MATCHUP TO WATCH: BUCCANEERS VS. SAINTS


We have a massive 14-game slate this week that I will cover in this article. Let’s get you ready, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Point Total – 51 points

The Saints and Buccaneers opened as the highest projected scoring game of the week. Brees and the Saints are fresh off a disappointing outing against the Lions that saw them score only 13 points in what was supposed to be the highest scoring game of the week. Even though Brees threw for over 300 yards, he didn’t throw a touchdown for the first time since November 29th, 2015. He is in a decent spot in Week 14 against a Tampa Bay defense that’s allowing an average of 264 passing yards per game with 22 touchdowns. As noted many times before, Brees has historical home/road splits, averaging 63 passing yards less per game on the road.

As for Jameis Winston, he’s also coming off a somewhat disappointing week, at least compared to his recent performance. Scoring 16.3 DraftKings points last week, Winston went 20-30 for 280 yards and a touchdown against the San Diego Chargers. He’ll now set his sights on a Saints defense that’s allowing an average of 286 passing yards per game with 19 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.

Lowest Scoring Game

Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Point Total – 40 points

From one tough matchup to another, Blake Bortles will likely struggle for a second week in a row. After managing just 181 passing yards against the Broncos last week, Bortles will be facing a Vikings defense that’s holding opposing QBs to an average of 219 passing yards per game. The Vikings are tied for third in the league with 12 interceptions this season, which doesn’t bode well for Bortles’ outlook. In 12 games this season, Bortles has been picked at least twice five times, making the Vikings’ defense an elite option this week.

While the Vikings certainly don’t have any real big playmakers on their offense, Adam Thielen has drawn 20 targets over the past two weeks. All in all, this game doesn’t carry much excitement for fantasy players.


DvP Matchups

Quarterback

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Worst QB Matchups

1. Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos – The Broncos got back on track in Week 13 against the Jaguars and remain the top defense against opposing quarterbacks. Tied for the least amount of passing touchdowns allowed with 10, opposing QBs are only averaging 208 passing yards per game against them.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings – What a brutal schedule for the Jaguars, as they come off their loss to the Broncos only to face a Vikings defense that’s limited opposing passers to an average of 219 passing yards per game.

3. Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants – Dak Prescott was held to under 200 passing yards for a second straight week, and it doesn’t get easier in Week 15. He’ll match up against a Giants defense that has allowed just 12 passing touchdowns on the year. However, they have allowed a generous 278 passing yards per game.

Best QB Matchups

1. L.A. Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons – After getting rattled by the Patriots last week, Jared Goff will have a nice opportunity to redeem himself this week. He takes on a Falcons’ defense that’s given up 26 touchdowns while also allowing an average of 294 passing yards per game.

2. Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns – Ah yes, the Browns’ “defense.” Andy Dalton will be looking forward to this matchup against a Cleveland team that’s allowed a league-leading 28 touchdowns and an average of 268 passing yards per game.

3. Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts – It’s been awhile since the Colts have made this list, and the Texans will look to benefit. Indy has given up 23 touchdowns along with an average of 284 passing yards per game this year.


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Running Back

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Worst RB Matchups

1. Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals – Jay Ajayi didn’t reach the end zone last week, but he did have a decent game against a tough Baltimore defense. He’ll be tested once again against a Cardinals’ defense that’s allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, but a mere 3.3 YPC.

2. New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys – This Dallas defense has stifled opposing running backs this season. The Cowboys are giving up 4.3 YPC, but they have only allowed five rushing touchdowns to date.

3. Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Packers’ running back situation hasn’t been ideal as of late, and now they have a tough matchup to boot. They’ll take on a Seattle defense thats allowed six rushing touchdowns and an average of 3.6 YPC on the season.

Best RB Matchups

1. New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers – This is a fantastic spot for the Jets’ running backs, as they take on a very generous 49ers defense. With a league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns allowed, opposing backs are gaining an average of 5.1 YPC against San Francisco.

2. Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns – With Jeremy Hill dominating the carries for the Bengals, he has a huge opportunity against the Browns this week. They’ve allowed 13 rushing touchdowns and an average of 4.5 YPC.

3. L.A. Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons – Todd Gurley has been a massive disappointment this season, but he’s in a great spot this week against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and an average of 4.1 YPC. For what it’s worth, the Falcons have allowed the most passing yards to running backs at 779 with five touchdowns on the season as well.


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Wide Receiver

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Worst WR Matchups

1. Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos – Not much to love here for the Titans, as they take on the Broncos’ brick wall defense. Opposing wide receivers have caught only six touchdowns, which is the lowest number in the league. Mix that in with an average of 107 receiving yards per game and we officially have one of the most daunting matchups on the slate.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings – Against opposing wide receivers, the Vikings have conceded just nine receiving touchdowns and an average of 122 receiving yards per game.

3. Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have been fantastic against opposing wide receivers, making this a tough spot for the Bills. The Steelers have given up just seven touchdowns, and opposing wideouts are averaging 160 receiving yards per game.

Best WR Matchups

1. New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers – This is an opportunity for the Jets’ wide receivers to flourish, as they take on this 49ers’ “defense.” Coming into this week, the Niners have allowed a league-leading 20 touchdowns and an average of 171 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.

2. Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers – The Packers have been allowing a ton of offense through the air and have to deal with the Seahawks this week. With 18 touchdowns allowed and an average of 172 receiving yards given up per game, Russell Wilson should have plenty of opportunities in this one.

3. Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans – We hear very little about the Broncos’ offense this season, but that could change in Week 14. With a matchup against the Titans, they’ll face a defense that’s allowed 15 touchdowns and an average of 187 receiving yards per game to WRs.


Tight End

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Worst TE Matchups

1. Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals – The Dolphins don’t utilize their tight end position much to begin with, but they face the only defense that hasn’t allowed a TD to one so far this season.

2. Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Switching to a team that DOES use their tight ends, the Redskins will take on the Eagles this week. Philly has only allowed four touchdowns and an average of just 27 receiving yards per game to the tight end position. Washington tight ends have accounted for 31% of the team’s receptions, the second highest in the league.

3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans – The Colts will matchup against a Texans’ defense that’s allowed just three touchdowns and an average of 35 receiving yards per game.

Best TE Matchups

1. San Diego Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers – One of Phillip Rivers’ favorite red zone targets continues to be Antonio Gates, making him a potential value play this week. The Panthers have allowed nine touchdowns and an average of 62 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. Gates has seen 14 targets inside the 20 and 5 inside the 10.

2. Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions – It’s been the same old story all season, roster the tight end facing the Lions. I don’t think much will change this week either. The Lions have allowed nine touchdowns and an average of 60 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs.

3. Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns – The Browns have allowed nine passing touchdowns and an average of 65 receiving yards per game to the tight end position.


Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

NameTeamLast Week’s OPPTargets
Odell BeckhamNYGPIT16
Zach ErtzPHICIN15
Jarvis LandryMIABAL14
Robby AndersonNYJIND12
David JohnsonARZWAS12
Kyle RudolphMINDAL12
Larry FitzgeraldARZWAS11
Ladarius GreenPITNYG11
Dorial Green-BeckhamPHICIN10
T.Y. HiltonINDNYJ10

Last Three Week Leaders

NameTeamLast 3 WeeksAvg. Targets
Odell BeckhamNYG3411.3
David JohnsonARZ3411.3
Zach ErtzPHI3210.7
Travis KelceKC3210.7
Mike EvansTB3010
Dorial Green-BeckhamPHI289.3
Jordy NelsonGB279
Jarvis LandryMIA268.7
C.J. FiedorowiczHOU258.3
Brandon LaFellCIN258.3


Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Eli Manning ($5,500) – I’m going to call this the “Discount Dandy” section for this week, which is why I’m landing on Manning. Manning is at his lowest price point of the season ($5,500), coming off a fairly disappointing start against the Steelers. He’ll be facing a Dallas team that he completed 19-28 passes against for 207 yards and three touchdowns earlier this season. At that time, his $7,500 price tag made that a disappointing start, but at $5,500? Sign me up. The Cowboys are surrendering an average of 285 passing yards per game this season with 20 touchdowns allowed. For how good they are against the run, Manning should be throwing plenty.

WR To Pair Him With…

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,000) – At his lowest price of the season, I have no doubt Beckham will be highly owned. I certainly can’t say the same for Manning, but the pairing will leave you with an average of $5,214 to fill out the rest of your roster. In the first week of the season, Beckham was a major bust at $9,300, catching 4/8 targets for 73 yards and no touchdowns. After some early season struggles, Beckham is back to being a target monster and putting up the fantasy points. Drawing 27 targets in the past two games, Beckham will be playing at home where he’s thrived this season.

The Top RB Will Be…

DeMarco Murray ($7,000) – David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are obviously very much in play as always, but I think Murray will be overlooked this week. His matchup against the Broncos will turn many people off, but you may not realize how poorly thee Broncos have been defending against the run. Opposing running backs are averaging 4.1 YPC against this team with seven rushing touchdowns. The Titans average the third most rushing yards per game at 142, trailing only the Bills and the Cowboys, so this mentality should play right into the Broncos’ weakness.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.