No more bye weeks, no more Thanksgiving Day games, so we are back to six late game this week. This player pool is again rich in quarterback options – both expensive and cheap. It also has nice options in both price ranges at running back. What it is lacking is quality cheap wide receiver, and finding a reliable cheaper tight end is a challenge too. So much for the general overview of the player pool, here are the guys I like for the late game in week 14:
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, $9,800 – Sure, it is the easy way out picking the most expensive quarterback as my elite QB this week. It is completely justified though. Atlanta ranks 21st against quarterbacks this season; Atlanta is not a good cold weather team, Atlanta is not a good road team, Atlanta, in short, is just not a good team. As for Rodgers, he has averaged 29.1 fantasy-points at home this season, he has upped that production to 33.12 fantasy-points per game in his last three home games.
Kyle Orton, Buffalo, $5,600 – Denver ranks 25th against opposing quarterbacks this season – though a lot of those points have come in garbage time. Expect a lot of garbage time for Orton this week. While the Bills are 7-5, most of their wins have been against teams with losing records. You probably are not going to get a monster game from Orton, but he could easily give you 20+ fantasy points for only $5,600.
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay, $7,800 – I have already discussed that Atlanta is not a good road team, not a good cold weather team, let’s add they are just plain bad defensively. They rank 31st against running backs this season, and I expect to see a lot of Lacy in the second half this week. Expect another big game from Lacy against Atlanta.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle, $7,700 – Seattle is starting to look like Seattle again. Look for Seattle to give Philadelphia a large dose of Lynch this week. Both to keep the Eagles offense off of the field and to prove that they are the tougher team. There is also a pretty good chance they force Mark Sanchez to turn the ball over a few times. I really like Lynch this week.
Frank Gore, San Francisco, $4,800 – There are not many sure things in the world: death, taxes, a struggling running back righting his season by facing Oakland. Oakland has been the worst team against running backs this season – they did just allow Tre Mason to score 40.4 fantasy points against them. The 49ers need to win, and they win when they run; expect a huge dose of Gore against Oakland in week 14.
Ryan Mathews, San Diego, $4,700 –Despite facing a couple of good defenses the last two weeks, Mathews has totaled 33.9 fantasy points in that span. New England ranks 21st against running backs this season, and you would think that San Diego will try to run the ball as much as they can to keep the New England offense off of the field. Chances are Mathews will not get you 30 fantasy-points, but I think he will get you 15+ fantasy-points for less than $5,000.
Julio Jones, Atlanta, $8,300 – I do not think that Atlanta will be able to keep up with the Green Bay offense this week, that does not mean that they will not try. It will be a little much to expect another 37.9 fantasy-points from Jones this week, though it is a possibility. What you should expect is for Atlanta to be throwing a ton this week, and a lot of those targets to be going to Jones.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay, $7,400 – Perhaps you have noticed I am pretty down on Atlanta this week? I am loving Cobb at $7,400 facing the tam that ranks 27th against opposing wide receivers this season.
Robert Woods, Buffalo, $4,500 – Someone is going to have to catch some of Kyle Orton’s passes on Sunday. Woods has topped 11 fantasy-points in four of his last five games, and has averaged 13.66 fantasy-points over his last seven games. In other words, there is some decent upside with Woods this week as well as a decent amount of dependability for a guy who costs only $4,500.
Doug Baldwin, Seattle, $4,400 — Yes, I expect a lot of Marshawn Lynch this week, but that does not mean that I expect Seattle to only run the ball. The Seahawks would be negligent not to throw a few passes to their wide receivers against the 30th ranking defense against WR this season. Perhaps this is more a gut call than anything else, but I think Baldwin is “due” for a pretty big game this week.
Rob Gronkowski, New England, $8,000 – No, Gronkowski did not have a monster game, though if you compare it to whatJimmy Graham did it was. More important, that makes ten consecutive games with over 11 fantasy-points for Gronkowski. Again this week, Gronkowski has a tough matchup; again, Gronkowski is worth paying for. He has simply been the best, and most dependable tight end this season. The only downside is it will be tough to get better than quadruple value from him given his price.
Anthony Fasano, Kansas City, $3,000 –If you want to go really cheap at tight end this week consider Fasano. Fasano has three touchdown receptions in his last four games, Arizona has allowed three touchdown receptions to tight ends in the last four games. For the season, Arizona ranks 27th against tight ends and did allow opposing tight ends to catch 17 touchdowns last season.
San Francisco, $3,600 – This one is pretty simple. Oakland was just destroyed by the St. Louis defense. The San Francisco defense is as good as the St. Louis D, and the 49ers were just embarrassed by Seattle, at home, on Thanksgiving. I think they take their frustrations out on a bad Raiders offense.
Lesser Priced D/ST
Kansas City, $2,900 – The Atlanta defense managed to score ten fantasy points against the Cardinals offense in week 13. While Kansas City does not have an elite defense, I know they have a much better defense than Atlanta does. Look for the Chiefs D to bounce-back this week against a struggling Cardinals offense.
Good luck with your teams this week. You can catch me on Twitter @STCDub.