When I thought about the concept of building a team, explaining the picks, then analyzing the selections, I was thinking I would either bomb horribly in the contest I entered, or win. I never considered the possibility that I would do just OK — honestly I thought I would end up having a bad week. As a learning experiment, I was “hoping” that I would miss on guys like Edelman or Vereen so I would have something to pick apart about my selections. In the end, my 173.68 points were good enough for 526th place out of 4025 entries. I was hoping for a higher finish, but was done in my getting only 23.78 points from Kaepernick and Bradshaw, Hilton’s 16.1 points was also less than expected. To win a GPP you have to hit on all of your picks, and I missed on a couple. Enough about the team as a whole, let’s see how the individual picks worked or did not work out.
Mychal Rivera, Oakland, $3,200 — I nailed this one. I was hoping for a nice game from Rivera. But I had no clue he would give me 23.8 fantasy-points. Rivera was a risk, but the matchup was good, and I was pretty confident in him given my tight end research.
San Francisco, $3,200 — I was expecting more than nine fantasy-points from the San Francisco defense, but it is not like they were a bust. They were a solid pick given the price and matchup, nothing wrong with picking them or how the pick turned out.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco, $7,000 — This was my miss of the week. Kaepernick had it all: good matchup, already had had a very good game against his opponent, was at home, and was coming off of his bye week. I was expecting more running from Kaepernick, and was not expecting a goal-line fumble. The result was not good, but the process behind the pick was not faulty; chalking this up to right decision/wrong result.
Ronnie Hillman, Denver, $5,600 — Hillman did not get his points the way I though he would, but I am not complaining about his 25.3 fantasy-points. Good pick, good result, nothing new to learn here.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts, $5,800 — I suppose that 10.9 fantasy-points was not the worst result, but far from what I was expecting. Indianapolis threw 46 times while running only 24 times against the Giants, and eight of those rushes went to Daniel Herron in garbage time. Bradshaw averaged 7.1 yards per rush and 9.7 yards per reception, he just did not get enough touches to have a good fantasy game. Bradshaw was a good pick that did not pan out.
Julian Edelman, New England, $4,100 — This was the pick I was most worried about, and the one I am most proud of. There was very little to recommend Edelman in week nine, but my suspicion that he would see more targets against a team with a good pass rush turned out to be true — a punt return touchdown did not hurt either. A pick like this probably works out, at best, half of the time.
Shane Vereen, New England, $4,600 — Given what I paid for Vereen, I am happy with what he did. He could have had a better game if not for a couple of drops. Vereen was targeted ten times against Denver which was what I was counting on — a lot of targets. The logic was solid and the pick worked out with Vereen.
T. Y. Hilton, Indianapolis, $8,100 — Hilton was my most expensive player so I was expecting more from him. It is not like he had a bad game or anything, yet he did not even return double value, which you really need to get from your priciest player. Hilton was ranked in the top-10 among WR in every ranking list I saw for week nine, so it was a good pick, not such a good result.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver, $8,000 — I was really worrying about this pick after Sanders got hurt in the first quarter. It worked out fine as Sanders finished with 28.1 fantasy-points. While the Patriots defense played better than I expected, Denver was able to rack up yardage through the air. Add Sanders to the good pick/good result column this week.
So, that is how things turned out. I had a solid week; I did not get rich, but I also did not lose money; I doubled my investment. I guess the main lesson here is that you need everything to break right to win a GPP. Daily fantasy is great, and I love football, but even if you a spot on with your reasoning behind your picks in a given week, there is no guarantee that you will have a good result. But, if you consistently make good, well-reasoned decisions, odds are you will be competitive each week.
Thanks for reading; you can reach me on Twitter @STCDub.