Week 1 has come and gone, and not without it’s fair share of injuries. We look forward to what Week 2 has to offer. Let’s get you set for this slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Highest Scoring Game
New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants
Projected Point Total: 52.5 points
Boy, this game certainly has the potential to be a shootout. If the Raiders vs. Saints game was any indication from Week 1, this will certainly feature some fireworks. We’ve talked so many times about how poor this Saints defense is, and they certainly proved that to be true in Week 1. Derek Carr was able to complete 24/38 passes for 319 yards with a touchdown. The Saints are now without their top corner Delvin Breaux, and Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will look to take advantage. If you remember, Beckham put on a clinic against this Saints defense last game against them, catching 8/9 targets for 130 yards and three touchdowns.
Let’s not forget, the Giants weren’t anything special defensively last season either, allowing the most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2015. With 4,920 yards allowed, they beat out the Saints by 165 yards to lead the league. What makes the Saints so dangerous, in my opinion, is how many options Drew Brees has at his disposal. With Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and Michael Thomas all getting at least six targets last week against the Raiders, you can expect more of the same in this matchup. Don’t get me wrong, the Giants certainly invested in their defense in the offseason, but I don’t see that stopping an offensive explosion on Sunday.
Lowest Scoring Game
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Projected Point Total: 41 points
Playing on Thursday night, these two division rivals see the lowest projected point total. The biggest news coming out of this game is the health of Sammy Watkins. Early reports have him as playing in this one, but realistically, what can we expect from him with his foot injury? IF Watkins does indeed miss Week 2, it drops the value of Tyord Taylor immensely. The Jets once again project to have one of the best defenses in the league, and Buffalo isn’t exactly bringing the heat in terms of offense. With an implied total of 21 for the Jets and 20 for the Bills, I’m glad this game is taking place on Thursday so that I can stay far, far away from this one. Only the Jets defense is in play for me.
(All rankings are based off of 2015 stats)
Worst QB Matchups
1. Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos – The Broncos lead the league in defense against opposing quarterbacks last season, allowing 19 passing touchdowns with 14 interceptions. Opposing QB’s completed 60% of their passes for 3,544 yards which was the least amount allowed by any team last season.
2. Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks ranked number two against QB’s last season, allowing a league low 14 passing touchdowns while grabbing 14 interceptions. With a 60% completion rate, opposing QB’s grabbed 3,619 yards, the second lowest total in the league in 2015.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals held Ben Roethlisberger to just 229 yards last season in the playoffs with one passing touchdown. Last season, the Bengals were fantastic against opposing QBs, allowing 18 passing touchdowns to 21 interceptions. The Bengals and Panthers were the only teams last season to own more interceptions than touchdowns allowed.
Best QB Matchups
1. New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints take on the Giants with their league worst defense. Last season, the Saints allowed a league leading 45 passing touchdowns while only grabbing nine interceptions. The 4,755 passing yards were the second most in the league allowed on a 68% completion rate.
2. Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles did a fantastic job in Week 1, but then again, that was against the Browns. Last season, the Eagles allowed 36 passing touchdowns while taking down 15 interceptions. With the 62% completion rate, the Eagles allowed 4,480 passing yards.
*3. New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants – Another great reason why this game has the highest projected total of the week, the Giants allowed the most passing yards in the league last season at 4,920. With 31 passing touchdowns allowed compared to the 15 interceptions, I’m ready for a shootout here in Week 2.
Worst RB Matchups
1. Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks – After a fairly easy week against the Dolphins run last week, a tougher matchup is ahead for the Seahawks in Week 2 against Todd Gurley. Last season, the Seahawks an average of 3.5 YPC with just five rushing touchdowns allowed.
2. Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets – With the injury to Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy suddenly becomes the Bills most potent weapon. He has a fairly tough matchup against a Jets defense that allowed a league low two rushing touchdowns with just 3.3 YPC. For what it’s worth, McCoy averaged 5.9 YPC on 19 carries.
3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Always seems to be forgotten how good the Steelers were against the run last season. Allowing just four rushing touchdowns, the Steelers held opposing running backs to just 3.8 YPC.
Best RB Matchups
1. New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins – It’s always impossible to predict how the Patriots will attack any game, but exploiting the Dolphins’ run defense is a good place to start. The Dolphins allowed 13 rushing touchdowns last season while giving up 4.1 YPC.
2. Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers weren’t exactly the poster child for stopping the run last season, as they lead the league with 18 rushing touchdowns allowed. As if that wasn’t bad enough, opposing backs gained 4.1 YPC. However, they definitely showed promise on Monday night against one of the league’s best rushers, Todd Gurley.
3. New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints – Here we go with the Saints again. Allowing 10 rushing touchdowns, the Saints allowed a putrid five YPC to opposing running backs. For what it’s worth, they allowed three rushing touchdowns last week on 151 yards in 24 carries.
Worst WR Matchups
1. Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos – The Broncos suffocated opposing wide outs last season, and they continued to do so last week. In 2015, The Broncos allowed only seven touchdowns with a 58% completion rate.
2. Oakland Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons will certainly have their hands full when they visit Oakland for their Week 2 matchup. Last season, the Falcons were tied with the Broncos for only seven touchdowns allowed with a 58% completion rate.
3. Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks allowed the least amount of passing touchdowns last season, as they kept the Dolphins off the board in Week 1. In 2015, they allowed just a 56% completion rate.
Best WR Matchups
1. Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns – Statistically, the Browns were one of the worst passing defenses in the league last season. They allowed 22 passing touchdowns with a 60% completion rate.
2. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Perfect example as to why people forget how good the Steelers were against the run, as opposing wide receivers certainly had their way last season. With 19 passing touchdowns allowed, the Steelers allowed a 64% completion rate on a league leading 3,088 passing yards.
3. Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins – The Redskins certainly had their issues with opposing wideouts last season, but the addition of Josh Norman will certainly soften that blow in 2016. With 23 passing touchdowns allowed and a 58% completion rate, one can certainly expect those numbers to drop this season. I’m willing to overlook the Antonio Brown explosion on Monday night against this Redskins secondary, as he does that to most every team.
Worst TE Matchups
1. Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs were the number one ranked defense against the tight end position last season, allowing just three touchdowns with a 54% completion rate.
2. Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets – Like their run defense, the Jets were elite against opposing tight ends. In 2015, the Jets held opposing tight ends to two touchdowns with a 63% completion rate on 108 targets.
3. Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens check in as number three on our list against tight ends from 2015, with just three touchdowns and a 63% completion rate.
Best TE Matchups
1. New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints – As if you haven’t got the hint already about the Saints defense, they were the worst against tight ends in 2015, allowing 11 touchdowns and an absurd 75% completion rate on 128 targets.
2. New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants – Well then, the two worst teams against tight ends going toe to toe in Week 2. The Giants allowed nine touchdowns with a league leading 1,303 yards.
3. Atlanta Falcons vs. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders were tied with the Detroit Lions for the league lead in touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season with 12. All that damage was done on a 60% completion rate on 133 targets.
Lineup Quick Hits
QB To Build Lineups Around…
Drew Brees ($8,200) – I realize that this is most likely pretty obvious, but I think you have some fantastic upside with Brees, as I expect many to be on the Manning/Odell train. Bress it the most expensive QB on the slate at $8,200, but his constant airing of the ball is what has me here. The last time these two met, Brees was39/50 with an astonishing 511 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. We can’t expect a performance like that again, but if Odell does indeed shred this defense (as he should) you know Brees will be doing his thing. I also like Bress because of who I’m pairing him with…..
WR To Pair Him With…
Willie Snead ($5,800) – At just $5,800, Snead brings tremendous value as he’s quickly becoming a trusted receiver for Bress. Just last week, Snead saw a team leading nine targets and hauled in all of them for 172 yards and a touchdown. Many who take Brees will pair him with Cooks, and rightfully so, but the $2,200 savings you get from Snead is huge. I don’t think Snead will see low ownership, especially after his performance last week, but I think it may be a bit lower than you’ll expect.
The Top RB Will Be…
Melvin Gordon ($4,800) Besides the fact that Melvin Gordon put on a show in week one, the loss of Keenan Allen for the season makes Gordon intriguing all around. Gordon was also featured in the passing game last season and may be doing so again this season. After Allen was lost for the remainder of 2015, Gordon started seeing a couple of added targets per game, highlighted by five against, you guessed it, the Jacksonville Jaguars. I am a bit concerned that Gordon didn’t the majority of his work in short showings, as he saw just 23 snaps compared to Danny Woodhead’s 50. With that being said, I’m a big fan of his price compared to what he CAN do, especially with the loss of Allen.
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