Texans @ Titans

Point Total: NA
Spread: NA


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Texans 13th 8th 14th 9th 21.5
Titans 26th 20th 6th 22nd 25.6

This game has a lot of things about it which makes it unappealing for fantasy. Both QB situations are up in the air as starters Brian Hoyer (concussion) and Marcus Mariota (knee) are both questionable for this game. If Hoyer sits then Brandon Weeden would start for the Texans. The Texans have thrown for under 200 passing yards in two straight game and they’d likely go with a run heavy approach if Hoyer ends up missing week 16. You can easily avoid this spot for fantasy.

At WR you’d have to downgrade DeAndre Hopkins slightly if Hoyer misses too. Hopkins does have a great matchup this week against a secondary who has given up 9 TDs to WRs in their last 4 games. The Titans played decently in the second half last weekend versus the Patriots but are still susceptible to giving up big games on the outside. The Texans have been passing slightly less lately and Hopkins, who was getting 12+ target a game earlier in the year, is only averaging 8 over his last three games. At $8400, with such a sketchy QB situation, consider Hopkins a risky target at $8400.

At RB for the Texans there’s now four backs being used in a rotation as Akeem Hunt started to see carries last week. Alfred Blue led the Texans last week playing on 35 snaps and seeing 20 carries but his workload is far from guaranteed with so many bodies I the mix. The Titans also have a decent run defense and making the Houston RB grouping one of the worst targets of the week for fantasy.

The Titans haven’t placed Marcus Mariota on year ending IR but they might. That would mean Zach Mettenberger would end the season as starting QB. Mettenberger threw two TDs last week (although one was really all the work of Delanie Walker) and played OK. As nice as that all sounds the Texans have a decent pass rush, are 6th in the league in sacks as a team and have only allowed 7 passing TDs in their last seven games combined. The upside isn’t there for me to want to consider him as a cheap option at QB.

Here’s the target distribution for the Titans last two games:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Delanie Walker 13 4
Dorial Green-Beckham 7 9
Harry Douglas 7 3

Even though Delanie Walker had the two TDs for the Titans in week 15 it was actually Dorial Green Beckham who went for over 100 yards receiving and had the most targets in that game. Green Beckham has a decent matchup this week against Houston rookie CB Kevin Johnson who’s been up and down all year. The Texans have allowed at least one TD to a WR in each of their last three games making this a decent spot to deploy the WR who is still only $4000 in price. He’s risky but might see more targets again with the big armed Mettenberger at the helm… TE Delanie Walker has now put up 5 games in a row of 14 fantasy points or more and been nearly matchup proof all season. At $5600 he’s still less expensive then some of the other big name TEs (like Greg Olsen) and offers you just as much upside. Week in week out he’s been the best value for the dollar at the TE position in DFS this entire season.

Gameflow: Houston has really been playing well defensively of late and was able to squeak by Indy last week. Tennessee has been terrible most of the season especially near the end of games where they’ve blown a few chances to close out some quality teams. I don’t have huge faith in Houston, especially if Brandon Weeden starts, but they’re the team playing for something and the one who’s been putting up W’s lately. I’ll take the Texans to win a game I’d probably just avoid for daily fantasy purposes

SCORE PREDICTION: Texans 21 Titans 17

Primary Targets:

None

Secondary Targets:

Delanie Walker $5600
Dorial Green Beckham $4000
DeAndre Hopkins $8400
Houston D $2800


Colts @ Dolphins

Point Total: 44
Spread: Dolphin -2


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Colts 23rd 27th 22nd 20th 26.6
Dolphins 24th 22nd 30th 12th 25.8

Matt Hasselbeck is going to start this game for the Colts who have struggled to put up points lately and have now averaged 12 points a game over their last three weeks. With Hasselbeck at QB everyone on the Colts offense gets a bit of a downgrade unfortunately, especially TY Hilton, who’s been the most targeted WR on Indy with Hasselbeck at the helm, but hasn’t found the end zone since week 12. Hilton has a great matchup against a bad Miami secondary who has given up 9 TDs in their last 5 games to WRs. With running mate Donte Moncrief still slightly banged up and Hilton himself emphasizing the need for more deep balls you could see him get a bit of a bump here this weekend. Without Luck he’s risky but the matchup is a good one.

AT RB Frank Gore keeps seeing the bulk of the carries for the Colts but only has one TD in his last 5 games. Gore hasn’t been terrible but he is averaging well under 4 ypc in his last two games. The Dolphins aren’t great versus the run however and at $4000 Gore is extremely cheap in price now, especially for someone who sees 60-70% of the snaps every week at RB. I like this matchup versus the Dolphins for Gore to possible return to the end zone at least once in week 16.

The Dolphins have been one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teas all season. Last week they got smoked by the underachieving Chargers and barely used main RB Lamar Miller. Miller lost some snaps to Jay Ajayi late last week who averaged 4.5 ypc on 6 totes and scored a TD. At this point no one is quite sure how the snaps or playing time will breakdown in week 16 but I’d venture to guess that at the very least Ajayi and Miller will both see decent amounts of work. Miller’s price tag makes him undesirable at $6400 but Ajayi, who’s looked explosive when given a real shot, at only $3000 actually makes for a pretty interesting value play if you need a min priced RB.

Here’s how the receiving targets have broken down for the Colts the past couple of weeks:


Player Week Week
Jarvis Landry 18 10
DeVante Parker 5 7
Kenny Stills 3 6

Jarvis Landry has undoubtedly one of the best matchups of the weeks at WR. Landry will likely avoid the Colts best CB Vontae Davis on most snaps since he plays so much from the slot and will instead matchup with the bad Darius Butler or the really bad Greg Toler. The Colts secondary has given up 7 TDs to WRs over their last 3 games and Landry could help inflate those numbers this weekend. This is a great spot for a big game from him… While DeVante Parker is now the entrenched “deep” man for the Dolphins and a decent red zone target I’m not super impressed with QB Ryan Tannehill’s downfield passing ability or the fact Parker will see lots of the aforementioned Davis who is still a very solid cover corner. I’d avoid Parker and look elsewhere for a cheap WR.

As for QB Ryan Tannehill, he has now failed to break 20 fantasy points in three straight games and been pretty disappointing fantasy wise all season. As a cheap QB play you could do worse but his upside seems limited, even against a pretty giving Colts D.

Gameflow: This is another ugly game between two very up and down teams. The Colts offense has really had issues lately and QB Matt Hasselbeck is pretty banged up, so I wouldn’t be shocked if you saw Charlie Whitehurst come in at some point. The Dolphins should bounce back with a decent effort here and if they do they’ll win.

SCORE PREDICTION: Dolphins 24 Colts 20

Primary Targets:

Jarvis Landry $6400

Secondary Targets:

Frank Gore $4000
TY Hilton $5800


Patriots @ Jets

Point Total: 46
Spread: Patriots -3


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Patriots 7th 13th 10th 7th 19.2
Jets 14th 21st 4th 5th 19.4

Tom Brady has been quiet for fantasy lately recording more than 20 fantasy points in just three of his last five games. The Patriots play the Jets this week however and a pass heavy game plan is likely. Brady threw over 50 times in the team’s week 7 meeting and a similar strategy is likely to be employed by the Patriots in this game. At $7500 Brady is sure to be low owned this week since he’s A. the highest priced QB on the slate and B. because he’s the same price as Cam Newton (who just scored 40 points last week). I do like the upside and matchup this week for Tom and think he’s a pretty interesting tournament play given the circumstances.

Here’s the distribution of passing targets from Brady the last couple of games:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Rob Gronkowski 4 11
Danny Amendola 9 2
Brandon LaFell 9 5

The big news this week for the Patriots is that Julian Edelman is again practicing and might be active this week. That’s good for the Pats since Danny Amendola is dealing with a knee injury that looks like it will keep him sidelined. If Edelman does return he’ll likely draw Darrelle Revis in coverage and might have his snaps limited which is obviously a concern for fantasy purposes… The flip side to that however will be that role players Brandon LaFell and James White will see more work. LaFell, who’s only $4500, could see a big game here as he’ll draw Antonio Cromartie in coverage who’s been downright awful all season and a big reason why the Jets have allowed 7 TDs to the position in their last 5 games. I like LaFell in this game as a tournament play… AT RB James White however is the player I’d really focus on this week. White’s not paying huge snaps but is seeing decent targets and has looked fantastic in the “Dion Lewis” role since Lewis went down with injury. He’s someone I’d expect to be used heavily, especially against a Jets D who really excels against the run.

Lastly there’s Rob Gronkowski who’s been consistent, recording 15 fantasy points or more in each of his last three games, but hasn’t recorded any big explosions of late. Gronk is so expensive that he needs to be kept to tournaments but he did put up a monster game versus these same Jets in week 7. If you’re targeting a Patriots game stack this week he’s someone you should probably include.

The Jets Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the best cheap options at QB all year in DFS. Fitz is averaging just a tad under 20 fantasy points a game and has recorded three games of 24 points or more in three of his last four starts. The Pats pass rush is something to be afraid of but with the Patriots likely going pass heavy in this game expect a quick pace of play and for Fitzpatrick to throw a lot too. He’s an interesting option this week if you need a cheap QB.

Brandon Marshall was kept out of the end zone for the first time in six weeks last week and also failed to score the last time he played the Patriots. That being said I’d look for a bounce back game of sorts here. The Pats are generally good against the pass but do give up a lot of fantasy points in garbage time many weeks. More importantly I think Marshall is playing well enough that he’ll be hard to shut down regardless of the score. Both him and teammate Eric Decker, who is averaging 10 +targets over his last three starts, should be considerations this week. Decker could benefit from the added coverage on Marshall as well and at $6500 comes at a cheaper price.

Here’s the snap breakdown for the Jets RBs from week 15: Ivory 28, Powell 36, Ridley 7. At this point Chris Ivory just seems like the starter in name as this backfield is really a ménage a trois for fantasy with Steven Ridley being the person drunkenly picked up by accident on the way back to the hotel room. The truth is this game sets up great for Bilal Powell to again lead the way in snaps for the Jets and at $3900 he makes for a great value play given his level of involvement in the pass game. Powell’s seen 25 targets over his last three games and has ascended to the third favorite target for Ryan Fitzpatrick most weeks. He’s great value and a good bet to catch at least 4-5 balls again.

Gameflow: The spread is only 3 points but I’m not 100% sure it shouldn’t be bigger. The Jets are really struggling as a pass D and the Patriots are getting healthier and getting good production from depth players right now. I like the Jets offense but they struggled with Dallas last week and the Patriots pass rush is really not to be trifled with. I think it stays semi- close but the Patriots end up winning semi-easily.

SCORE PREDICTION: Patriots 27 Jets 21

Primary Targets:

James White $4700
Tom Brady $7500
Bilal Powell $3900

Secondary Targets:

Brandon LaFell $4500
Brandon Marshall $7600
Eric Decker $6500


Steelers @ Ravens

Point Total: 47
Spread: Steelers -10


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Steelers 28th 32nd 2nd 26th 20.5
Ravens 25th 30th 5th 3rd 25.7

The Pittsburgh Steelers get a great matchup this week against a weak Ravens pass defense who might be without the services of its top corner in Jimmy Smith. The Steelers lit up the best secondary in the NFL last week and Ben Roethlisberger will certainly be in a good spot here in week 16 for a big game. Roethlisberger has been an absolute fantasy stud in this offense when healthy throwing for over 300 yards in 5 of his last 6 games. There’s little doubt that he’s one of the highest upside plays at QB this week and at $6800 gives you a discount over higher priced options Cam Newton and Tom Brady.

Here’s the passing targets for the Steelers from their past two games:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Martavis Bryant 9 14
Antonio Brown 11 20
Markus Wheaton 6 11

Last week Martavius Bryant and Markus Wheaton played on 58 and 53 snaps respectively. Both are viable fantasy targets in this Pittsburgh offense and both received double digit targets last week. The Ravens secondary is also weak enough that both will have good matchups and so the only question you need to ask is which one? Bryant certainly has been the more consistent option this year posting 4 games of 18 points or more in the last 5 weeks, and so he’ll be in a great spot for a big game here. I do also really like the price ($4100) on Wheaton who has now seen 6 red zone targets over the last three games and think he’s a great cheap way to get exposure to this offense. Consider both men, especially if you’re going with a Pittsburgh stack this weekend… There’s not much else that needs to be said about Antonio Brown, this is as good a spot as there is for such a talented player. Strategy wise, at $9300, he’s expensive this week and will also be highly owned in tournaments. Getting exposure to him in cash games is probably a good idea but in tournaments fading him isn’t the worst idea, although it will be risky. Brown is playing the best football of anyone at WR (and its not particularly close).

A player who could possibly be slightly overlooked this week from Pittsburgh is DeAngelo Williams. The Steelers are heavy 10 point favorites in this game and even though Williams has a tough matchup against the decent run defense of the Ravens we saw Charcandrick West break through for a decent game last week. Williams is in a good spot here to get 20 plus carries alone and be involved in the pass game. He’s someone I’d look to in tournaments and is a nice pivot off this passing game.

As for the Ravens RB Buck Allen fumbled last week and lost a ton of carries as a result. He should be back in the lead role however this weekend and at only $4200 is a pretty decent value target, especially considering his ability as a pass catcher. If you’re looking for a cheap RB he’s definitely got potential as the Ravens will likely be down a ton at some point and rely on him as a pass catcher a lot, those ppr points could be big for fantasy… At WR the Steelers secondary has been getting burned by opposing teams WRs lately and have allowed 9 TDs in their last 4 games. There’s no guarantee this week with the Ravens WRs (especially considering Jimmy Clausen might be starting) but both Kamar Aiken ($5400) and Jeremy Butler ($3600) make for interesting options. Aiken got 12 targets last week in the Ravens blowout loss and might be in for a similar workload this week, he’s the safest fantasy play if you’re looking to use someone from the Ravens pass game.

The last play I’d recommend from this game, the Steelers D. The Ravens offense is going to be led by a pair of very ineffective and turnover prone QBs. The Steelers have landed themselves 6 INTs in the last 3 games and could be in a spot here to score a DEF TD (or two). At $3100 they’re more affordbale than the top options but have great upside.

Gameflow: Given what the Steelers did to the best defense in football last weekend you can probably guess what my prediction might be for this game. The Steelers offense is an unstoppable force and the Ravens are a small speed bump. Look for Pittsburgh to get up big at some point and then likely start piling on the points.

SCORE PREDICTION: Steelers 34 Ravens 10

Primary Targets:

Antonio Brown $9300
DeAngelo Williams $6500
Ben Roethlisberger $6800
Buck Allen $4200

Secondary Targets:

Martavis Bryant $5600
Markus Wheaton $4100
Kamar Aiken $5400
Steelers D $3100


49ers @ Lions

Point Total: 43
Spread: Lions -9


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
49ers 16th 18th 31st 11th 24.2
Lions 22nd 19th 16th 28th 25.9

The Lions have been much better at home this season than on the road and QB Matt Stafford has twice had games where he’s thrown for 4 TDs or more there this season. The 49ers have been much more solid recently on defense only allowing 2 passing TDs against them in their last 4 games. Stafford has been better recently but the low point total and the improved play from San Fran makes this a risky spot, there’s simply better options at QB out there this week.

Here’s the passing targets from the Lions last couple of games:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Golden Tate 11 6
Calvin Johnson 4 3
Eric Ebron 5 5

The 49ers haven’t allowed a passing TD to a WR in their last four games so this matchup doesn’t appear great for Detroit receivers. The Lions have been moving away from Calvin Johnson in the past couple weeks (due to injury or something else) and Golden Tate has put together two or three big games in a row. Tate isn’t just being used more overall but he’s being used more in the red zone as well and has 5 red zone targets in his last 2 games alone. Tate’s price has gone up recently to $5800 which makes him slightly less appealing in a possible low scoring game, but he’s still got potential and has been a big producer when featured in this offense, he’s someone to at least consider form this game… I know he’s “Calvin Johnson” but for right now you have to avoid him for fantasy. Whether it’s an ankle injury or an organizational decision to move away from him he’s just not producing right now and is priced super high at $7400. I’d want to see some of the old Calvin again before rostering him

AT RB Ameer Abdullah had his best game of the year versus the very weak Saints run defense. Abdullah only played on 42% of the snaps last week but he did play the most out of any Lions RB and played well. The 49ers are a great target for RBs as they’ve allowed 7 TDs to RBs over their last 4 games. Abdullah carries some risk due to his low volume but has tremendous upside due to matchup and his overall explosiveness. He’s an interesting target at only $3800, especially if you need a cheap RB.

On San Francisco there’s not a whole lot of fantasy potential at any position. The 49ers are 9 point underdogs and only projected to score 17 points this week. The Lions secondary has been solid and Darius Slay and Quandre Diggs both have high grades on Pro Football Focus for their coverage. Anquan Boldin had a nice game last week catching 8 passes and is still only $3700, he’s a decent value play but again has limited potential in this offense, that outside of last week, doesn’t throw much on averge. My inclination is that fading the 49ers altogether is better than playing any of them, even at a reduced price.

Lastly, given the low point total and the fact the Lions will be at home playing their defense which is only $2800 makes a ton of sense to me. I love cheap defenses and the Lions have a lot of potential against a low scoring San Fran team. This is a great way to get savings and a potentially high scoring defense.

Gameflow: The 49ers have tightened up defensively a little bit the last couple of weeks but also generally been much poorer on the road this season than at home. The Lions offense has been hit or miss all season but since moving to Golden Tate as the primary receiver they have improved a bit and have generally played better at home. I’m just not sure San Fran can score enough points here to win, so I’ll take the Lions in another ugly game.

SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 24 49ers 17

Primary Targets:

Detroit Defense $2800

Secondary Targets:

Ameer Abdullah $3800
Golden Tate $5800


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