Welcome back to the daily DraftKings picks where we try to get super rich playing daily fantasy football. As usual I’ll do a brief recap of my lineups from the week before then throw out some picks that I’m brainstorming for this weekend, and hopefully get some good feedback/tips/picks from you guys either in the comment section or on Twitter @kmarkobarstool.
It’s Thanksgiving break and I’m required to give some face time to the family, so got to make this one shorter as usual – just dipped into the bathroom to hammer it out, if my mom asks, “my stomach’s a little upset” right now.
Let’s do it – first last week’s breakdown.
Can’t remember a time I had this many duds in one lineup. Can’t believe I even cashed.
QB – Cam – love the guy.
RB – Wow, what a dumpster fire. My blog pick Charcandrick West left the game in the first half due to injury, but that 57% ownership took the sting off a little bit – a lot easier to have a dud player when more than half the field also has them. Blount was a little tougher – I knew the Bills D was solid, which made him a good contrarian pick, but I thought the Pats would move the ball way easier and set Blount up for a classic 2 3 TD game.
WR – Did a good job rolling with the Amendola chalk play, and Julio Jones finally exceeded value for his crazy high price. Jordan Matthews the gut call? Not so much. That Sanchez connection didn’t transfer to this year I guess. And Stevie Johnson remains the low ceiling medium floor safe play we knew he was.
TE – Always pair Olsen up with Cam. Easy.
So yeah not so great. But whatever. Blog pick recap – Solid from Demaryius and Rodgers, dud from Charcandrick West, and super dud from Gronk.
Let’s get into this week.
Tom Brady $8K
There are a bunch of cheap guys I like this week – Brian Hoyer and Marcus Mariota are two that I’ll definitely be throwing in some lineups. But for my top tournament pick I’m going way up the price ladder, to the most expensive guy. Yup, sometimes being more expensive than everyone is a great sign for your GPPs. I get the feeling nobody is going to be on Brady, who has 4 wide receivers die on the field every game and seems to be operating with his practice squad’s practice squad out there. Oh, and the matchup is horrible – the Broncos defense is legit as hell. So yeah combine all those factors and on paper this looks like a terrible pick – probably not safe for your cash games, considering the price. But we’ve all seen what Brady can do with no weapons, and the campaign he’s on to crush every opponent this year makes me feel like he’ll have one of those 300 yards and 2-3 TD games in this one, so I’ll take a shot in tourneys where he will be less than 5% owned.
Consider – Carson Palmer and Eli Manning will be very popular but are strong plays. Like I said above I like Hoyer and Mariota a lot – Drew Brees has a tougher matchup this week but his recent results can’t be ignored, and he shouldn’t be TOO highly owned…for a risky tournament play that could pay off, consider Russ Wilson or Big Ben.
T.J. Yeldon $4.8K
First, the obvious plays:
Buck Allen, the next man up in the Ravens offense after Justin Forsett left the field for the season with an arm broken in half. Combine the starting opportunity with the fact the Browns have a bottom 2 run defense in the entire NFL, and you’ve got a pretty sweet play on paper. I don’t know if I’m sold though. For one thing, everyone and their mother knows what I just mentioned, and he should be this week’s Charcandrick West, with 50%+ ownership. For another thing, don’t forget Flacco is also done for the season – you really think the Browns are worried about Schaub beating them? They’ll most likely stack the box, and their run D may stink, but Buck Allen isn’t exactly super talented. Allen is probably a safe bet for 80 yards and a TD, but is that going to win you
Thomas Rawls – he’ll be the highest owned RB this weekend, and the Steelers have a top 5 rush defense. I love the guy and he’s wayyy more talented than Buck Allen – not saying he won’t have a good game here, especially for this price. Just might be worth considering a fade for tournaments because of how popular he’ll be.
Meanwhile I like Yeldon’s spot this week. A lot. He hasn’t scored a TD in 3 straight and hasn’t even broken 13 points in those games…and it’s the Jaguars…so the risk is obviously there. But he’s a true 3 down back that they are giving a ton of work to, Bortles has looked shaky lately, and Chargers run D stinks. Think there’s a great opportunity for him to put up a 20-25 spot here.
Consider – some risky tournament options: Tevin Coleman and Ronnie Hillman. You won’t sneak up on anyone with AP or Doug Martin, but they’re very strong plays.
Amari Cooper $6.8K
DeAndre Hopkins against the Saints D is what you dream about. He’ll also be 50%+ owned. You may just have to bite the bullet and play him so he doesn’t put up an Antonio-Brown-45 pointer right in your contrarian face, but I certainly can’t be recommending him as a tourney play here. Also Julio Jones and OBJ should have field days if you’ve got the salary for them.
For a GPP play I’ll roll with Amari Cooper, who is coming off a monster 1 catch, 4 yard, 1.4 fantasy point performance. Hoping that basically a 0 point game will keep people off him – I mean it’s almost keeping me off him. But Derek Carr didn’t all of a sudden become a horrible QB just because of one bad game, Cooper didn’t lose all his talent, and the Titans D certainly isn’t scaring anyone. I’ll take a shot on a freak athlete with an up-and-coming star QB looking to rebound against a crappy opponent.
Consider – I like Eric Decker and Allen Hurns as two solid tournament plays, and maybe even Stefon Diggs to come back from the dead and make a splash. If you don’t feel good about Amari, roll with Crabtree instead. And how about Antonio Brown? Should have Richard Sherman all over him, but if he can break a couple…
Good luck on Sunday. Got any sweet sleeper picks I should consider? Tweet them at me.