QUARTERBACK

Cam Newton, Carolina (vs TB) – $7500

For whatever reason—probably cost—it seems like Newton’s ownership has been way too low for about a month. He’s the most expensive quarterback again, and I think he’s likely to check in around just 7% or so this week. The Panthers are motivated to win to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Carson Palmer, Arizona (vs SEA) – $6500

I really like Palmer in tournaments because the matchup is probably better than what people think. The Cards are currently projected at 26.8 implied points, which is one of the highest totals in Week 17. The only concern here might be that if the Cardinals see the Panthers are up big on Tampa Bay (also a 4pm ET game), they might just pull the starters.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Eli Manning, NY Giants (vs PHI) – $5600

Manning is a pretty obvious value, but I do think a lot of people are going to side with Matt Ryan at $5,500 because of the cupcake matchup against the Saints. I believe Manning has more upside against the Eagles. Both situations are games that could easily turn into shootouts. I love the idea of stacking both games.

Jon Bales Offers His Player Rankings for Week 17 HERE

RUNNING BACK

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta (vs NO) – $7600

With a lot of people on the Falcons’ passing game lately, I’ve been using Freeman a lot as a leverage play. Even though he’s the most expensive back, I still think he’s a value in this game. He’s still seeing a massive workload, and I think a breakout performance is on the horizon.

Todd Gurley, St. Louis (vs SF) – $7400

Todd Gurley is OUT on Sunday. Tre Mason replaces him as a solid value option

Gurley isn’t a great value, but he is likely to see low ownership. He’s been horribly inefficient of late, but he’s still going to see the touches here in a good matchup. No one is talking about the rookie anymore, and while I wouldn’t go all-in because of the price, I do like the idea of having some Millionaire Maker exposure to Gurley. Note that this is of course dependent on Gurley being healthy, which is questionable right now.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Darren McFadden, Dallas (vs WAS) – $4900

The Redskins are the only playoff team that has nothing to play for in Week 17. That’s reflected in the line, with Dallas currently a four-point favorite. Because McFadden is likely to be facing some second-team defenders and Dallas will probably run the ball often, I like him quite a bit in Week 17.

The Week 17 NFL Cheat Sheet will have you feeling good about this weekend’s contests – READ NOW

WIDE RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston (vs JAC) – $8400

I had Hopkins listed here last week and he’s in a similar spot with lots of DFS players likely on Julio Jones at $100 more. The thing about the Saints is that they’ve actually been decent against No. 1 receivers the past few weeks, though. They did a pretty good job against Allen Robinson if you take away the late 90-yard score on which they inexplicably placed Brandon Browner on him. I think Hopkins is in nearly just as good of a spot at Julio, but will be lower-owned.

Eric Decker, NY Jets (at BUF) – $6500

All he does is score touchdowns and look fine doing it.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia (at NYG) – $4700

I absolutely love this game and I’ll be stacking it heavily. I think a lineup with Manning, OBJ, Randle, Matthews, and Ertz isn’t out of the question. Along with the Saints-Falcons, this is the most obvious high-upside game to target with two poor defenses. Matthews is seeing a ton of targets and clearly underpriced at $4,700.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen, Carolina (vs TB) – $6800

This is the obvious pairing with Newton. Olsen is probably overpriced, but he also has a good chance to score with the Panthers projected over 28 points. I think there are a lot of quality tight end options this week, though.

Delanie Walker, Tennessee (at IND) – $5600

Walker has at least 12 targets in three of the past four games. Everyone is talking about Travis Kelce and Ertz this week, so I think this is an opportunity to get a really athletic player at a decent price in a quality matchup; the Colts have yielded 3.7 points per game above expected to opposing tight ends.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia (at NYG) – $3600

Ertz has 30 targets over the past two games. He’s going to be high-owned, but I don’t think this is a situation to fade because of the cost and flexibility it provides. I wouldn’t be against going all-in on Ertz.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Carolina (vs TB) – $3600

I think a lot of people will be on the Steelers this weekend. They’re the same price as Carolina and facing the Browns, so there’s obvious value. The spreads are identical in these games, though, at 10.5 points, and the Panthers simply have a better defense.

Houston (vs JAC) – $3300

The Jags have shown they can be explosive at times, so I do think many DFS players will try to avoid them. The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL, though, and there’s a good chance they’re going to be able to force Blake Bortles into some low-percentage throws.

VALUE OF THE WEEK

Dallas (vs WAS) – $2100

The problem here is a lack of upside for Dallas—they don’t really force many turnovers—but the price and potentially low ownership are enticing given that Washington has nothing to play for and will likely rest their starters.

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Sports for Smart People book series, most recently Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports.

Follow him @BalesFootball