Fantasy Football WR Target Projections: Most Volume for Divisional Round

Volume significantly raises both the floor and ceiling of wide receivers. These are the ones I project to see the most targets in the divisional round (Sunday main slate only). Please note these aren’t rankings, just volume projections.

Check out four value target projections here.

Michael Thomas, NO vs. PHI, $7,900 — Since Mark Ingram returned in Week 5, Thomas has only gone over 20 DK points in 4-of-12 games. That’s in large part because the Saints have leaned on the run/reduced Drew Brees’ attempts, which is a problem for Thomas’ pathetic 7.93-yard aDOT. However, when the Saints get into shootouts (as they tend to do at the Superdome), Thomas can post huge lines thanks to a massive 28.3 percent target share and elite end-zone role. Only DeAndre Hopkins saw more targets inside the 10-yard line than Thomas during the regular season.
Projection: 10 targets


T.Y. Hilton, IND at KC, $6,700 — Hilton’s ankle remains well less than 100 percent, but he continues to be on the field for nearly all passing plays and operate as Andrew Luck’s first read consistently. We safely can project a volume spike for Luck here because of how effective/explosive the Chiefs’ offense is. They faced the most pass attempts during the regular season (39.5) and allowed opponents to run the second-most plays per game (69.3).
Projection: 10 targets


Keenan Allen, LAC at NE, $6,400 — We don’t know exactly how Bill Belichick will deploy his elite corner duo of Stephon Gilmore (ProFootball Focus’s No. 1 CB) and Jason McCourty (No. 7). We do know 47 of Allen’s 97 catches came from the slot, and Gilmore (109 slot snaps) and McCourty (194) don’t primarily play there. Regardless of matchup, Allen always is in play thanks to raw talent plus 8.5 targets per game. Just be aware he finished the regular season 99th among 126 qualifying WRs in aDOT and 58th in YAC per reception. It’s not a recipe for a fantasy ceiling.
Projection: 9 targets


Tyreek Hill, KC vs. IND, $7,400 — The Colts’ zone scheme forced opponents into the shallowest aDOT in the league and allowed the third-fewest passing touchdowns. That said, the past 11 QBs they faced in the regular season were Blaine Gabbert, Eli Manning, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Cody Kessler, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Derek Anderson and Sam Darnold. Now they go to Arrowhead to meet Patrick Mahomes and Hill. The Colts project as a pass funnel once adjusted for opponent, as they’re fourth DVOA vs. the run and 20th DVOA vs. the pass.
Projection: 9 targets


Julian Edelman, NE vs. LAC, $6,300 — Edelman draws a tough matchup against the Chargers’ dime defense and elite slot CB Desmond King. But with Josh Gordon gone, Chris Hogan uneven and Rob Gronkowski a shell of himself, Tom Brady doesn’t have many other places to turn. Edelman averaged 9.0 targets per game and was fourth in the league in targets inside the 10-yard line — even though he was suspended for the first four games.
Projection: 9 targets


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