Article plays went 3-2 last week to improve to 26-23 on the season for TNF. We’ve got yet another tight divisional matchup in Week 12, with the Texans favored by 3.5 at home against the Colts. The total’s set at 46.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HOUSTON TEXANS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8:20 P.M. ET)
Total Rushing Yards: Jonathan Williams OVER 26.5 (-112)
Total Rushing Yards: Jordan Wilkins OVER 37.5 (-112)
Marlon Mack is sitting this one out with a broken hand, meaning the workload should be split between Williams and Wilkins. Wilkins gained 20 yards on three carries against the Dolphins before going down with an ankle injury in Week 10, but he has been fully cleared for this game. In Wilkins’ absence last week, Williams ran for 116 yards on 13 carries, and also caught a 31-yard pass.
I like playing both of these overs together, as we’ll almost certainly get one, and hitting both shouldn’t be too tough either. These are really low numbers for a terrific Indy run game. The Colts rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 141.1, and these two guys will likely get all the carries — their rushing totals add up to just 64. The Texans rank just above average defending the run, allowing 101.3 yards per game. Look for the Colts to try and control this one on the ground with Williams and Wilkins.
Score 1st TD and Team Win: Jonathan Williams (+2200)
Score 1st TD and Team Win: Jordan Wilkins (+3300)
These should obviously be very small wagers, but building off the Colts’ running game, we can get extremely high odds on one of these RBs scoring the game’s first touchdown, and going on to win. They’re unlikely to hit, but I was expecting to see both of these players in the +1200 to +1500 range on these props. There’s some pretty good value to be had.
IND +3.5 (-115)
All reports indicate that T.Y. Hilton (calf) should return for this game, last playing in Week 8 against Denver. He could be a key to opening up this game for the Colts. Back in a Week 7 matchup against Houston, Hilton caught 6-of-11 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown, with Indy winning 30-23. The Texans are just 1-3 ATS at home this season and Indy’s 2-1-1 ATS on the road. The Colts are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six against the Texans, and Indy is also an impressive 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Houston.
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