No matter how you did in Week 11, that all gets erased as of today. We start to prepare for Week 12, and I have you covered from top to bottom. Let’s get right to all the information and get you ready to build those lineups. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
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The Vegas Lines
Highest Scoring Games
Below are the three highest scoring projected games and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
Over/Under: 47.5 points
Line: Houston -3
Oh boy. Who likes games that are chalk full of fantasy goodness. If you raised your hand, well my friend, you’ve found the holy grail for week 12. The Houston Texans and Brian Hoyer got the unbelievably flimsy Saints defense. Just how bad is this Saints defense? Well, when Marcus Mariota, Kirk Cousins, and Eli Manning have a combined 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio, you can basically figure it out. Hoyer is going to be one of the best chalk plays of the week as his price tag of $5,000 is an absolute steal. Obviously the handcuff with Hoyer would be DeAndre Hopkins (who by the way, was NOT the bust of the week like I thought. Oops.) Hopkins is going to cost you a pretty penny at $9100 this week, but his talent is undeniable. Going against the worst defense in the league, dare I say he’s a must? If Hopkins can burn Darrelle Revis, there’s no telling who can stop him.
All that aside, the Saints are certainly no slouches in this game either. Drew Brees checks into week 12 as the second most expensive quarterback on the slate. Brees and the Saints are coming off a bye week, and a less than stellar performance against the Redskins their last time out. Don’t let that scare you off, Brees and company have been the real deal in terms of offense. Bress has thrown for 20 touchdowns this season and has exceeded 300 passing yards in six of their ten matchups this season. The Texans are in the middle of the road against quarterbacks and have allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season. No matter which route you choose to go, make sure to take a good look at this game.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Line: San Diego -4
This game is tied with two other games with the second highest projected scoring game of the week. I picked this one because I think we have a couple plays that are certainly worth a look when rostering your lineups. On the Jaguars side, the obvious person to look at it T.J. Yeldon. Unless you don’t pay attention to anything we say here on the DK Playbook, it’s been stated numerous times that the Chargers defense against the run is, well, non-existent. Take for example last week against the Chiefs, where the Chargers allowed 4.9 YPC against a Chiefs run attack that lost its lead running back in Charcandrick West early on. Yeldon has been someone who has been awfully quiet since week seven against Buffalo, but he’s in a prime spot to let loose in this one. With Blake Bortles having issues with turnovers lately, it wouldn’t surprise me if they leaned heavily on Yeldon this week.
As for the Chargers, they still have a lot of question mark with their wide receiver core. As of Wednesday, Malcom Floyd was at least present at practice, so it makes one wonder if that’s any indication he will be ready to go for this game. The Jaguars certainly aren’t anything special on defense, so any help the Chargers can get would be beneficial. Rostering any offensive player from the Chargers will come cheap as Stevie Johnson is their most expensive receiver at $4,500. Look for a bounce back performance from the disappointing Chargers offense.
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Line: Indianapolis -3
If you were to tell me at the beginning of the season that the Bucs would have more attractive options in this game than the Colts, I’d tell you to go back to bed. Nonetheless, that’s where we stand for week 12. The Buccaneers defense has put together back to back solid performances, scoring a combined 30 DraftKings points in the past two weeks. In those games against Dallas and Philadelphia, the Bucs defense were responsible for six sacks and four interceptions. Why this is important, is because the Colts offensive line is looking awfully weak without Anthony Castonzo, they’ll be doing a lot of shuffling around which would put them in a state of uncertainty. Look at the Patriots as a perfect example of this. With a red hot Jameis Winston coming in with a healthy Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the Colts could be in for a long day.
Lowest Scoring Games
Below is the lowest scoring projected game and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Line: Cleveland -2.5
Honestly, I don’t even want to write about this game. What a snoozefest this one could be. With Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett and Steve Smith Sr all reportedly done for the season, what is attractive about this game? Is Josh McCown going against one of the worst defenses against the pass attractive? Sure, I can give you that. GPP is certainly a spot to use him. Cash? Forget it. Pretty risky if you ask me. Travis Benjamin is always an option in this one, but he hasn’t had a touchdown since week three. Gary Barnidge is always a consideration, but extremely boom or bust. Looking at Baltimore, every pass receiver takes a significant hit with Matt Schaub at center, even with how poorly the Browns defend quarterbacks. If anything, I think Javorius Allen makes for an intriguing play (more on that later.) Otherwise, with this game playing on Monday night, it will be quite easy to fade it mostly, if not completely.
Defense vs. Position Matchup Breakdown
Worst DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots – Even as a New England fan, this is going to be a tough matchup for the Patriots. Every week that passes by, it feels as if another wide receiver goes down for the Patriots. They matchup against a Denver D that has only allowed eight passing touchdown this season while intercepting ten. The 2119 passing yards allowed is the least amount in the league on a 60% completion rate.
2) Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Seattle has been in this spot almost all season. I can’t say that their matchup against the 49ers was going to change much. On the season, the Seahawks have allowed ten passing touchdowns this season but are tied with three other teams with the league low of four interceptions. The 2260 yards are the second least amount in the league on a 62% completion rate.
3) Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings – The Panthers own the third best defense against quarterbacks this season, but their slate on Thursday throws the Falcons into this position. They’ve allowed 13 passing touchdowns this season and own 12 interceptions, which is tied for the fourth-most in the league. They’ve allowed a decent amount of yards at 2493 on a high 68% completion rate.
Best DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans – Believe me, you’re going to see an awful lot of Saints defense in this section and it won’t be accompanied by any praise. They have given up the most passing touchdowns in the league at 28, which leads the Cleveland Browns by seven, who’ve allowed the second most. The 3081 yards is surprisingly the second most in the league (*cough Giants cough*) with a 66% completion rate.
2) Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns – Here’s the unexciting matchup I was talking about. The Ravens are well known for their terrible defense and against opposing quarterbacks, it’s not pretty. The Ravens have allowed 19 touchdowns on the season while grabbing a league-low four interceptions. They’ve allowed 2730 yards on a 63% completion rate.
3) Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens – I’d be much more excited about this matchup if the quarterbacks were the not named McCown or Schaub. The Browns have allowed the second most passing touchdowns this season with 21. The 2781 yard allowed was obtained on a 61% completion rate.
Worst DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have been making it work, even with Deangelo Williams leading the way. This week, he’s in a very tough spot against the Seahawks. The Seahawks have only allowed three rushing touchdowns this season on 766 rushing yards, one of the lowest in the league. On 212 attempts, Seattle is allowing 3.6 YPC.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Steelers sees your tough run defense, and they raise you one! Well, not really, since they’re second against the run, but you know what I mean. If anything Thomas Rawles at $4,500 provides some real value in a tough matchup. The Steelers have allowed 2 rushing touchdowns this season while allowing 3.9 YPC on 205 attempts.
3) New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins – Last time the Dolphins faced the Jets in week four, Lamar Miller only managed 26 yards on seven attempts. This Jets D hasn’t let up against the run all season. The Jets have allowed only one rushing touchdown this season with 3.6 YPC.
Best DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – If you want to run, you want to face the Chargers. They’ve been absolutely atrocious at defending the run, as evident by the ten rushing touchdowns allowed, which is tied for the second-most in the league. Not to mention, the five YPC they let up. You ready for this game, Yeldon?
2) Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets – A poor performance from Chris Ivory last week could see his owned percentage take a dive this week. This bodes well for you, the sensible reader, as he has a tasty matchup in week 12. The Dolphins eight rushing touchdowns this season along with 1231 yards, which is the second most allowed in the league. Those 1231 yards come on an average of 4.2 YPC.
3) San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are stacked in the receiving game, so Chris Johnson is very boom or bust in the running game for Arizona. Nonetheless, the 49ers struggle against the run mightly. They’ve allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season on 1118 yards and 4.4 YPC.
Worst DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots – Again, a tough spot here for New England. With Danny Amendola leading the way for their receivers, they could be in a REAL tough spot if he can’t go in week 12. The Broncos have allowed only one touchdown to opposing wide receivers with a 59% completion rate on 1173 yards, the least allowed in the league.
2) St. Louis Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are coming back down to earth, and face a great defense in the Rams. With only four touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers on 1209 yards, the Bengals will have to figure something out to get their offensive game going in this one. The Rams have allowed 60% of passes to be completed.
3) Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – This game is certainly going to be a battle of two teams that fell way below expectations heading into the season. Nonetheless, the Seattle defense has certainly done their job. Opposing wide receivers have only scored three times this season with a 60% completion rate for 1078 yards, the second least in the league.
Best DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills – The Chiefs have been brutal against opposing wide receivers this season. No way around it. On the year, they’ve allowed 14 touchdowns to them on 1995 yards, which leads the league. Certainly doesn’t help that 60% of the targets to wide receivers become catches.
2) Baltimore Raven vs. Cleveland Browns – This spot would belong to the Eagles, but since they’re playing on Thursday, the Ravens can now on the second spot. The Ravens have allowed 16 touchdowns on the season, which leads the league. The 1855 yards allowed is the 9th most in the league on a 59% completion rate.
3) Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens – Just goes to show how poorly these teams are matched up, as Vegas is projecting this game to be the lowest scoring game of the week. On paper, they certainly look like they’d be in a good spot. The Browns have allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers with a 57% completion rate on 216 targets.
Worst DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills – As always, take these stats with a grain of salt. The majority of tight ends in the league are less than stellar. The Chiefs have done the best job at defending against this position, as they’ve allowed only two touchdowns with a completion rate of 44% on 67 targets.
2) New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos – The Patriots defense might be a bit underrated this season, but they certainly have done their job against opposing tight ends. On the season, the Patriots have held them to three touchdowns and a 56% completion rate on 74 targets. Could be a tough spot for Owen Daniels, who saw five targets last week with Brock Osweiler at the helm.
3) Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers don’t really have anything at the tight end position anymore after trading Vernon Davis to the Broncos. Nonetheless, the Cardinals have held opposing tight ends to three touchdowns and a 58% completion rate on 72 targets.
Best DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans – Believe it or not, the Raiders are no longer the worst team against the tight end position. That now rightfully belongs to the Saints. On the season, they’ve allowed nine touchdowns and an absurd 75% completion rate on 77 targets. Ryan Griffin for the Texans could be a sneaky play this week at just $2500.
2) New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins – Jordan Reed is going to love this matchup. The Giants have given up seven touchdowns to this position while allowing a 69% completion rate on 93 targets. Reed is averaging 8.2 targets per game this season.
3) Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans – It wouldn’t be a section about tight ends if the Raiders weren’t featured. They’ve allowed ten touchdowns to this position, although it’s been MUCH better as of late. Tight ends are catching 60% of the passes on 83 targets. Delanie Walker could garner a look with this matchup.
Last Week’s Target Leaders
Last Three Week’s Target Leaders
Lineup Quick Hits
One Quarterback You Should Build Lineups Around…
Brian Hoyer ($5,000) – Honestly, I think this is a no brainer. Hoyer is in a dream matchup here in week 12 at the minimum price for a quarterback at $5,000. Hoyer has quietly been solid this entire season. Averaging 17.4 points per start, Hoyer has thrown at least one touchdown in every start this season, with the exception of week ten, which was cut short due to injury. In his other starts, Hoyer has thrown for at least two touchdowns in five of his six starts while getting picked off four times. When you have a receiver like DeAndre Hopkins to throw to, I just can’t see how you can go wrong. After telling everyone to fade Hopkins last week (awful decision) this is a spot you want to exploit this flimsy Saints defense. A defense that is allowing an average of 293.1 yards per game.
And the Wide Receiver You Should Pair Him With…
DeAndre Hopkins ($9,100) – The price for Hopkins continues to skyrocket. But, it has a good reason why. Hopkins leads the league with 132 targets, which is five more than Julio Jones who’s in second. Hopkins burned Darrelle Revis last week, which is just a nod to how much talent this man possesses. If he can burn Revis, who know what he can do to this Saints defense. Even with this high price tag, the pairing of Hopkins/Hoyer is only going to run you for $14,100, which leaves you PLENTY of cap space to efficiently fill in your lineup.
The Highest Scoring Running Back This Week Will Be…
Javorius Allen ($4,600) – Honestly, I’m trying to think outside the box here a bit, which is why I have Allen in this section. Do I think he will be the highest scoring running back of the week? Hard to say honestly. Week in and week out, it’s a tough call to make. I’m extremely intrigued with Allen this week, though. First off, he faces a Browns defense that is just atrocious against the run. We highlighted that earlier. What also becomes a factor is how depleted the Ravens receiving game is. With that being said, it’s not out of the realm to think that Allen couldn’t see 6-8 targets on the night, which further brings up his value at just $4,600. Getting five or more targets at that price would be a bargain, but add in the fact that he is going to get the bulk of the carries and you have to love his spot here. I’m not thrilled that Schaub is throwing to him, but I guess I can’t be picky with his price tag.
The Biggest Bust of the Week Will Be…
Demaryius Thomas ($7,400) – This section has haunted me the past couple of weeks. But hey, it’s part of the job. I can’t hit them all. So I’ll take my lumps as they come and we’ll be back here the following week. For this week, I think I’ll be steering clear of Demaryius Thomas. He’s expected to be shadowed by Malcom Butler this week, who has done a fantastic job at the corner position. With a “new” quarterback at the helm this week in Brock Osweiler and the Patriots with the mindset to always shut down the team-best offensive weapon, it wouldn’t surprise me if Thomas was held to 10-14 points this week, barring he doesn’t make it into the end zone. Last week, Thomas saw eight targets, converting those into only three receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown. With Butler following his every move, I think a very similar line could be posted for Thomas. 14 points for $7,400 is certainly not money wisely spent. Emmanuel Sanders (if healthy) would be a nice pivot off Thomas this week.