What does an elite fantasy football wide receiver look like?
It’s a simple question with complicated answers. After all, Antonio Brown wins in a far different manner than Allen Robinson. But as the NFL Draft approaches, I wanted to explore commonalities between wideouts who have finished among the top-10 in DraftKings points per game across the last five seasons.
There are 29 different wide receivers who have cracked the top-10 since 2011 (minimum eight games):
|Player Name||Height (Inches)||Weight (Pounds)||Forty (Seconds)||Vertical (Inches)||Broad (Inches)||Pick Numer|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||71||198||4.43||38.5||122||12|
- 100 percent at least 5-9
- 65.5 percent at least 6-0
- 51.7 percent at least 6-2
- 37.9 percent at least 6-3
- 34.5 percent under six feet
- 62.0 percent at least 200 pounds
- 51.7 percent at least 210 pounds
- 34.4 percent at least 220 pounds
- 38.0 percent under 200 pounds
- 89.6 percent under 4.6
- 75.8 percent under 4.55
- 51.7 percent under 4.50
- 27.5 percent under 4.45
- 17.2 percent top-10
- 44.8 percent first round
- 75.8 percent top-100
- 78.2 percent at least 120 inches
- 84.0 percent at least 35 inches
Based on the above trends, the perfect fantasy WR would look something like this: At least 6-foot-2, at least 210 pounds, sub-4.5 speed, at least 120-inch broad jump, at least 35-inch vertical jump and drafted in the first round. Unfortunately, that doesn’t exist in this draft class.
Baylor’s Corey Coleman has the best profile in this class. Although he’s below optimal size at 5’11/194, we can see that isn’t a nail in the coffin by any means. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders, Randall Cobb and T.Y. Hilton have each posted top-10 DK PPG seasons in the last two years. Coleman’s 4.40 speed, 129-inch broad jump and 40.5-inch vertical are all positive indicators. He’ll almost certainly go in the first round Thursday night.
The data above does not bode well for Ole Miss’ WR Laquon Treadwell. The numbers show that 89 percent of the DK top-10s ran faster than a 4.60, 78 percent had at least a 120-inch broad jump and 84.0 percent posted a minimum 33-inch vertical. Treadwell’s numbers were 4.63, 117-inch broad jump and 33-inch vertical. If he goes on to hit the top-10 in DK points per game for a season, he’ll be an outlier from a measurable standpoint.
The prospect who checks most of the boxes is TCU’s Josh Doctson. He stands in at 6’2/202, putting him on the plus side of the frame percentages. He also ran a 4.50 and was explosive in both the vertical (41 inches) and broad jump (131 inches). Doctson, very likely to go in the first round as well, fits the bill when we’re talking about what an elite fantasy football wide receiver looks like.
So when wide receivers come off the board in this week’s draft, I’ll be thinking about how they fit with their new team and how their measureables compare with the best in the NFL. Here are the top-15 WR prospects from this year’s draft class:
|Player Name||Height (Inches)||Weight (Pounds)||Forty (Seconds)||Vertical (Inches)||Broad (Inches)|