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The final NFL Cheat Sheet of the 2016 season is upon us. With only four teams remaining, we have a two-game Sunday slate to get ready for. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Projected Point Total – 61 points

This game features, if I can recall correctly, the highest projected total of the season. When these two teams met up back in Week 8, that game had a projected total of 52.5 points, with the Falcons squeaking out a 33-32 victory. Both of these quarterbacks are coming off stellar performances in the Divisional round and should be primed for more of the same this week. Julio Jones is reportedly “ready to rock” for this Championship game, while Jordy Nelson hasn’t been cleared as of yet. His practice participation will certainly be worth watching in the coming days. Without Nelson last week, Aaron Rodgers targeted Jared Cook 11 times, followed by Davante Adams at 10 and Randall Cobb with 8.

Lowest Scoring Game

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

Projected Point Total – 51 points

The “lowest” total belongs to the Steelers visiting the Patriots in a rematch of their Week 7 game. Even without Ben Roethlisberger that week, the Patriots had trouble containing Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Brown caught 7/11 passes for 106 yards but was held without a touchdown. Bell was also held out of the end zone, but scored 24.9 DK fantasy points thanks to 81 rushing yards and catching 10/13 targets for 68 yards.

As always, Julian Edelman has been a target monster for the Patriots, grabbing 13 last week for 137 yards. The other noteworthy item from that game against the Texans was the heavy usage of Dion Lewis, who scored three touchdowns that game. He ended up with five more carries than fellow running back LaGarrette Blount, but reports have surfaced the the workload could balance back out during this matchup.


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DvP Matchups

Quarterback

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Worst QB Matchup

1. New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Tom Brady is once again tagged with the toughest matchup this week as he takes on the Steelers. During the regular season, Pittsburgh allowed 20 passing touchdowns and an average of 256 passing yards per game, while nabbing 13 interceptions. In the playoffs, Matt Moore and Alex Smith combined to complete 49/70 passes for 461 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers.

Best QB Matchups

1. Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons – Aaron Rodgers draws the most favorable matchup against the Falcons. During the regular season, the Falcons allowed 31 passing touchdowns and an average of 280 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Rodgers threw for 246 yards and four touchdowns against this Falcons defense in Week 8.


Running Back

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Worst RB Matchups

1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots – As mentioned above, Le’Veon Bell accounted for 24.9 DraftKings fantasy points in Week 7 against this Patriots defense, rushing for 81 yards while catching 10/13 targets for 68 yards. New England ended the season as the best at defending against the run, allowing only four rushing touchdowns and an average of 3.6 YPC to opposing RBs.

Best RB Matchups

1. New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Dion Lewis lead the Patriots in snaps and scoring last week, playing on 48% of the snaps and scoring 25.4 DK fantasy points. He’ll have a very friendly matchup against the Steelers defense that allowed 14 rushing touchdowns and an average of 4.3 YPC during the regular season to opposing RBs.


Wide Receiver

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Worst WR Matchups

1. New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Back in Week 8, Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan caught 11/12 targets for 85 yards against the Steelers. This week, they’re saddled with the worst matchup on the slate, as the Steelers only gave up 10 touchdowns to wide receivers all year. 

Best WR Matchups

1. Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers – Matt Ryan has been spreading the wealth as of late, evidenced by 10 different players catching a pass from him against the Seattle Seahawks last week. Facing Green Bay this week, they get a defense that allowed a league-leading 26 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers and an average of 189 receiving yards per game.


Tight End

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Worst TE Matchups

1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots – Jesse James had a bump in targets last week with Ladarius Green missing. With six targets last week, he’ll draw a tough matchup against the Patriots, a team that allowed three touchdowns and an average of 44 receiving yards per game this season to opposing TEs.

Best TE Matchups

1. Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons – Both Packers tight ends caught a touchdown last week against Dallas, but it was Jared Cook who lead the way. Scoring 25.4 DK points by catching 6/11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown, he has the best matchup for tight ends on this slate. The Falcons allowed eight touchdowns and an average of 60 yards per game to opposing tight ends.


%{color:#FF6C00}*Target Report*%  

Target Leaders

  • Targets are from Weeks 15-17 and any playoff games. Avg Targets are divided by games played over the past five weeks

NameTeamLast 5 WeeksAvg. Targets
Julian EdelmanNE4611.5
Davante AdamsGB448.8
Jared CookGB418.2
Antonio BrownPIT367.2
Julio JonesATL338.2
Jordy NelsonGB306
Eli RogersPIT255
Ty MontgomeryGB244.8
Geronimo AllisonGB214.2
Devonta FreemanATL204


Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around… 

Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) – He’s the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but no one has turned it on quite like Rodgers has as of late. Dating back to Week 16, Rodgers has now thrown over 300 yards in four straight games, averaging 343 yards in that span with a 14:1 TD:INT ratio. With the Packers running game essentially down to just Ty Montgomery, Rodgers has been throwing early and often, averaging 40 attempts over his last four games.

WR To Pair Him With… 

Davante Adams ($6,100) – Assuming Jordy Nelson isn’t in this game, Adams has been leaned on by Rodgers since Nelson went down. Even with the emergence of Jared Cook last week, Adams has been targeted 22 times in the Packers’ two playoff games, catching 13 of those for 201 yards and a touchdown. Against this Falcons defense that is so poor against opposing wide receivers, Adams should have have plenty of opportunities to feast.  

The Top RB Will Be…

Le’Veon Bell ($10,300) – Bell is always one of the top plays of any week, but he’s also essentially the only running back who isn’t sharing with anyone else this week. Ty Montgomery would be the other, but the amount of time Rodgers throws limits his ceiling a bit in that aspect. Bell will be going up against one of the top defenses against the run this week, but his usage in the passing game always makes him one of the best options regardless of the  matchup.

 



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