome.
LeGarrette Blount ($4,400) – The huge dip in price from $5,800 to $4,400 should be a siren for you to consider him in tournaments. If the Patriots do have the lead at home, then Blount should have a serious role in pounding out the victory. Most will likely flock to Dion Lewis after his huge game last week, but that will just make Blount an excellent leverage play, who has shown the ability to score TDs regularly this year.
Taylor Gabriel ($4,900) – Julio Jones will get a lot of attention at his reasonable $8,200 price tag. However, Gabriel received six targets, catching four and nearly made value last week against a much tougher Seattle pass defense. This week, he gets possibly the best individual matchup of the week against Green Bay CB Damarious Randall.
Eli Rogers ($3,400) – If game theory guides you to the Patriots overworking to eliminate Le’Veon Bell as a game changer, then that will open things up for Rogers, who works from the slot and got seven targets last week. If TE Ladarius Green misses again, Rogers will get another bump.
Mohamed Sanu ($4,500) – All the Falcons’ receivers have positive matchups, but assuming the usual double coverage on Jones, then Gabriel and Sanu will benefit. Sanu had 13.20 and 14.40 DKFP his last two games and has caught eight of nine targets. Touchdown equity is high in the red zone for Sanu as well.
Jared Cook ($5,100) – I know, he doesn’t fit the standard mold of a “value” TE, but, to me, Cook is the only tight end with real pass catching upside. He had 11 targets last week and six catches, being very present in the biggest plays of the game. The Falcons finished with the 19th ranked pass defense, and with the game total so high, $5,100 for a large part of the Aaron Rodgers led pass game is like getting a $3K tight end.
Green Bay Packers ($2,000) – Hear me out. This game will be very high scoring, with a lot of possessions. This will mean the Packers’ defense will not get any points for holding the Falcons to a low score, but there will be ample opportunity for turnovers and the Packers ranked seventh in takeaways per drive this season.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.