Two weeks of football are now in the books, and we are now on to Week 3 with injuries to digest and information to analyze. This Cheat Sheet will start to shift to the 2016 stats, especially in the DvP section. Be sure to come check in in the coming weeks as well, as this article will start to feature target reports for the prior week as well. As always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Highest Projected Total Score
San Diego Chargers vs.Indianapolis Colts
Projected Point Total: 52 points
The highest projected total of the week (main slate only – Monday Night Football is not included) belongs to two teams that have been ravaged with injuries this season, the Chargers and the Colts. Coming into this matchup, the Colts are favored slightly with 26.5 projected points and the Chargers at 25. With that being said, I think it’s completely logical to like the Chargers more in this spot, as the Colts defense continues to lose key players every single week. In their Week Two matchup against the Broncos, the Colts lost CB’s Darius Butler and Antonio Cromartie. With the injuries piling up, I think we see the first 250 passing yard game of the season for Rivers. Even though he’s not grabbing the yards, he still has five touchdowns on the season, with four of those coming last week. With Travis Benjamin looking like he’s fully capable of handling the number one receiver title, these two should be a fine stack.
Lowest Projected Total Score
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Projected Point Total: 41.5 points
Miami and Cleveland not only have the lowest projected total of the week, but the widest margain of victory with the Dolphins as 10-point favorites. The Browns only have a projected total of 16.5, because they will start their third quarterback of the season in untested Cody Kessler. During the preseason, Kessler completed 19-27 passes for 92 yards with a 1:0 TD:INT ratio, but those stats won’t translate to a regular season NFL game. One has to wonder how much they’ll let Kessler air it out in this one, as the Browns could focus on the running game with Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson. Crowell has dominated the touches this season 30:6 over Johnson and faces a Dolphins defense that is allowing 3.9 YPC in two games this season. Overall, this is a mess of a situation and should only be considered by the boldest of bold in larger field tournaments.
Worst QB Matchups
1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Coming into Week 3, the Eagles have held opposing quarterbacks to 425 yards with a 60% completion rate and no touchdowns. Along with the Seattle Seahawks, they are one of only two teams that have not allowed a passing touchdown this season.
2. Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals have already nabbed four interceptions on the season while allowing just two touchdowns by opposing quarterbacks. The Cardinals have kept the quarterback mostly under wraps, allowing a 60% completion rate on 85 targets for 507 yards.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens have allowed the least amount of passing yards by a quarterback this season with just 371 yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 63% of their 55 targets with two touchdowns. As good as the Ravens have been, they’ve faced very weak competition in the Bills and Browns.
Best QB Matchups
1. Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders– The Raiders have been shredded by opposing quarterbacks in the first two weeks of the season. Tied with Atlanta with a league leading seven touchdowns allowed, opposing QB’s have completed 71% of their 76 targets for a league leading 819 yards.
2. Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions– Not far behind the Raiders are the Lions, who have allowed six passing touchdowns in the early going. With 70% of 80 targets being completed, the Lions have only grabbed one interception and allowed 623 passing yards.
3. Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Rams will square off with the Bucs who have allowed five passing touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season and have yet to grab an interception. With 653 passing yards allowed, opposing teams are grabbing 62% of the 74 targets thus far.
Worst RB Matchups
1. Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans– The Titans are one of six teams that has not allowed a rushing touchdown on the season thus far. Opposing running backs are being held to just 3.4 YPC.
2. Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – The Packers have allowed one rushing touchdown on the season so far, but are allowing nearly nothing in terms of yards. With just 1.8 YPC on 44 carries, the Packers have been stonewalling opposing running backs.
3. Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers have not allowed a rushing touchdown in the first two games of the season as they come into this matchup with the Seahawks. Running backs have gained 3.8 YPC in the early going on 49 carries for 187 yards.
Best RB Matchups
1. San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts– With Melvin Gordon now the lead back in San Diego, he has a tasty matchup ahead against the Colts. Aside from the three rushing touchdowns allowed already, the Colts are allowing 4.6 YPC thus far on 51 carries.
2. New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins– The Redskins lead the league with four rushing touchdowns allowed as they head into their Week 3 matchup with the Giants. Allowing 4.2 YPC on 58 carries, the Redskins have allowed the second most yards in the league at 245.
3. New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs lead the league in rushing yards allowed with 248 as they head into their matchup with the Jets. Opposing running backs are gaining 4 YPC on 61 carries with two rushing TDs.
Worst WR Matchups
1. San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks continue to live up to the hype on defense this season, at least when it comes to wide receivers. They are one of five teams that has not allowed a TD while holding opposing wideouts to 241 yards on a 59% completion rate over 37 targets.
2. Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers – With Adrian Peterson out for the foreseeable future, it will be interesting to see how much the Vikings are forced to air it out. They have a tough test coming up against the Panthers who have allowed just one touchdown and 219 yards on 40 targets. Of those 40 targets, only 47% have been completed.
3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos – The Broncos continue to be a stonewall against opposing wide receivers this season. Allowing the least amount of yards at 203, opposing wide receivers have caught one touchdown with a 40% completion percentage on 40 targets.
Best WR Matchups
1. Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders – As I mentioned earlier, the Raiders have been picked apart thus far, allowing a league leading 564 yards with an 81% completion rate on 43 targets! Lets not fail to mention the league leading five touchdowns they’ve allowed either, which is tied with two other teams.
2. Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets – A ton of buzz has circulated about the demise of Revis Island and it shows in the numbers. Opposing wide receivers have grabbed 28 of 38 targets against the Jets for a 73% completion rate, 533 yards and three touchdowns.
3. L.A. Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Buccaneers are one of the three teams that have allowed five touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, with the Raiders and Jaguars being the others. The Bucs have allowed 327 yards on a 52% completion rate over 40 targets.
Worst TE Matchups
1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles– The Eagles have only seen seven targets go to opposing tight ends, so naturally they are leading the way in the early going. Opposing TE’s only have caught four of them for 33 yards, so that’s been the extent of the damage.
2. Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills – The Bills are tied with the Eagles for the least amount of targets to opposing tight ends at seven. Just like those Eagles, four of those were caught for 44 yards.
3. Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals – Again, the tight end position is such a fickle beast, it’s hard to really get a grasp on it, especially in the early going. The Cardinals have seen eight of 11 targets caught for 44 yards.
Best TE Matchups
1. Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions – Let’s keep it simple, the Lions have allowed 15 of 20 targets to be caught for 189 yards and a league leading four touchdowns from the tight end position!
2. Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – This game could be fantastic for tight ends on both teams, as both the Packers and Lions have seen plenty of damage done to them from the tight end position. The Packers have allowed 10-15 targets to be completed for 143 yards and two touchdowns.
3. Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders were one of the worst teams against the tight end position last season and it’s carrying over into the 2016 season. In the first two weeks, the Raiders have allowed a touchdown with 186 yards and 11 of 17 targets being completed.
Lineup Quick Hits
QB To Build Lineups Around…
Philip Rivers ($6,700) – I think this is as an amazing spot for Rivers. To begin with, I think he’s underpriced at just $6,700, plus he has a tasty matchup against the Colts. Thus far, Indy has allowed three passing TDs on 606 yards with a 73% completion rate. Rivers has yet to eclipse 250 yards this season, but he has thrown for five touchdowns, thus saving his performances in terms of fantasy points. Pairing him with his top wide receiver (Travis Benjamin) is such a cheap stack that I think it will be one of the more valuable ones in Week 3.
WR To Pair Him With…
Travis Benjamin ($5,200) – With Danny Woodhead gone for the season, it raises the value of Benjamin and Melvin Gordon. Benjamin has responded very well to his new role, grabbing 12 of 14 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns. His $5,200 price tag makes him almost a must for this week, as he legitimately could see close to double-digit targets this week.
The Top RB Will Be…
David Johnson ($7,700) – Taking a stack of Rivers/Benjamin will easily allow you to grab Johnson here in Week 3. Yes, he’s the most expensive running back on the slate, but he truly does it all for the Cardinals, and his involvement in the passing game is no small thing considering DraftKings has PPR scoring. Don’t be scared off by the fact that he was out touched by Chris Johnson last week 16-12, as David has been featured in the passing game as well, grabbing 7-11 targets through two games. With 98 yards through the air (just two shy of the 100 receiving yard bonus on DraftKings) Johnson is one of the most consistent players week in and week out.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.