WATCH: LINEUP REVIEW WITH ADAM LEVITAN
I am mainly a cash-game player. Cash games refer to any DraftKings contest in which roughly 50 percent of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. For more on what I look for in cash games, check out this primer or the positional looks for quarterback, running back and wide receiver.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it and give you my thought process.
As I discussed in the intro to Leverage, this was a very difficult week. Having unique weather thrown into a bunch of games only made it harder. So for the first time I ever, I hedged in main slate cash game with a simple 2 vs. 2 (Kirk Cousins/Donte Moncrief vs. Andrew Luck/Tyreek Hill). I explained a bit more on why below. Regardless, the lineup above ended up scoring 14.32 fewer points than the hedge lineup.
MY MUST PLAYS
- I talked about the spot for Le’Veon Bell in Leverage. Although Ben Roethlisberger and the pass game has consistently laid massive eggs on the road, Bell’s production has been unaffected away from Heinz. He’s also the unique three-down plus goal-line back playing literally 100 percent of the snaps. So given the matchup against Cleveland’s expansion-caliber defense, Bell was a no-brainer even at $8,800. Just because someone is expensive doesn’t mean he’s overpriced.
- C.J. Prosise profiles as the exact kind of back we want to roster on DraftKings. He’s a former wide receiver who also has the size to run between the tackles and at the goal-line. The matchup wasn’t quite ideal, but he was still a home favored running back. I think some people got thrown off Prosise because of all the Thomas Rawls talk, but that didn’t phase me too much. Pete Carroll always overhypes his players, Rawls hadn’t played since Week 2, he was coming off a broken leg plus ankle surgery and Prosise was the MVP of the Wk 10 win at New England. So even though I conservatively projected Prosise for 9-12 carries plus 4-5 targets, I thought he was a must given his price of $4,200. The first-half injury obviously really hurt, as fewer people rostered Prosise than I expected.
- Once Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan were ruled out, we were able to project a narrowing of Tom Brady’s target concentration. So in a week where I didn’t like virtually any WRs, it was a layup to take the safe floor of Julian Edelman at $6,100. His volume projection was further enhanced by the fast-breaking Chip Kelly offense which allows the most plays per game to opponents. The same line of thinking applied to Martellus Bennett, making him a fine cash-game play. I did manage to fade Bennett in GPPs as Week 1 memories of him blocking the entire game with Gronk out lingered.
MY WANT PLAYS
- The only positions I considered for my flex were RB and TE. I simply didn’t like enough WRs to use a spot there. I ended up throwing out Zach Miller as a consideration because I didn’t need the savings once the weather took Odell Beckham/Antonio Brown out of play. So that left me with LeSean McCoy, Spencer Ware or David Johnson. I never considered LeGarrette Blount because of how TD-dependent he is at $6,500. I ended up going with McCoy because of his three-down plus goal-line role in a quality matchup – his snap rate and touches (21.3 in full games this year) were far better than Ware’s. And I couldn’t fit DJ without going down to one of the Bears WRs, something I didn’t want to do.
- The weather situations involving the Redskins, Giants and Steelers pushed me from Kirk Cousins (my favorite point-per-dollar play) to Andrew Luck (my favorite raw points play). Since the weather took Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham out of play, I didn’t really need the savings Cousins provided. So getting off him and the shaky weather to go to Luck in the dome made sense. I ran the Luck lineup (above) a little more than the Cousins lineup.
- I didn’t love playing Tyreek Hill as a 180-pounder who only logs half the snaps, but the matchup against Tampa’s weak secondary was right as long as Jeremy Maclin was out. I was OK coming off Donte Moncrief in this lineup since I had Luck and because Moncrief is a far better play in TD-heavy formats. DraftKings full-PPR plus bonuses for 100 yards lessens the impact of TDs, which is Moncrief’s speciality.
- I was simply looking for reliable volume at wide receiver. I thought I could get it in Golden Tate, who had seen at least nine targets in four straight games. Yes, I knew Eric Ebron/Theo Riddick were healthy and the Jags have a strong pass defense. But this was an indoor game with the pass-happy Lions coming out of a bye. I did think about getting up to Doug Baldwin for $400 more, but that would have resulted in me going to Cowboys or Colts as my D/ST. I wasn’t comfortable with that.
- The Dolphins have an elite pass rush (4th per PFF, T-10th in sacks) and were facing a leaky Rams offensive line in Jared Goff’s first start. I would’ve liked to get to the Giants, Chiefs, Lions or Seahawks. But I just couldn’t find the money to get up that high, so I settled for the road defense.
Week 1: 100.38 points, won 7.3 percent of head-to-heads. No recap available.
Week 2: 160.0 points, won 87.0 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 3: 182.26 points, won 94.5 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 4: 131.12 points, won 42.5 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 5: 149.70 points, won 60.9 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 6: 169.48 points, won 75.5 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 7: 183.12 points, won 76.7 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 8: 109.3 points, won 21.7 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 9: 135.04 points, won 47.8 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 10: 147.90 points, won 54.1 percent of head-to-heads. Click here for recap.
Week 11: 131.88 points, won 45.6 percent of head-to-heads
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is AdamLevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.