Fantasy Football: Week 10 Running Back Touch, Target Projections

WATCH: Make Your Picks: Week 10 Teams to Target


STUDS

Melvin Gordon, LAC at OAK, $9,000 – One of my favorite plays each week, Gordon gets a dream matchup against a dumpster fire Raiders defense which just let an UDFA at Quarterback carve them up for 34 points on primetime television. The Raiders are 25th in rush DVOA and 32nd in DVOA to pass-catching running backs so far this season. Oakland is still giving up the second-most yards per attempt (5.9) to opposing running backs at home and Gordon ranks seventh amongst running backs averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

Gordon is averaging 72% of the snaps and seeing 15 carries, six targets and five receptions this season; Oakland is in full rebuild mode and Gordon, along with Austin Ekeler ($4,000), are fantastic plays this week even though it’s Gordon’s highest salary all season.

Projections:
Rushing: 21 Attempts
Receiving: 6 Targets; 4 Receptions
Total: 25 Touches


Kareem Hunt, KC v. ARI, $8,500 – As long as Hunt keeps up the production, he’ll make it in the column every week, until the DK Live editors tell me to remove him. It’s nice to see coach Andy Reid not squander away the Chiefs’ great start as he usually does around this time; Hunt’s production took a dip in his rookie season from Weeks 1-4 where he averaged 17 attempts, to seeing 11 attempts from Weeks 9-13 (Week 10 was a bye). During this span, the Chiefs went 0-4.

This year, Hunt has proven to be a valuable asset in this high-powered offense seeing 16 carries a game, with 13 total TDs, six of which coming from the receiving game giving Hunt a high floor and ceiling. The Cardinals are giving up 29.5 attempts per game, ranking first for opposing running backs this season.

Projections:
Rushing: 19 Attempts
Receiving: 4 Targets; 3 Receptions
Total: 22 Touches


James White, NE at TEN, $7,300 – Usually saved for the playoffs, White has been propelled into fantasy relevance for the first time in the regular season due to injuries, and he’s been great. Never known as a workhorse running back, White has been one of the best pass-catching running backs, and is sixth in receptions amongst all pass catchers (Julio Jones is ranked seventh).

He’s facing a Tennessee defense which is decent against the run, ranking 8th in defending against pass-catching running backs, but still in the bottom half in total run defensive DVOA at 16th. His floor is solid, averaging over 27 DraftKings fantasy points over the last three games, but with Sony Michel ($5,300) most likely back from injury, this caps White’s upside and potential ceiling.

Projections:
Rushing: 5 Attempts
Receiving: 9 Targets; 7 Receptions
Total: 12 Touches


Tevin Coleman, $5,400, ATL at CLE We finally saw Coleman take advantage in a plus-matchup against Washington last week and is set up for another plus-matchup against a Cleveland defense which cannot stop the run. Ito Smith ($3,700) offers some value under $4,000 ranking 22nd in overall red-zone rushing, but Coleman will be able to take advantage against the Browns, who are third in attempts per game (25) and rank 30th in rush DVOA through Week 9.

Projections:
Rushing: 15 Attempts
Receiving: 4 Targets; 3 Receptions
Total: 18 Touches


Tarik Cohen, CHI v. DET, $5,500 – one reception on two targets. This is something to monitor, but he gets a prime bounce-back opportunity against a Lions team who plays a lot of zone coverage, allowing running backs to thrive.

Cohen is averaging about 53% of the snaps of the last three weeks in games that have been decided by a margin of eight points/one possession, which bodes well for his usage floor. Jordan Howard ($4,700) is much more game-script dependent; we’ve seen his usage go from 72% of the snaps in Week 2 to the mid-50s in Weeks 6 and 7, games which were decided by a touchdown or less. Detroit is giving up the second most yards per game on the ground (134) and eighth most attempts per game (24). This should be a plus-matchup for Chicago’s dynamic playmaker.

Projections:
Rushing: 8 Attempts
Receiving: 7 Targets; 6 Receptions
Total: 14 Touches


VALUES

Dion Lewis, TEN v. NE, $4,600 – The clear lead back in Tennessee has now emerged after 10 weeks and gets narrative street just in time. Dion Lewis will face his old team when the Patriots travel to Tennessee this Sunday. Lewis shined on Monday night while Derrick Henry ($3,800) not only took a backseat seeing only 33% of the snaps, but also was reported to have been tossed around in trade talks before the deadline.

The Patriots have had issues with smaller/dynamic backs like Lewis; Cohen finished with 22 DraftKings fantasy points and Colts RB Nyheim Hines finished with 22 total touches and 90 total yards, finishing with 16 DraftKings fantasy points. Lewis averaged 16 attempts and five targets over the last two games and gets a New England defense allowing the fifth-most targets per game (8.2).

Projections:
Rushing: 15 Attempts
Receiving: 6 Targets; 5 Receptions
Total: 20 Touches


Mike Davis, SEA at LAR, $4,300 – Chris Carson should be out this Sunday and is considered week-to-week opening the door for Davis, who saw 22 total touches on 73% of the snaps. Last time these teams met in Week 5, Carson and Davis rushed the rock 31 times, totaling 54% of the plays run.

Davis should see the same volume and provide us with a safe floor getting the majority of targets out of the backfield to hopefully keep the Rams’ pass rush at bay. Los Angeles are ranked 24th in rush DVOA.

Projections:
Rushing: 15 Attempts
Receiving: 5 Targets; 4 Receptions
Total: 19 Touches


Austin Ekeler, LAC at OAK, $4,000 – Dovetailing off the Gordon take, Ekeler is the value play if you’re looking for savings. He is my favorite play in this range and offers a ton of upside. His floor is four total touches (Week 9), but ceiling is 17 total touches (Week 7). He’ll be closer to his ceiling facing the Raiders and should keep/exceed his 5.8 yards per rush attempt on Sunday, which ranks second to only Packers RB Aaron Jones ($5,000).

Projections:
Rushing: 8 Attempts
Receiving: 5 Targets; 5 Receptions
Total: 13 Touches


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