WATCH: PIVOT PLAY – THEO RIDDICK
This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite tournament plays for the upcoming NFL week. I’m going to be focusing on high upside plays and pairings that could really pay off big for you in a tournament.
Tom Brady ($7,800) and Julian Edelman ($6,300) = Combined $14,100
San Francisco has given up the fourth most passing TDs this season, and exactly 700 yards passing in their last two games. There’s also the fact that the 49ers did play well against the run last week and held arguably the best RB in football, David Johnson, to 55 yards on 19 carries. In a similar situation earlier in the year against Cleveland, everyone expected New England to run the ball, but it was Tom Brady who went off for 400 yards and three TDs. In another “too good to be true matchup”, I won’t be shocked if we see Brady put up a similar line this week, and with Rob Gronkowski likely out, I won’t be shocked if it’s Julian Edelman who is the main beneficiary. Edelman has had a below average fantasy year, scoring just one TD this season, but he is well overdue for a breakout.
Bonus: Russell Wilson ($6,100) and Jimmy Graham ($5,800)
Tyrod Taylor ($5,600): I went back and forth on whether to write-up Russell Wilson or Tyrod Taylor this week. Both men have played exceptionally well of late but ultimately Taylor won out, mainly due to price and matchup. Over his last four games, Taylor has exceeded 20 DK points in three of those starts, averaged 48.5 yards on the ground, and scored three rushing TDs. Cincinnati has struggled on both sides of the ball this year. They’ve surprisingly given up the 4th most passing TDs in the league, and have allowed multiple passing TDs in six games. They also have the dubious distinction of giving up the only 100-yard rushing game in the league thus far to a QB (Kevin Hogan). This is a matchup Taylor can exploit and I expect he will.
Bonus: Russell Wilson ($6,100)
LeSean McCoy ($6,900): My Bills theme week continues. LeSean McCoy has been one of the most used RBs in the league this year when healthy and played 74% of the snaps in Week 9 (after returning from a hamstring injury). Off a week of rest, McCoy should be ready for another huge workload in Week 11. Average run teams have done well against the Bengals this year (both Washington and the Giants put up over 100 yards per game in Week 8 and 9), while good run teams have killed the Bengals, as evidenced by the fact Ezekiel Elliot ran for 134 yards and 2 TDs against them. Buffalo is the averaging the second most run yards per game (behind Dallas) and McCoy, as the lead back, is in a prime spot for a huge day against them.
James Starks ($4,200): While there does seem to be a lot of viable plays below $4,500 this week, Starks to me is the one with the most to offer. Starks played on over 71% of the snaps last week (55 to be exact) and while he received only 7 carries due to game flow, he still produced 13.4 DK points. This week Starks takes on the Redskins who have given up 11 rushing TDs this season. Even if Green Bay falls behind early again, Starks should see most of the snaps as he is the trusted pass protector for Aaron Rodgers and works well in the screen game.
Bonus: Isaiah Crowell ($3,900)
Davante Adams ($6,700): Adams is now averaging 24.82 DK points over his last four games and is seriously benefitting from the fact the Packers have no consistent run game and have been falling behind early. While Adams is thriving, what isn’t thriving is his ownership. He was less than 7% owned last week in big tournaments, and I doubt he’ll be much higher than that in Week 11. He should be though. Washington’s best and only reliable cover corner, Josh Norman, is set to shadow Jordy Nelson which means Adams will likely see a lot of Bashaud Breeland, a player who Stefon Diggs shredded last week for 13 catches, and who is also one PFF’s lowest rated corners this year.
Tyreek Hill ($4,500): Hill is a player I’ve mentioned here before (and hopefully people remembered him and played him last week!). Hill has sub 4.3 speed, but he’s also built more solidly than most punt returners and is capable of more than just hauling in an occasional deep ball. Last week he proved this by converting 13 targets into 10 catches and being the most productive player on offense for KC. With Jeremy Maclin looking very questionable again (missed practice Wednesday), and Tampa sporting one of the worst secondaries in the league, the real breakout for Hill might be coming in Week 11. He’s one of my favorite targets at under $5,000 this week and has serious upside.
Bonus: Odell Beckham ($8,500)
Tyler Eifert ($5,400): I’ve touched on the Bengals a lot thus far (and will do so one more time), but they still have a decent QB and some weapons on offense. One of those weapons is Tyler Eifert, who has now played two full games since returning from injury. In those two games, Eifert has seen usage similar to last season and has averaged 9 targets and 99 yards receiving thus far. The Bengals are not going to be able to run on the Bills — as they are holding opposing RBs to well under 4 YPC — so Eifert should see a healthy number of targets here. The Bills have struggled against big TEs, allowing Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett to each gain over 100 yards receiving against them. I think Eifert can add his name to that list, even if it’s in a losing effort.
Bonus: Vance MacDonald ($2,700)
Buffalo Bills ($2,700): This pick is very simple. The Bills are priced very cheap this week but the matchup sets up extremely well against the Bengals and their O-line, who have allowed their QB to be sacked the second most times in the league thus far. Meanwhile, Buffalo leads the league in sacks and is coming off a five sack performance against the elusive Russell Wilson in Week 9. Pressure leads to lots of good things for fantasy defenses: sacks, turnovers, scores. The Bills will get pressure in this game and will eventually benefit from it in some big way for fantasy. They’re in a must win spot this week as a team and defensively should be in line for a big game.
Bonus: Chiefs ($3,400)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.