Only two weeks are left in the NFL regular season. Every year it seems like the off-season gets longer and the season itself gets shorter. It’s time to take advantage of this final month or so of daily fantasy football before we start the countdown on the 2016 season.

Happy Holidays!

Chargers @ Raiders

Point Total: 47
Spread: Raiders – 5


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Chargers 15th 4th 26th 21st 24.9
Raiders 21st 17th 19th 30th 25.4

The Raiders have a decent projected point total of 26 in this game. Derek Carr admittedly has not been great in the last three weeks throwing 5 INTs v 6 TDs. Carr’s arm strength and improved downfield throwing make him an interesting play but he’s struggled to end the season. As a team it’s also interesting to note that the Chargers have only allowed 4 passing TDs in their last 5 games. Carr’s a risky play week 16.

Here’s how Carr’s passing targets have been distributed the past couple of weeks:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Amari Cooper 8 10
Michael Crabtree 5 11
Seth Roberts 5 1

Amari Cooper had a real return to form last week against Green Bay’s banged up secondary but has a very tough matchup this week against Jason Verrett, who is now Pro Football Focus’ highest graded player at corner. Verret’s been solid all season (when healthy) and been playing some of his best ball in the last couple of weeks. Cooper’s got to be looked at as a risky play in this game coming off a short week, especially since he still appears to be nursing some kind of foot injury… It’s been a while since Michael Crabtree put up a big fantasy game as his last performance that went for more than 15 fantasy points came in week 9. Crabtree will have the better matchup this week in all likelihood but is still somewhat dicey against a Chargers squad who have allowed the 4th least fantasy points to WRs all season.

RB Latavius Murray again saw 70% of the snaps in week 15 but was held to just 9 fantasy points off of 21 carries and 1 reception. Murray’s ppr points have been up and down all season making him a somewhat risky target too. The matchup this week however is good for him as the Chargers have given up 11 rushing TDs this year, the fourth most in the NFL. I like Murray’s price this week and think his workload gives him a chance at a solid game in this matchup.

The Raiders defense has actually been quite good lately and have an increasingly solid pass rush. They’re now up to 6th in the league in sacks as a team and have one of the best young LBs in the game in Khalil Mack who is up to 10 sacks in his last 4 games. Philip Rivers has really been hit or miss lately recording under ten fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games but over 25 in the other two in that span. Regardless of how well he played last week this is a tougher matchup than people realize for Rivers especially since he’s down so many of his primary weapons.

At WR the Chargers are down to starting Dontrelle Inman and Malcom Floyd every week and there hasn’t been a worse producing duo in the league lately. Inman did play on 89% of the snaps last week and will avoid the solid David Amerson in coverage most likely. He sets up as a good min price punt play once again this week out of sheer volume… At TE Antonio Gates has seen 18 targets over his last two games and gets an Oakland squad who’ve improved their TE coverage as the year has progressed but could still be susceptible to a great pass catching threat like Gates. At $5000 he’s probably got the best matchup of anyone on the field for San Diego this week and should see a lot of targets.

Melvin Gordon is done for the season and last week, with Gordon out, Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead split snaps almost equally. While I wouldn’t expect Woodhead to score four times every week he’ll probably continue to see an uptick in carries and at $4400 could pay off through ppr points alone. This is a good spot for him.

Gameflow: Coming off of an emotional home win on a short week and with nothing to play for I don’t know how there isn’t a huge letdown for the Chargers. The Raiders certainly disappointed last week but have really been trending well defensively lately and will be at home for this game. I like Oakland to win pretty convincingly this week.

SCORE PREDICTION: Raiders 27 Chargers 21

Primary Targets:

Latavius Murray $5000
Danny Woodhead $4400

Secondary Targets:

Dontrelle Inman $3000
Antonio Gates $5000
Oakland D $2000


Redskins @ Eagles

Point Total: 47.5
Spread: Eagles -3


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Redskins 17th 23rd 17th 8th 23.7
Eagles 30th 31st 27th 2nd 25.9

This game has a relatively high point total and features two teams who give up more than 23 points a game every week on defense. The Eagles offense has been trending in the right direction lately and QB Sam Bradford threw for over 300 yards for the second this season last week. The Philly QB has now thrown for 6 TDs versus 3 INTs in his last four games and is in a decent spot this weekend against a bottom tier pass rush and weaker secondary.

WR Jordan Matthews has also come alive recently, recording 3 TDs in his last 4 games. Matthews has all the talent in the world and will be matched up this weekend versus a Redskins secondary who’s given up 7 TDs to WRs in their last 5 games. At only $4400 Matthews is cheap and in a really good spot in a possibly higher scoring game this week, he’s definitely someone to target… TE Zach Ertz is the other Eagles receiver to think about for fantasy. Ertz has actually led the Eagles in targets the last two games and has 22 total targets in that span. At only $3100 he’s all kind of cheap for someone leading his team in receptions over the last two weeks of play.

Here’s the snap counts for the Eagles RBs the past two weeks: Sproles 30, Murray 8, Mathews 26. Its possible Darren Sproles ends up being a decent ppr play this week as he’s been seeing an uptick in snaps recently, especially since Demarco Murray was benched. Sproles is risky but would be the most likely guess to lead the Eagles RBs in touches, catches and fantasy points this week.

Kirk Cousins had a massive week 15 and gets to face another weaker defense this week. Most of Cousins big games have come at home this year and on the road he’s been quite poor posting 6 TDs versus 9 INTs for the season. The matchup for Cousins is decent but the road splits are concerning and make him a risky option for week 16.

Here’s the passing targets for the Redskins the last two weeks:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Desean Jackson 5 8
Jordan Reed 9 7
Pierre Garcon 6 4

Desean Jackson has been great when healthy this season and scored TDs in 4 of his last 5 games. Matched up against the poor Byron Maxwell, who continues to be ranked near the bottom of Pro Football Focus’ Cornerback rankings, Jackson is in a great spot here for a big game. He’s still somewhat underpriced at $5000… TE Jordan Reed’s price has seen a big price jump to $6500. Reed’s played fantastic this year but it should be noted that the Eagle’s do cover the TE position better than most teams. The talent on Reed makes him nearly unstoppable though and so a big game here is certainly possible. The Eagles defense is barely holding things together at the moment.

After some ineffective running Matt Jones started to lose carries last week to Alfred Morris, who played on 30 snaps (to Jones’ 26) and ended the game with 14 car. and 84 yards. The most likely scenario for week 16 is that you see an even split between these players with Jones taking a bigger role in the pass game. Because of the timeshare neither are great targets even against the shaky Eagles run D.

Gameflow: Predicting the NFC East is tough this year. The Skins are coming off a nice win at home while the Eagles got pummeled by a much better Cardinals squad. Most people will be picking the Redskins in this game I assume but with no run game they won’t be able to cut through the Philly D like ARZ did. I’m again calling for the bounce back here and the Philly win. I think their improved play on offense gets them through.

SCORE PREDICTION: Eagles 27 Redskins 23

Primary Targets:

Jordan Matthews $4400
Zach Ertz $3100
Desean Jackson $5000

Secondary Targets:

Sam Bradford $5100
Kirk Cousins $5500
Jordan Reed $6500


Panthers @ Falcons

Point Total: 47.5
Spread: Panthers -7


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Panthers 5th 10th 18th 14th 19.9
Falcons 6th 2nd 29th 29th 22.3

Cam Newton has now put up 5 games of 30 or more fantasy points on DraftKings this season. The Panthers have a chance to wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win this week so resting players won’t be an option for them. The Falcons defense hasn’t been all that bad this season and only allowed one QB to throw for more than 2 TDs in a game. That QB however was Cam Newton back in week 14. Newton’s the highest priced QB on DK this week but still a viable play, expect him to be heavily involved in the run game with Jonathan Stewart out.

Here’s the Panthers passing targets from the last two weeks:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Ted Ginn 3 14
Greg Olsen 4 8
Devin Funchess 6 7

Ted Ginn has been hot fire lately and now put up 25 fantasy points or more in three straight games. Ginn has really become a consistent and trusted target for Cam Newton, even though he still does drop the odd deep ball. Ginn is still under 5k in price at $4900 and should avoid top Atlanta CB Desmond Trufant for the most part in this game. He’s in a nice spot for a good week once again… The Falcons have been poor at covering the TE position this season and last week Julius Thomas led the Jaguars in receiving. The issue with Olsen this week is that his price is now in Gronk territory at $7000. Olsen would need a big game to pay off his salary but it’s definitely possible given the opponent. He’s more of a tournament selection for me week 16.

At RB the Panthers Jonathan Stewart looks likely to sit out week 16 (and possibly even week 17). Last week the snap count for the Panthers RBs looked like this with no Stewart: Artis-Payne 31, Whitaker 26, Tolbert 23. Cameron Artis-Payne took most of early down work in week 15 and was the most productive RB for the Panthers as well. He’s in a good spot to produce this week too against a Falcons defense who’ve allowed the second most rushing TDs to RBs on the season. I like this spot a lot for the Panthers rookie.

ATL QB Matt Ryan has been flat awful for fantasy purposes lately throwing for only one TD or less in each of his last four games. While RB Devonta Freeman has been a solid source of PPR points his viability as a runner has certainly taken a hit lately as he’s only averaged 2.8 ypc over his last 51 carries. Neither of these two players particularly excite me in this matchup. The Panthers defense certainly gave up a lot of points Eli Manning last week but a lot of that came off of late blocked field goals and turnovers. I wouldn’t expect lightning to strike twice here against a solid Panthers D.

At WR Julio Jones certainly got back on track breaking 100 yards receiving and finding the end zone versus the terrible Jaguars defense. The Panthers star CB Josh Norman held Julio to 7 catches and 88 yards last time so we know nothing is automatic here. You can expect Norman to cover Jones a lot but also don’t be shocked if the Falcons scheme Jones away from Norman from time to time as well. All in all, this isn’t a great fantasy matchup for Julio but its not an impossible one either, especially considering he’s likely to see 12+ targets.

Gameflow: Outside of two crazy comeback inspired performances by Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning the Panthers D has been on lockdown all year. I don’t see ATL as having a Giants like run in them and think their one dimensional offense will likely get smashed again by the dominate Panthers D. I’ll gladly take the Panthers here and watch them lock up the first seed this week.

SCORE PREDICTION: Panthers 24 Falcons 17

Primary Targets:

Cam Newton $7500

Secondary Targets:

Cameron Artis-Payne $4300
Panthers D $3700
Greg Olsen $7000


Bears @ Buccaneers

Point Total: 46
Spread: Bucs -3


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Bears 19th 5th 21st 10th 25.1
Bucs 18th 25th 7th 17th 25.2

This game has a decent point total and features two run first teams who are just playing out the string. The Bears have been rotating Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford at RB lately with both men taking about half the snaps every week. Neither man is set for huge volume and will be against Tampa’s very potent run defense who did a good job limiting Todd Gurley last week. This isn’t a great spot for big production from either Bears RB and I’d be more inclined to consider the Bucs defense as a cheap flyer play than to roster either a Chicago RB or their QB Jay Cutler this weekend.

Bears WR Alshon Jeffery was injured in last weeks game and is questionable to play this week. Jeffery would have a great matchup versus a Bucs secondary who allowed Kenny Britt to destroy them on a couple long plays week 15. I’d definitely want to see Jeffery practice in full at some point in the week before using him in this game. Watch the news later in the week and use caution… The biggest beneficiary if Jeffery misses time would likely be TE Zach Miller who came alive late last week in garbage time. Miller would be the best passing option left for QB Jay Cutler with Jeffery out and Martellus Bennett done for the year. He’s caught 11 passes over the last two games and would get a Tampa Bay D who allowed both Ben Watson and Jared Cook to go over 60 yards receiving versus them the last two weeks. He’d a be a great bet for a decent game if Alshon sat this Sunday.

At QB for Tampa, Jameis Winston threw more than 40 times for only the second time all season last week and was able to produce a big game in garbage time as a result. I expect the Bucs to go more run heavy this week but could see Winston having a better game here versus the weaker pass rush of the Bears. The run first nature of the Bucs though may limit his upside.

At RB the breakdown in snaps for the Buccaneers looked like this last week: Doug Martin 52, Charles Sims 29. Martin has run well all year but keeps losing a decent amount of work to Sims, especially in the pass game. Coming off a few slow games and now higher priced I’d venture to guess Martin will be low owned this week at his $6600 price tag. With the Bucs small favorites however there is a chance that Martin gets a big workload here and he makes for an intriguing and low owned tournament option.

Here’s the Bucs passing targets from the last two weeks of play:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Mike Evans 4 17
Austin Seferian Jenkins 7 6
Adam Humphries 3 6

The Bears haven’t given up a ton of yardage to WRs lately but they have given up 5 TDs to the position over their last 5 games. WR Mike Evans had a big day receiving-wise last week even without finding the end zone. While some of Evans big day was game flow induced without Vincent Jackson in the lineup he’s generally seen a big bump in passing targets. Evans is going to have at least a 5-inch height advantage over CB Tracy Porter this weekend and is in a good spot here without VJax in the lineup for a big game. He might be overlooked by many people this week.

Gameflow: The Bucs are coming off a bad game last weekend versus the Rams but are in a good spot here to rebound versus a banged up Bears team. The Bears best weapons are all out, injured or just not playing that much which means Tampa will have a good chance to control the pace of this game and grind out a win. I also like Mike Evans in this spot and think Tampa will have a much better time of it on offense than the Bears.

SCORE PREDICTION: Bucs 24 Bears 20

Primary Targets:

Zach Miller $4000
Mike Evans $7300

Secondary Targets:

Bucs D $2500
Alshon Jeffery $7200 (if healthy)
Doug Martin $6600


Browns @ Chiefs

Point Total: 42.5
Spread: Chiefs -12.5


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Browns 27th 26th 20th 6th 27.6
Chiefs 9th 28th 3rd 1st 18.4

The Chiefs defense has now picked off opposing QBs 6 times in their last 3 games and been a monster for fantasy purposes scoring 14 and 21 fantasy points in their last two outings. The Chiefs are also stout against the run and have recorded the third most sacks in the league as a team. Cleveland QB Johnny Manziel played well last weekend but he’s not in a strong spot here to do much for fantasy purposes. Manziel hasn’t turned the ball over much (3 INTs in 3 games) which kills Kansas City’s upside a little bit but he’ll still be on the road and QB’ing a Browns team who has scored 10-9-13 in their last three road games. I’d avoid almost all of the Cleveland players and really make the Chiefs a consideration on defense, even at their high price point.

Receiving wise, Cleveland TE Gary Barnidge caught a TD last week early but then was almost completely shut down. The Chiefs have murdered opposing TEs, giving up the fewest fantasy points against to that position all season. This isn’t a great matchup or week to consider him in DFS… A WR the Chiefs secondary has given up some points to opposing WRs and last week Kamar Aiken posted his best game of the season versus KC. I might consider WR Travis Benjamin as a bounce back play here for that reason. Benjamin was locked down by the Seahawks last week but might have a better shot at busting a big play in this one.

As for the Chiefs here’s their passing targets from the last two games:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Jeremy Maclin 8 10
Travis Kelce 5 7
Albert Wilson 6 4

Jeremy Maclin continues to thrive even in this low volume pass offense. This week Maclin will be going up against a Cleveland secondary who got burned for three TDs by speedy/shifty WRs Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin and will be in a great spot in my estimation for a big game. The worry with Maclin is always that game flow limits his opportunities but the fact he’s still seeing 8-10 targets a week is pretty comforting… TE Travis Kelce came on a bit last week catching over 5 balls for the first time since week 8. At only $4300 Kelce’s price has come down to manageable territory now but he’s still been held out of the end zone in three straight games and only has 4 on the year. He’s a consistent option but carries less upside at this point than some other plays around his price.

At RB Charcandrick West earned most of the carries for the Chiefs in week 15 but might cede some work to Spencer Ware in this game. Ware missed last week with bruised ribs but expects to be active and involved this week for the Chiefs. The matchup here is good for both these backs but West has seen a big price jump up to $5700 unfortunately which makes him to tough to roster if Ware is going to be involved. A big game is possible for West here given how much KC is favoured by but there are better values on this slate for DFS purposes. Consider West a semi-risky but high upside option week 16.

Gameflow: The Browns are the Browns and the Chiefs are absolutely rolling through weak teams right now. Cleveland’s defense has picked up its play a bit but they still struggle against the pass and Jeremy Maclin is in a good spot to make them pay this week. I’d expect KC to get out to a lead and then just roll.

SCORE PREDICTION: Chiefs 27 Browns 13

Primary Targets:

Jeremy Maclin $6000
Chiefs D $4200

Secondary Targets:

Travis Kelce $4300
Charcandrick West $5700 (watch news on Ware)


Cowboys @ Bills

Point Total: 42.5
Spread: Bills -6


DvP Ranks vs QB vs RB vs WR vs TE PPGA
Cowboys 4th 6th 28th 4th 23.1
Bills 20th 24th 13th 15th 24

The Bills secondary has been shredded recently (especially last week) and the loss of their top cornerback Stephon Gilmore for the year really hurts them as a unit. Fortunately for them the Cowboys are now starting Kellen Moore at QB and have been one of the worst passing offenses all season. Dez Bryant is in a good matchup but looks semi-disinterested (understandable) and hasn’t caught more than 4 balls in a game since week 10. I’d love to recommend Dez since he’s only $5500 now but the run-first, kill-the-clock mentality of the Cowboys really hurts his chances.

At RB it is still the Darren McFadden show for the most part as he’s playing on over 70% of the snaps and seeing at least 15 carries most weeks for Dallas. While the Bills run defense is still better than their pass defense it’s by no means impenetrable and has given up 5 TDs to the RB position over their last 5 games. I don’t love the Dallas offense at all but at only $4900 there’s worse plays than McFadden this week at RB, a player who’s in a decent matchup and still priced pretty fairly.

The Bills lost Running Back Lesean McCoy for year last week and rookie RB Karlos Williams is slightly banged up as well but looks likely to play. Williams will likely split time with journeyman Mike Gillislee this week which isn’t ideal but I’d still consider Williams as the better play and one more likely to see the bulk of the carries if he’s active and healthy. At $4500 Williams has proven to be a great pass catcher and would be in a good spot this week to produce against Dallas who has given up four TDs to RBs the last two games and also allowed 15 receptions to RBs in that same time frame.

Here’s the Buffalo passing targets from the last two weeks:


Player Week 14 Week 15
Sammy Watkins 12 10
Robert Woods 6 6
Chris Hogan 5 4

Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins have been on a tear lately with Taylor and Watkins connecting on 6 TDs in their last 4 games, many of which have been of the long variety. While the matchup with the Cowboys personnel wise doesn’t necessarily scare me the pace of play of the Cowboys does. Dallas plays slowly and generally is very good at limiting big games form opposing QBs and WRs. In fact, on the entire year no QB has thrown for more than 2 TD passes in a game versus the Cowboys. Watkins is playing at such a high level right now that perhaps the matchup doesn’t matter, especially since he’s getting 10+ targets every week. The bottom line is that Watkins is in a tough matchup but one that his talent and usage could still overcome this weekend.

Gameflow: This looks like it will be one of the uglier games of the week. The Cowboys play slowly and are starting their fourth different QB of the year. The Bills offense has been decent lately and while they have massive holes on defense I don’t see the Cowboys as having the tools or fortitude to make them pay.

SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 24 Cowboys 17

Primary Targets:

Karlos Williams $4500 (if healthy)

Secondary Targets:

Darren McFadden $4900
Bills D $3200
Sammy Watkins $6700


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