Welcome back to the daily DraftKings picks where we try to get super rich playing daily fantasy football. As usual I’ll do a brief recap of my lineups from the week before then throw out some picks that I’m brainstorming for this weekend, and hopefully get some good feedback/tips/picks from you guys either in the comment section or on Twitter @kmarkobarstool.
Had a pretty solid Sunday – let’s go over my optimal lineup, thought process in building it, then we’ll jump in to this week’s picks.
(ownership % are all reset on the app, haven’t seen that happen before)
QB – Big Ben was my pick of the week, and what a roller coaster ride it was. He started off chucking it around like crazy and racking up the yards, only to have all his TDs stolen by DeAngelo. Then he turned it on and put up some TDs…and got injured and carted off the field. The end result was great, 25+ points is solid, but definitely could have tacked on some more at the end there.
RB – I mentioned how the % ownership tools like The Field Report are good for research purposes but far from dead accurate – classic example right here. I went with Langford as my featured blog pick because it appeared he would be way lower owned than the guy I wanted to roll with, De’Angelo Williams. In reality, once Sunday rolled around, Langford was higher owned, and Williams became the highest scoring back of the week in a massive game. Langford paid off and I’m happy with a 25 spot of course, but just a reminder, don’t let the early week research tools dictate your lineups TOO much.
As usual, AP was verrryyy low owned, and I’ll keep putting him out there in good matchups because he’s still got the talent to put up big scores.
WRs: Antonio Brown – wow. This is the classic argument – to fade or not to fade? Everyone knew Antonio would be very highly owned, and savvy tournament players know you want to go contrarian with guys like that. But at the same time – could you really win a tournament without Antonio’s 50 points? I recommended in my blog pairing Ben with Antonio Brown, followed my own advice and it paid off nicely.
The double stack with Bryant wasn’t as great, but he did pull a TD out of it. And I said B-Marsh would be virtually 0% owned, and he was close – think he ended up around 1.5 or 2%. A late touchdown in an otherwise mediocre game helped him at least salvage the pick. And Brandon LaFell I loved for my flex spot – dirt cheap and an obvious target for Brady. He can’t drop every ball ever thrown to him forever.
TE – That lineman downfield to erase the late Gates TD was a killer.
Couldn’t end up squeezing my blog WR pick Emmanuel Sanders into my final optimal lineup, but he paid off for you also if you rolled with him.
This week’s tournament picks:
Blake Bortles $5.6K
Not sure I thought I’d ever see the day where I was recommending a Jacksonville Jaguars QB as a featured play under my own proud name, yet here we are. Facts are facts – the Ravens pass defense has been atrocious, and Bortles has been money fantasy-wise. He’s got 2 great young receivers and his star tight end is finally back and relatively healthy – all signs point to a big game, and hopefully not too many people have the stomach to roster him. Remember this is a tournament play so it’s far from safe but the upside and low price is a great place to look for your GPP lineups. Check the injury reports though because if Hurns can’t play it might lower the upside a little bit…I’ll still be rolling with him regardless.
If safety is your thing, you can’t argue with Brady against that Giants pass D, and Aaron Rodgers should shred the Lions up. If you like even LESS safety than Bortles and don’t mind the taste of vomit in your mouth as you select a quarterback, might I suggest Kirk Cousins and Matt Cassel? (Hahaha…Matt Cassel. Am I drunk? He’ll be what, 0.1% owned though)
Mark Ingram $6.4K
Todd Gurley and De’Angelo Williams are almost impossible fades this week – they have incredible matchups and are almost guaranteed to put up 25+ points, both at very reasonable prices. I’m absolutely not suggesting you don’t play them. But this is also a tournament pick, and rostering two 40-50% owned guys at running back is going to make it tough for you to find yourself near the top of any leaderboard – so I’m taking a look at Mark Ingram in the featured spot. Kind of “burned” people last week with a great matchup because Brees started airing it out all over the field – hoping that keeps his ownership down this week, where he has another great matchup against the Titans run D. Combine all that with Brees outside of the dome and relying on the run game a little more and you could have a great GPP play here.
For your consideration: James Starks was named the #1 running back and has a baller matchup with the Lions run D – just be careful not to get burned by a Rodgers 5 TD passing game, and know you’re only going to get around 15 carries out of him. I like Doug Martin as a tournament play as well, people will be off him coming after 2 bad performances.
Stefon Diggs $5.1K
Once the highest owned WR the slate, Diggs saw his numbers dip wayyyy down last week, and for good reason – the Rams D is not one you want to pick on with receivers. Hopefully the bad game combined with people’s short memories will result in low on him again, because he’s got an A+ matchup with the Raiders and Bridgewater is on track to start. Should be looking at 100+ and at least 1 TD against a crappy pass D for a very low price and hopefully no more than 10 ownership.
I would expect Alshon to be the highest owned guy this week, but like I hinted at above – I don’t love the matchup. I’m sure he’ll get plenty of catches and probably put up a very solid game, but I’m not sure his price and % justifies a tournament play. Instead I’d check out Dez Bryant and Julian Edelman are possible under-owned guys with massive upside, and if we’re doing dart throws for high risk high upside plays…check out Travis Benjamin and Tavon Austin.
Jordan Reed $4.6K
Ok I gave you 3 (hopefully) low owned tournament plays, now I earned one chalky play. Jordan Reed is my personal favorite TE of the weekend no matter what his ownership is expected to be and his 25 point upside for only 4.6K is calling my name. I expect either him or Eifert to be the highest owned TE, both for good reason.
Gronk is always worth considering, and going over the middle of the GMen’s atrocious pass D is a 40 point game waiting to happen. Greg Olsen could fly under the radar this week and he’s a great option especially with how well he and Cam have been connecting lately.
Good luck on Sunday. Got any sweet sleeper picks I should consider? Tweet them at me.