With the football season about to start, we will look at NFL team or player futures betting odds each Monday. This week, I am looking at over/unders for individual player props in the regular season.
Note: All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
JOSH JACOBS UNDER 900.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)I certainly see the upside in Jacobs as a fantasy asset this season, although I am not sure how likely he is to hit his ceiling. Drafted by the Raiders in the first round, it would stand to reason that they are high on him. I am not sure this means that he is going to see a massive workload. In college, Jacobs carried the ball over 20 times once during his three-year career at Alabama. It is possible that he isn’t capable of being a bell-cow running back and we won’t know for sure until we see him try. The early indications from coach Jon Gruden are that he will be eased into the offense. Gruden has said that Jacobs will have to earn his role as a feature back and they aren’t sure how much work he will be able to handle. Last season, Oakland went with a running back by committee despite having Marshawn Lynch on the roster. Expected to be heavily featured, Lynch topped out at 20 carries before his season with the Raiders was cut short. Jacobs is going to struggle to put up massive counting stats if he is sharing a role in the backfield.
SAQUON BARKLEY UNDER 11 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS (-110)There are very few running backs that I believe provide significant value. Barkley is one of the great ones. The issue with his rushing touchdown total is that it means the Giants have to score touchdowns. Barkley should get plenty of work, but I think the G-Men will struggle to score this season. The passing game is in flux, which should limit the amount of times Barkley has the opportunity to score easier touchdowns in the red zone. Eli Manning is washed at quarterback and he doesn’t have many weapons to throw to. For the start of the season, New York looks like it will be down its expected top three receivers. Sterling Shepard has a fractured thumb, Golden Tate is suspended for a PED violation and Corey Coleman is out for the season with a torn ACL. While this should mean more check downs to Barkley, receiving touchdowns aren’t going to help him for this prop bet. With the Giants expected to be playing from behind in games, we could see Barkley get more work through the air, taking away his running opportunities. This could be great for his fantasy value, but should limit his rushing touchdowns for this particular prop.
ANTONIO BROWN OVER 1225.5 YARDS (-110)I feel confident that the Raiders’ offense will be built around Antonio Brown. He should be a target monster this season. In Pittsburgh, he always shared the field with other talented pass-catchers and this won’t be the case this season. Brown could be the first, second and third option for Derek Carr. Another difference from this season to previous seasons for AB, the Raiders are likely going to be bad. They have an over/under of six wins. Playing from behind, Brown is in line for much more prevent defense and soft coverage towards the end of games than he has seen at any other point in his career since the Steelers were always in the contender category. This means more garbage-time production for Brown. He’s gone over 1,250 yards in six straight seasons, leading me to believe this total is set a bit too low.
JULIO JONES UNDER 1525.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)Julio Jones is terrific. He led the NFL with 1,677 receiving yards last season and is one of the favorites to lead the league again. The issue is that this total is so much closer to his ceiling than his floor. Even though he hasn’t missed many games over the last few seasons, Jones has picked up a handful of nagging injuries. He’s appeared on injury reports and is now 30 years old. This total is so high that all it takes is one or two missed games and he probably falls short of the number. Jones was held under 1,500 yards in each of the two seasons prior to his monster 2018-19 season. There is also the issue of the Falcons having a potential breakout star in Calvin Ridley. After catching 64 passes for 821 yards in his rookie season, Ridley could play a bigger role going forward. A slightly more balanced passing attack would lead to a few less targets for Jones.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.