No matter how you did in Week 10, that all gets erased as of today. We start to prepare for Week 11, and I have you covered from top to bottom. Let’s get right to all the information and get you ready to build those lineups. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
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The Vegas Lines
Highest Scoring Games
Below are the three highest scoring projected games and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Over/Under: 48.5 points
Line: New England -7
This is the lowest “high” total I think I’ve seen this season. I can’t remember a week where the highest projected scoring game was over 50 points. Week 11 brings us 48.5 for the highest. No surprise with the teams, as the Patriots have been featured in this section for weeks. It’s going to be an interesting one for the Patriots, as they’ve lost Julian Edelman for 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. So now Tom Brady is going to have to lean on the likes of Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, and maybe even Aaron Dobson for his receivers. How much will this dynamic change the offense? It’s tough to say. This Buffalo team is one that Brady picked apart in week two, completing 38/59 passes for 466 yards with three touchdowns.
As for the Bills, they’ll be looking to rekindle some of that magic that Tyrod Taylor provided in that same game. Taylor completed 23/30 passes for 242 yards with three touchdowns but was also picked off three times. Taylor also rushed for 43 yards on five attempts, the second most yards he’s rushed in a game this season. With a Patriots team loaded with injuries, don’t sleep on this Bills team. I don’t know if they have enough to beat the Pats, but they certainly have a better chance than they did in week two. As always, take a look at this game for some fantasy goodness.
2) Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under: 48 points
Line: Arizona Cardinals -3
Just barely missing out on the highest projected game of the week, the Bengals take on Carson Palmer and the Cardinals. Since the Bengals bye week, Dalton looks as if he’s starting to come back down to earth. In his three games since then, Dalton hasn’t exceeded 300 passing yards after achieving that in three of his first six games. Dalton has now been intercepted three times in those three games after only getting picked off twice in his first six. Combine all that with a good Cardinals defense, and we might start to see the Bengals regressing a bit here. At $6,600 on the week, Dalton doesn’t look at attractive as he has in prior weeks. Nonetheless, this is looking at one of the highest point totals of the week.
From one end of the spectrum to the other, Carson Palmer has been playing like a man possessed lately. At just $100 more than Dalton, Palmer is coming off a 29/48 performance where he threw for three touchdowns and 363 yards off a tough Seattle defense. Palmer now thrown for least two touchdowns in seven of his nine starts this season. Injuries have certainly been an issue for the Cardinals this season, but I expect Palmer to be in a great spot here in week 11.
3) Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 48 Points
Line: Oakland Raiders -2
How the times have changed.
The Oakland Raiders are FAVORED to beat the Detroit Lions in week 11. How should I feel about this? Is this Lions team THAT bad, (yes) or is Oakland that good now (they’re close.) Let’s make no mistake about it, Derek Carr has been fantastic this season. He’s been flying under the radar all season, where he’s averaging 21.3 points per start. To put that into perspective, that is just 1.6 points less than Aaron Rodgers, who checks in at $7,500 this week. Carr is in a much better spot than Rodgers is this week and provides a $1,200 discount. Carr has thrown for over 300+ yards the past three weeks in a row with a 10:3 TD: INT ratio. The Lions are one of the worst defenses against quarterbacks, allowing 16 passing touchdowns on the season with an absurd 70% completion rate.
As for the Lions, it’s tough to find something I’m excited about here. Matt Stafford continues to play average at best, as he hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards more than once this season. His TD: INT ratio is one of the worst at 15:12 and he’s only avoided to throw a pick in two out of his nine starts. The Raiders defense isn’t anything special, but you have to consider at least it with their $2,600 price tag and the pick happy Stafford. The only thing I might consider I this game for Detroit is their tight end position. The Raiders are one of the worst in the league, and Eric Ebron is only going to run you for $3,500 this week. Even that won’t be overly enticing.
Lowest Scoring Games
Below is the lowest scoring projected game and individual teams based on Vegas Lines.
1) New York Jets at Houston Texans
Line: New York Jets -2.5
Well, this game doesn’t look very attractive. This one could be a battle of the defenses as both are playing extremely well lately. For all the trouble the Texans defense were having this season, they’ve turned things around lately. In the past two games against the Titans and Bengals, the Texans have held them to a combined 12 points with ten sacks and two interceptions. Throw in the fact that both are starting quarterbacks status are in question for this Thursday night game, and I can’t see myself going crazy on this one.
Defense vs. Position Matchup Breakdown
Worst DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears – For the second week in a row, the Denver defense has looked vulnerable. Believe me, when I say vulnerable, I mean that in the loosest sense, as they were unstoppable when the season began. Last week, the Broncos allowed Alex Smith to complete 17/31 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown. On the season, the Broncos remain the best D against the quarterback position, as they still allow the least amount of yards at 1854 on a 61% completion rate. The touchdown from Smith was the eight on the season, tied with the St. Louis Rams as the least amount in the league.
2) St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens – Another defense that looked anything but solid last week. Facing Jay Cutler, the Rams allowed 19/24 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns. Even with those numbers, the Rams remain tied with the Broncos for the least amount of passing touchdowns allowed. They’ve allowed 2153 yards on a 69% completion rate.
3) Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts have a tough matchup against a solid Falcons defense against the quarterback position this week. The Falcons have allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, which is tied with three other teams in the league. On a 64% completion rate, the Falcons have allowed 2322 yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Best DvP Matchups – Quarterbacks
1) Baltimore Ravens vs. St. Louis Rams – If you’ve watched even a split second of football this season, you’d have already gathered how atrocious the Saints defense is against opposing quarterbacks. Unfortunately for all fantasy players, they’re on a bye this week, so the Ravens slide into the number one spot. The Ravens have allowed 18 passing touchdowns, which is the fourth-most in the league. They’ve allowed 2494 yards, which is the seventh most, on a 64% completion rate. Interesting spot for Case Keenum.
2) Detroit Lions vs. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders are favored to win this matchup and why not? They face a Lions defense that seems to do anything but defend against opposing quarterbacks. On the season, the Lions have allowed 16 passing touchdowns on the season. Throw that in with 2490 yards on a 70% completion rate and you have to like their chances this week.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans – The Cleveland Browns would be in this spot for week 11, but a bye week pushes the Jaguars right into the number three spot. They have the Thursday night matchup against the Titans this week. The Jaguars have allowed 17 passing touchdowns, which is tied fifth most in the league with five other teams. They’ve allowed 2562 yards on a 66% completion rate.
Worst DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – Believe it or not, the Jets have been dethroned from the best team against the run. Not only did the slip behind the Seahawks, but they also did it with the Steelers as well, who are on a bye this week. Seattle has only allowed three rushing touchdowns this season, tied with four other teams. They 729 yards allowed is one of the least amounts, which have come on 200 attempts.
2) New York Jets vs. Houston Texans – Regardless of their defense slipping just a bit against the run, the Jets are still one of two teams to have only allowed one rushing touchdown on the season. They’ve allowed the least amount of yards with 620 on just 167 attempts.
3) New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills – The Patriots have quietly sneaked up as one of the top teams defending against the run. The Patriots are one of the five teams tied with three rushing touchdowns on the season. They’ve given up 645 yards, the third least amount in the league, on 173 attempts.
Best DvP Matchups – Running Backs
1) San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Such a big spot for the Chiefs this week. Charcandrick West has been a great replacement for Jamaal Charles since his injury and has a cake matchup this week. It’s been well documented how awful this Chargers team is against the run. On the season, the Chargers have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on 1041 yards. Running backs are also having huge success in the passing game, with an 85% completion rate for 520 yards and three touchdowns.
2) Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys – If this game doesn’t have “bounce back city” for Darren McFadden written all over it, I don’t know what would. The Dolphins are having a ton of struggles against the run, as they’ve allowed eight rushing touchdowns this season on 1067 yards, the fourth most in the league. McFadden does occasionally see some targets, so it’s worth noting the Dolphins allow a 66% completion rate with four touchdowns, tied with two other teams for the most in the league.
3) Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins – On the flip side, the Dolphins can do some damage against the Cowboys on the ground as well. The Cowboys have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on 901 yards. They’ve allowed a ton of yards on the receiving end with running backs, as the 560 yards is the third most in the league.
Worst DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears – Denver moves back into the top spot against wide receivers. On the season, Denver has only allowed one touchdown on 998 yards. Denver is the only team that has not exceeded 1000+ yards in the league, although that will certainly end this week. Denver is allowing a 58% completion rate.
2) St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens – As if the Ravens wide receivers wasn’t thin enough already, they get an extremely tough matchup against the Rams defense this week. The Rams are tied with the Falcons and Seahawks for allowing only three touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, the second least amount besides the Broncos. The 1089 yards are the third least in the league on a 66% completion rate.
3) Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – This game is certainly going to be a battle of two teams that fell way below expectations heading into the season. Nonetheless, the Seattle defense has certainly done their job. Opposing wide receivers have only scored three times this season with a 60% completion rate for 1078 yards, the second least in the league.
Best DvP Matchups – Wide Receivers
1) Baltimore Ravens vs. St. Louis Rams – Great spot for the Rams with not much of a surrounding cast to support it. The Ravens have allowed the most touchdowns against opposing wide receivers with 16 on the season. They’ve allowed 1813 yards on a 61% completion rate. Rostering someone like Tavon Austin would come with plenty of risks, but certainly a great spot for him.
2) Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers – Again, this would be another huge spot for a team like the Chargers, but injuries have plagued their season and now doesn’t feel as attractive as it would have. The Chiefs have allowed 14 touchdowns to wide receivers on 1853 yards, which is the fourth-most in the league. Impressively, the Chiefs allow a 59% completion rate, which feels low for a team with so many yards allowed.
3) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Well, at least we can look forward to a great matchup for someone like Mike Evans. With the Rams and Chargers not exactly throwing out any studs in great matchups, Evans is a breath of fresh air. The Eagles have allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing wide-outs to go along with 1743 yards and a 61% completion rate.
Worst DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Here’s your weekly reminder to take these DvP against TE stats with a grain of salt. The amount of “elite” tight ends in the game are few and far between. Nonetheless, the numbers are the numbers. The Eagles check in as the best against the TE position. They’ve allowed only one touchdown on the season on 372 yards with a 68% completion rate.
2) Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers – The Chiefs have been solid against tight ends this entire season. They’ve held them to only two touchdowns this season and a minuscule 279 yards. Tough spot for Antonio Gates.
3) Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals – The Cardinals have done their job of defending against opposing tight ends. On the season, they’ve allowed only one touchdown on 335 yards and a 57% completion rate.
Best DvP Matchups – Tight Ends
1) Oakland Raiders vs. Detroit Lions – The Raiders are only here by default this week. Believe it or not, the Saints have overtaken the Raiders as the worst team against tight ends. Don’t get me wrong, the Raiders are still atrocious. They’ve allowed nine touchdowns on 523 yards and a 61% completion rate.
2) Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – Three of the five teams that are the worst against the tight end position are on a bye this week, so we’re jumping down the list to the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have been getting burned by this position, as they’ve allowed six touchdowns to this position on 591 yards and a 70% completion rate.
3) Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts love going to their tight ends, which could be a way to get around a decent Falcons defense. The Falcons have allowed seven touchdowns to that position on 561 yards and a 64% completion rate.
Last Week’s Target Leaders
Last Three Week’s Target Leaders
Lineup Quick Hits
One Quarterback You Should Build Lineups Around…
Derek Carr ($6,300) – I’m going for it. I’m pulling the trigger. I’m putting Derek Carr down as the quarterback you should be looking at for week 11. Since the bye week for Oakland, Carr has scored 23.9, 32.1, 30.3 and 22.3 fantasy points against the Chargers, Jets, Steelers, and Vikings. Now, he has a tasty matchup against the Lions ahead of him. How can you not love it? He’s the 9th most expensive quarterback on the week and pairing him with either Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree will run you no higher than $13,100. That is a combo I can certainly live with as it leaves you with an average of $5,271 per player at the most. Carr has made his 2015 season count, and I think this could be the week where he can put that exclamation point on it.
And the Wide Receiver You Should Pair Him With…
Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree ($6,800/$6,000) – I don’t think you can go wrong either way here. When it comes to targets, these guys are knotted even. Cooper is averaging 9 per game while Crabtree has the slightest bump at 9.4. Both players are averaging 17 points per game, and both are on the same level with touchdowns, with Crabtree grabbing one more than Cooper with five and four respectively. The Lions have been shredded by opposing wide receivers this season and this game should be no different. I understand rostering a couple of Raiders isn’t exactly the sexiest lineup, but they’ve been getting it done. It’s time to take this team seriously.
The Highest Scoring Running Back This Week Will Be…
Charcandrick West ($4,500) – We have a lot to love about West this week. He has a tasty matchup against the below average run defense of the San Diego Chargers. West has a VERY friendly price of $4500, which will certainly help your budget out. In the three weeks West has had 20+ carries, he’s averaging 4.1 YPC. It won’t take much for West to reach value, which shouldn’t be an issue against this weak Chargers defense. With nine targets in his last three games, West is showing he can also have some impact in the receiving game as the Chargers are one of the worst at defending that as well. I don’t know if West is going to be the highest scoring running back of the week, but he should be close.
The Biggest Bust of the Week Will Be…
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800) – I was B-U-R-N-E-D last week by showcasing Antonio Brown in this section. Throw me a bone on that one, as Big Ben ended up coming into that game, so the whole dynamic changed on that one. This week, though, I’m looking at Hopkins to be a bust on the week. He should be lining up with Darrelle Revis this week, who certainly has been beaten by elite wide receivers this season. On the flipside, so has Hopkins. I point to the week two matchup against Carolina, who held him to just 10.3 points on the week where he caught 5/11 targets and was held out of the end zone. Last week, he once again caught 5/11 targets and scored once. Brian Hoyer status is very much in jeopardy this week on short rest so it looks as if backup T.J. Yates will taking the duties for this week. I don’t know how much I trust Yates to provide the value that Hopkins will need to return on the $8,800 investment. It’s a tough call, but one that I’m not going to pay $8,800 to find out.