Yet another rough 1-3 article last week, which drops us to 23-21 on the season. Now we get another close divisional matchup of a short week. The Browns are head-scratching home favorites again, favored by three, and a low total of 41.5. Here are some bets to consider on TNF:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8:20 P.M. ET)
Player to have most rushing yards: Nick Chubb (-167)
James Conner will return from a shoulder injury, and while he should be in command of Pittsburgh’s backfield, we still will see Jaylen Samuels get snaps. The bottom line is Conner hasn’t been great this season, rushing for 55 yards or less in six of the seven games he’s played in (and only going off against the Dolphins). Meanwhile, Chubb continues to dominate, rushing for 116 yards on 20 carries in Kareem Hunt’s first game. Hunt saw only four carries, and Chubb should remain the workhorse back, rushing for more than 102 yards per game.
Total Receptions: Jarvis Landry OVER 4.5 (-125)
Baker Mayfield has been looking Landry’s way a lot over the past three weeks, targeting him 33 total times. Landry’s caught 20 of those passes, with at least five in each game, and nine last week. Pittsburgh has a fantastic pass rush, which would mean the Browns are forced to target shorter routes like Landry instead deep balls to Odell Beckham Jr. Look for Landry to remain heavily involved.
Total Receptions: Kareem Hunt OVER 3.5 (+120)
Hunt played a significant role in his first game of the season. While he only carried the ball four times, he was targeting a surprising nine times in the passing game, hauling in seven for 44 yards. Even if his role in the passing game this week gets cut in half, we’re still right around this number, and getting plus money on the over. That said, I think Hunt should see plenty of opportunities in the passing game for the same reason as Landry. Targeting short routes in this game should be more beneficial for the Browns.
1st Half: UNDER 20.5
The under has hit five of the past six times these two teams have gotten together in Cleveland, and both of these teams have been struggling on offense this season. Pittsburgh has hit the under in eight of its past nine road games and five of its past seven overall. Both teams should look to establish the run early, and I think that gets this one off to a slow start. Both teams are coming off grinders last week, with 16 first-half points in Cleveland and 21 in Pittsburgh — although we saw a pair of defensive touchdowns.
PIT ML (+130)
I’m playing the “square” side here and playing what’s been the better team on the moneyline. The Browns are the “sharp” side, as they were last week when they pushed against the Bills. The Browns failed to cover the spread in four straight prior to last week’s push, while the Steelers are winners of four straight and 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven. The Steelers also have won seven of the past eight in this matchup, with the other game resulting in a Week 1 tie to begin last season. When you can’t trust either offense, I’ll side with the better coach and better defense at plus money.
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