No matter how you did in Week 13, that all gets erased as of today. We start to prepare for Week 14, and I have you covered from top to bottom. Let’s get right to all the information and get you ready to build those lineups. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
The Vegas Lines
Highest Scoring Games
Below are the three highest scoring projected games and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under: 50.5 points
Line: Tampa Bay -4
We have lots and lots of fantasy goodness in this game. The Saints and their “defense” going up against a fully healthy Tampa Bay team that keeps getting more and more of their passing weapons back on the field. With Vincent Jackson and (sit down for this one) Austin Seferian-Jenkins back on the field, Jameis Winston has a plethora of options to target in what’s projected to be the highest total of the week. Winston faced a similar defense in the Philadelphia Eagles three weeks back and put up some fantastic numbers. He completed 19/29 passes for 246 with five touchdowns and no interceptions. I would never go as far to say “repeat performance” but I don’t think it’s out of the realm to expect a multi-touchdown game here. Literally everyone on TB feels like a viable target and ones I fully expect to be highly owned.
On the Saints side, the narrative here is that Drew Brees is not the Drew Brees we see at home. I can get on board with that. On the road, Brees is averaging 276 passing yards per game with six touchdowns. At home, 350 yards with 17 touchdowns. A vast difference for sure. These teams have met before in week two and Brees was only able to manage to complete 24/38 passes for 255 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Tampa defense has certainly improved since that time, but this Saints offense was also able to shred a Panthers defense for 30 points. No matter what side you look at, we certainly have plenty of players to look at. Enjoy this one.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under: 48.5 points
Line: Cincinnati -3
We have two teams whose offenses are clicking at the same time AND so are their defenses. Just a matter of who will prevail in this one. The Steelers are coming off a huge 45-10 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, a team whom Ben Roethlisberger completed 24/39 passes for 364 yards with four touchdowns. When Roethlisberger has been healthy this season, he’s been an absolutely dominating force at QB. He’s averaging 338 passing yards per game this season with at least one touchdown in all but one game, which occurred in week three when he was initially injured. With his surrounding cast of receivers, Big Ben has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks on the season. Even with the Bengal defense only allowing 10 points in their last two matchups, I think were set to see some big scoring in this one.
Let’s also not discount the fact that Andy Dalton seems to be getting back on track after some relatively lackluster performances in weeks eight and ten. In his last two starts against the Rams and Browns, Dalton has thrown for 453 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. Three of those touchdowns came against a tough Rams defense and saw Dalton score 20.7 DraftKings points in that matchup. The Steelers defense has certainly been a hit or miss this season. The Steelers falter against the pass, which would make a Dalton/Green pairing an attractive matchup this week. Expect some points in this one and certainly don’t forget about this game when building your lineups.
3) New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Over/Under: 47 Points
Even with a relatively high score slated for this game, I don’t love it. If there was ever a time this season I expected to see something big out of Ryan Tannehill, it was last week against the Ravens. Instead, we were saddled with 8.5 DraftKings points, coming from his 9/19 performance for 86 yards and one touchdown. Cue the party poppers for that one. He’s once again in a good spot going up against the flimsy Giants defense, but I can’t say I’m jumping at the chance to roster Tannehill or for that matter, any of his offensive choices. But in a GPP, a performance like last week is exactly the reason he could be a great candidate for a bounce back, especially with the prospect that he will be extremely low owned.
When we look at the Giants, Eli Manning has been as inconsistent as it gets. After his monster 41 DraftKings point performance against the Saints, Manning has thrown for 213, 361, 321 and 297 yards with a 7:6 TD: INT ratio. The Dolphins are certainly no stranger to grabbing interceptions on the season, as they have 11 to boast. The obvious player to look at in this one would be Odell Beckham, as he’s basically matchup proof at this point, scoring in double-digit DraftKings points in nine of 13 games this season. Beckham is also seeing double-digit targets in his last four games, averaging 14.5 over that time span. I don’t hate this game, but I certainly don’t love it either. Watch the line movement on this one as the week progress to get a better feel of how this game will go.
Defense vs. Position Matchup Breakdown
Worst DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders – In a shock to no one, the Broncos remain the top defense at defending against opposing quarterbacks. On the season, the Broncos have allowed a league-low 11 passing touchdowns, which is tied with Seattle, to go along with 11 interceptions.The 2601 passing yards from the quarterback position is the lowest in the league on a 59% completion rate.
2) Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers – This will certainly be an interesting spot for the undefeated Panthers, taking on a solid Falcons defense. The Falcons have allowed 14 passing touchdowns this season while grabbing 14 interceptions. They’re allowing a 65% completion rate on 423 targets thus far in the season. Of course, with Newton being so mobile, the Falcons have allowed only 102 rushing yards by the QB, which is the fourth least amount in the league. Take that with a grain of salt, as a number of mobile quarterbacks in the NFL are few and far between.
3) Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – All three of these teams in this section are doing their best to match how many touchdowns they give up with interceptions they grab. On the season, the Bengals have allowed 15 passing touchdowns with, you guessed it, 15 interceptions. They’re allowing a 64% completion rate on 462 targets.
Best DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – If you could pick any team to face if you’re an opposing quarterback, you have to love playing the Saints. They’ve allowed an astronomical 35 passing touchdowns this season, which leads the league by seven. Tack on the fact that they’ve only grabbed six interceptions and you can see why this is a tasty matchup for Jameis Winston. The 3617 passing yards is the second most in the league on a 67% completion rate.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts – I wish I liked this spot for the Colts more than I do, as it’s been tough to trust their consistency with Matt Hasselback at QB. On the year, the Jaguars have allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season while only grabbing six interceptions. They’re allowing a 66% completion rate on 447 targets. Interestingly enough, they’ve also allowed the second most rushing yards from a QB at 274 with two rushing touchdowns. Just don’t expect Hasselback to become the next Cam Newton in this one.
3) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills– Back to back tough matchups for the Eagles, who were able to take down the Patriots last week. This week, they face a red hot Tyrod Taylor. On the season, the Eagles have allowed 28 passing touchdowns with 14 interceptions. The Eagles have allowed a 63% completion rate on 474 targets. In terms of rushing, the Eagles are tied with six other teams for allowing three rushing touchdowns on the season, which leads the league.
Worst DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens – Lots of people were on Adrian Peterson last week, claiming the Seahawks run defense isn’t as good as advertised. That didn’t work out so well. The Seahawks have been great against the run this season. They’ve allowed four rushing touchdowns this season with an average of 3.5 YPC. With Javorius Allen emerging as a threat in the passing game for the Ravens, it should be noted that the Seahawks are one of three teams that have not allowed a passing touchdown to a RB and are allowing a 68% completion rate on 94 targets.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cinncinatti Bengals – I still to this day believe the Steelers defense is one that is often overlooked when it comes to defending against the run. On the season, they’ve allowed only three rushing touchdowns while managing to hold opposing running backs to an average of 3.8 YPC.
3) New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans – The Titans really don’t have much of a run game, so unless your hell bent on starting Antonio Andrews, this is an easy fade with a matchup against the Jets. The Jets are the only team to only allow one rushing touchdown this season while holding running backs to an average of 3.5 YPC. The Jets do struggle in the passing aspect, allowing a 70% completion rate on 85 targets and four touchdowns.
Best DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns – Almost the entire landscape of the worst teams against the running back position changed from week 13 to week 14. The 49ers have shot up the ranks and are now the worst against the run. On the season, they’ve allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, which is the second most in the league. Opposing running backs are averaging 4.2 YPC on 1342 yards, which is the fifth most allowed in the league. The 49ers are also struggling in the passing aspect, allowing an 84% completion rate on 90 targets.
2) Miami Dolphins vs. New York Giants – The Giants have a nice spot here against a leaky Dolphins defense against the run. They’ve allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season an average of 4.2 YPC. The Dolphins also struggle in the passing game, as they’re tied with three other teams with five passing touchdowns allowed to running backs, which leads the league.
3) New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – It doesn’t feel like the Saints really do anything when it comes to defense, other than allowing their opponent to score in any way they feel necessary. The Saints have allowed seven rushing touchdowns this season and an absurd 4.9 YPC. The 1456 rushing yards allowed is the second most in the league, as they only trail the Cleveland Browns in that category. The Saints are also one of those four teams that have allowed five passing touchdowns to opposing RB.
Worst DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders – While some of the top or worst teams change by the week, this is one section that never does. The Broncos remain the top team at defending against opposing wide receivers. On the season, they’ve allowed just one touchdown and a 57% completion rate on 188 targets. Those targets are the least amount attempted in the league.
2) Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers – The Falcons continue to hold it down against opposing wide receivers. They’ve allowed four touchdowns to them, which is tied with Seattle for the second least amount in the league. Teams are only completing 58% of their passes on 203 targets.
3) St. Louis Rams vs. Detroit Lions – The Rams have been giving opposing wide receivers all types of problems this season. The Rams are tied with two other teams with allowing seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, which is the third least amount in the league. Even though they’re allowing a 65% completion rate, the 1609 yards is one of the least in the league.
Best DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills – The Eagles continue to allow some nice games to opposing wide receivers and face the red hot Sammy Watkins this week. On the season, the Eagles have allowed 20 passing touchdowns, which is tied with the Saints for the most in the league. Opposing wide receivers are catching 61% of their 295 targets.
2) Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers – This would have been a fantastic spot for the Chargers maybe six weeks ago, but with mounting injuries, not so much anymore. Regardless, the Chiefs are tied with the Washington Redskins with 17 touchdowns allowed, which is the third most in the league. They’re allowing a fairly low 59% completion rate, but lead the league in passing yards allowed to wide receivers with 2378.
3) Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – This could be a nice spot for the Jaguars, as Blake Bortles has been underrated throwing to his wide receivers, in my opinion. The Colts have allowed 16 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, who are catching 56% of their targets. Like the Chiefs, even though the completion rate is a bit low, they’ve allowed the third-most amount of yards at 2289.
Worst DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers – This is going to be a very interesting spot this week. With the Chargers basically depleted at wide receiver, you’d have to think Phillip Rivers will be honing in on one of his favorite targets in Antonio Gates. On the season, the Chiefs have allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends while keeping their completion rate to 51% and 396 yards.
2) New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans – Tight ends and running backs, two positions the Jets have a lockdown on this season. They’ve allowed two touchdowns this season with a 61% completion rate on 78 targets.
3) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills– Well, at least, the Eagles can defend at least one position this season. The Eagles have allowed three touchdowns to the tight end position 67% completion rate on 80 targets.
Best DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I think the general consensus here is to play any team that is facing the Saints because they can’t defend against anyone. On the season, the Saints have allowed 10 touchdowns to the tight end position, which is the second most in the league besides the Oakland Raiders. The Saints are allowing a 75% completion rate on 99 targets, not to mention, the most yards allowed in the league at 1016.
2) Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos – Yes, we’ve heard the narrative of how bad the Raiders have been against the tight end position this season, but they’ve really tightened it up as of late. Overall, the Raiders have allowed 11 touchdowns to the tight end position this season. The Raiders have allowed a 62% completion rate on 98 targets.
3) New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins – I really thought that the Dolphins would involve Jordan Cameron much more than they are this season, I can’t even get excited about a good matchup that he has this week. The Giants have allowed seven touchdowns to the tight end position this season with a 70% completion rate on 106 targets.
Last Week’s Target Leaders
Last Three Week’s Target Leaders
Lineup Quick Hits
One Quarterback You Should Build Lineups Around…
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) – Love it, love it, love it. I love everything about this matchup for the man we love to call TyGOD. Yup, if you were expecting Winston, you’re sorely mistaken. Do I like Winston this week? Absolutely. I think he has a chance to be one of the highest scoring QB’s this week. However, I think Tyrod is also in a great spot and might go a bit overlooked. Since he was injured in week 11 against the Patriots, Taylor has been on fire. He’s completed 33/59 passes for 502 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. His matchup against the Eagles defense that has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns this season sounds like money to me. It also doesn’t hurt that Taylor can go mobile with his legs and grab you a little something extra, as he has three rushing touchdowns on the year.
And the Wide Receiver You Should Pair Him With…
Sammy Watkins ($6,100) Every time I’ve played Taylor this season, I’ve done it without pairing him with anyone. Over the past two weeks, not pairing him with Watkins has been a fatal mistake if you’ve played Taylor. Watkins, while not catching a ton of passes, is making it count when he does. Over that two week span, Watkins ahs gone for 267 yards on just nine receptions and scoring three touchdowns. He’s getting the targets, 14 in his last two, he just hasn’t been able to make them all into something. But when he has, look out. Again, when facing a defense like the Eagles, I have no reason to believe why Watkins can’t have another big week. Pairing Watkins with Taylor will only run you for $11,500, which leaves you with a fantastic amount left over to fill out the rest of your roster.
The Highest Scoring Running Back This Week Will Be…
Shaun Draughn ($4,800) – How can you not love when Draughn has been doing for the 49ers? He has a fantastic matchup ahead against the Cleveland Browns, who are notorious for not being able to defend against the run. The Browns have given up the most total yards to running backs at 1543, or on average, 4.7 YPC. When you add in the fact that Draughn has been very active in the passing game as well with 18 targets in his last three weeks, that $4,800 feels a lot less than it already is. Fire up Draughn with confidence this week.