This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, likely low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,000) – Davante Adams ($8,400) – Julio Jones ($7,900)
As much I like targeting the Colts-Texans game (see “just missed”) “Angry” Aaron Rodgers is an event I don’t want to pass on. The Packers enter Week 14 off the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy in a setup that looks perfect for Rodgers to celebrate the departure of his former coach with a monster game. The Falcons’ defense has allowed the second-most DKFP to opposing QBs in 2018 and have allowed three or more passing TDs seven times this season. There might be a sense of frustration with Rodgers entering this game, but coming off an embarrassing loss at home and now having had a week to hear some media defend his former head coach, this feels like an “exorcise the demons” spot against a team that has yielded career days to multiple QBs this year.
Stacking Rodgers isn’t difficult, either, as Adams has 18 more red zone targets than anyone else on Green Bay and faces a Falcons secondary that has the fifth-worst DVOA rating against opposing No. 1 wide receivers (via footballoutsiders.com). On the flip side, a Rodgers explosion likely would mean more targets for Jones, who himself should be looking for some redemption after getting shut down by Baltimore. Jones comes in averaging 11 targets and faces a Green Bay secondary that has been pulverized by big athletic receivers like Stefon Diggs and Josh Gordon. He’s a great way to complete this stack, which is expensive, but brings lots of slate-breaking potential to tournament lineups this week.
Just Missed: Andrew Luck ($5,800) – T.Y. Hilton ($6,300) – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800)
Deshaun Watson ($5,900)
Watson and the Texans can almost close out the division this week with a win over the Colts, and so we shouldn’t expect anything to be held back in terms of play-calling from the offense. The second-year QB dealt with some injury issues early in the year but has rushed 16 times for 100 yards and a TD in his past two games and is in a spot this week — against an up-tempo team in a vital game — where he’ll not shy away from using his legs if needed. Watson comes into this week ranked ninth in DraftKing scoring among QBs on the year but with 11 TD and just two INTs over his past five games. In a game between two up-tempo teams, with a relatively close spread and lots of real-life implications, Watson could produce a mammoth fantasy day here as he tries to lead his team to the playoffs.
Just Missed: Ryan Tannehill ($4,800)
Alvin Kamara ($8,100)
Sentiment on Kamara is understandably lower than usual. The Saints’ RB has just one TD in his past three games and was held fully in check last week as he could only manage 72 yards on 19 touches. Week 14 brings a get right spot for Kamara, however, as the Buccaneers’ run defense has crumbled of late, allowing more than 100 yards rushing to an opposing RB in each of their past three games and four TDs to the position overall in that span. The Saints have the highest implied team total on the slate — 31.75 as of writing — yet Kamara seems destined to go at least slightly overlooked here based on two consecutive sluggish performances. New Orleans is in a great spot to rebound quickly after a tough Week 13 loss, and Kamara particularly should benefit from the matchup with a big Week 14.
Kenyan Drake ($4,500)
Drake’s increased usage as a receiver has helped him to some big games in the second part of the season and, overall, he’s posted three games already with 23 or more DKFP. Despite all of this and the fact he’s scored three times in his past two games, Drake finds himself at his lowest price point of the year this week on DraftKings at just $4,500. The Patriots have a solid defense but have allowed the ninth-most receptions to opposing RBs this season, and with the Dolphins slated as +7.5-8.0 underdogs for this game, Drake should get a chance at putting up a solid PPR total this week once again. The projected game flow favors more usage from Drake, who brings solid upside at an extremely good price point.
Just Missed: Justin Jackson ($3,800)
T.Y. Hilton ($6,300)
Hilton enters this game with 32 targets over his past three games and once again seems to be the focus on the Colts’ aerial attack. Attacking the Texans’ defense might put some people off, but Houston has not been great at limiting other teams’ No. 1 wide receivers this season and has the seventh-worst DVOA rating (via footballoutsiders.com) versus opponents’ No. 1 WRs this year. Hilton also has a great history against Houston, going for over 100 yards receiving in three of his past five games against it. Given the Texans’ solid rush defense — fifth fewest rush yards allowed per game — and the fact the game total here has been pushing up towards 50 all week, we should project for lots of passing from the Colts this week, giving Hilton a great shot at another huge day for fantasy.
Golden Tate ($4,800)
Tate has seen consistent usage since he’s joined the Eagles, recording 23 targets now over his past three games. He’s also coming off what was easily his best performance as an Eagle. He was able to take in all seven of his targets last week against Washington for 85 yards and a TD. The Cowboys’ defense has played well recently, but they have given up big games to slot receivers at various points this year with Tate himself going for 132 yards and two TDs against Dallas earlier in the season when he was with Detroit. With many people focused on the opportunities for Courtland Sutton ($4,500) and Chris Godwin ($4,900) in this range, Tate has a chance to go under-owned in a better-than-perceived matchup.
Just Missed: Kenny Golladay ($6,400)
Vance McDonald ($3,800)
McDonald’s solidified himself as a tertiary option in the passing game for the Steelers and comes into Week 14 averaging five targets per game. While he hasn’t had a ton of “boom” moments this year, he has scored more than 13 DKFP three times and has the sort of after-the-catch ability to break off a big play. The matchup this week suggests this could be a game for McDonald to do just that. The Raiders have been terrible at defending against opposing TEs this year, allowing the second-most DKFP per game to the position and coming off a week where they got absolutely shelled by the Chiefs’ TEs, who recorded 15 catches and three TDs. McDonald’s a great leverage play in tournaments, too, as most people will be looking to roster a cheap Steelers RB but might overlook the upside here with McDonald.
Just Missed: Matt Lacosse ($2,700)
Detroit Lions ($2,900)
The Lions might be in the middle of a lost season, but their DST has a chance at a big Week 14. Detroit held up well against the Rams last week for much of the game, but its offense let it down with some bad turnovers late. Still, the Lions enter this week’s game ranked 10th in the league in sacks and with four turnovers in their past three games. More importantly, they’re at full strength with key players Darius Slay and Ezekiel Ansah both finally healthy, and they take on the Cardinals, who are last in the league in points scored per game and sixth in the league in giveaways.
The Lions have had their issues stopping the run this year, but the Cardinals have a terrible rushing attack, averaging just 86 yards rushing per game — the second-lowest amount in the league. Detroit has the talent to pop up here for a big game, even it’s just for one week, making it a great Week 14 target in tournaments.
Just Missed: New York Giants ($2,500)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.