This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, likely low-owned plays and stacks from the weekend slate that (hopefully) pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Dak Prescott ($5,500) – Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) – Amari Cooper ($7,500) – Doug Baldwin ($6,200)
The previous time the Seahawks and Cowboys met, Elliott rumbled for 7.9 YPC on just 16 rushes in a 24-13 loss. A lot has changed since then, but the Seahawks still make for a great target for the volume-based Zeke. Their defense has allowed the 12th-most DKFP per game to opposing running backs on the season, while also allowing the seventh-most receptions to RBs this year.
The Seahawks also present a great opportunity for Cooper this week, which makes a complete Cowboys offensive stack look like an attractive play for fantasy purposes. Prescott has thrown 14 TDs vs. three INTs at home this season and is averaging more than four DKFP more per game at home than on the road. The Cowboys have been under-the-radar explosive of late, reaching 27 points or more in four of their past six games, making this a great spot to deploy their three biggest weapons against a defense that hasn’t been as effective on the road.
Coming back with Baldwin also makes sense as the Cowboys have had issues guarding against slot receivers this season. Baldwin has overcome knee issues late in the season and has scored four times over his past four games. His targets easily could approach low double-digits in this game if the Cowboys’ offense takes control early, and he would be the most likely Seahawk to benefit if the team found itself in a garbage-time/catch-up spot.
Just Missed — Andrew Luck ($6,400) – Eric Ebron ($5,200) – DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700)
Lamar Jackson ($5,800)
Jackson has averaged just over 79 yards rushing per game since taking over as the starting QB for the Ravens in Week 11 and is coming off his best fantasy game as a pro, rushing for two TDs and 90 yards against the Browns last week. Baltimore is a three-point home favorite in this week’s games against the Chargers, and with a fairly even slate in terms of potential point projections, taking the discount on Jackson this week seems reasonable given his rushing upside. The Chargers limited Jackson to just 39 yards rushing in a close game the last time these two met, but with this game taking place in Baltimore, where Jackson has recorded his three biggest fantasy games as starter, it’s likely we’ll see a bigger rushing total from the rookie this week. Jackson’s a terrific “naked” QB target and gives you great exposure to an underrated Ravens offense this week.
Just Missed — Mitch Trubisky ($6,200)
Tarik Cohen ($5,400)
Cohen has played less snaps than Jordan Howard ($4,600) the past two weeks, which might have people down on his fantasy prospects for this game, but the matchup against the Eagles should dictate more Cohen. Philadelphia has ceded the fifth-fewest rushing yards this season to opposing RBs, with RBs averaging just 27.3 yards rushing against it the past three games. The Eagles have allowed the second-most receptions to opposing RBs this year, however, and with several of the Bears’ wideouts banged up heading into this game, you could see more Cohen lined out wide, regardless of if Howard is on the field or not. Cohen led the Bears in receptions during the regular season with 71, and his PPR prowess has a chance to be on full display.
Kenneth Dixon ($4,000)
Dixon is coming off his best game of the season, rushing for for 117 yards last week on just 12 carries. The oft-injured back has been injected into a main role in the Ravens’ offense over the past month, and the fact he’s led the Ravens’ RBs in snaps in two of the past three weeks is significant. Dixon’s the most well-rounded back the Ravens have, and while he’s not seeing a ton of passing game targets, his potential in that regard gives him better upside than Gus Edwards ($4,200) in DraftKings PPR scoring. The Chargers are a plus matchup for Dixon. They’ve allowed the ninth-most DKFP per game to opposing RBs this year and the fourth-most receptions overall. If you like the Ravens to control the pace with their defense and run game, Dixon might be the best non-Jackson option to target on Baltimore.
Just Missed — Nyheim Hines ($3,500)
Amari Cooper ($7,500)
Cooper ended the season with three straight fantasy games of less than 10 DKFP, and it likely has people having flashbacks of his time with Oakland. Despite the late-season slump, there’s reason to think he’ll show more upside in this week’s matchup against Seattle, which ended the year eighth worst in defensive DVOA in guarding against opposing team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Seattle allowed six different wideouts to go for more than 100 yards receiving this year, and Cooper’s matchup against either Tre Flowers or Shaquill Griffin is a winnable one for him. Seattle also has been worse defensively on the road, allowing an average of 29.5 points against in its past three road games. Cooper admittedly has been entirely boom or bust since moving to Dallas, but his upside looks intact here, especially considering his three best games as a Cowboy have come in Dallas.
Keke Coutee ($4,000)
Coutee is on track to return for the Texans this week, and given their lack of depth at the position, he might be in for a big game. Coutee recorded 11 receptions on 15 targets in Week 4 against the Colts and could be in for another big workload in this game given how much attention DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400) should garner from the Colts’ secondary. The Texans and Colts has the highest game total of any on the slate at 48.5, and targeting Coutee makes it easier to stack Deshaun Watson ($6,700) in this game. Given his lack of playing time, Coutee’s snap count isn’t certain, which does make him a riskier fantasy target, but if he does get reinserted into a full-time role, he’ll have slate-breaking upside at his bargain price.
Just Missed — Tyrell Williams ($4,100), Nelson Agholor ($3,800)
Mark Andrews ($3,500)
Andrews has put together an impressive rookie season and has developed a nice rapport with Jackson down the stretch. He heads into this game off a four-catch, 53-yard game where he was the most-targeted Baltimore TE (5) and has displayed some game-breaking after-the-catch ability at times. He displayed it the last time the Ravens played the Chargers, when he broke a short pass over the middle for a 67-yard TD. The Ravens’ passing game isn’t high-volume, but it’s important to note how much they use the TE position — 24 of 69 targets have gone to TEs in the past three games. With everything on the line this weekend, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Baltimore give Andrews a bigger push given how effective he’s been of late. The rookie’s a solid value target on a week where a lot of ownership likely will be centered around two higher-priced players at TE.
Just Missed — Dallas Goedert ($2,600)
Indianapolis Colts ($2,300)
The Colts’ DST heads into this week’s game having eclipsed 10.0 or more DKFP in six games this season. Indianapolis’ once-beleaguered defense has done a complete turnaround this year, allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the league and third-fewest passing TDs. More importantly, for DFS purposes, the Colts have an underrated matchup this week against the Texans, who feature one of the worst offensive Lines in the league. Houston had the worst adjusted sack rate this season and also gave up the most sacks overall. The Colts might have been middle-of-the-road in terms of sacks as unit (19th overall on the season), but their upside is increasingly heightened here. They also will be facing a Houston offense that is getting increasingly thin at wide receiver and might be relying solely on an increasingly banged-up DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700). The Colts’ DST has as good an upside as any this week, given the matchup, and looks like a solid value to target for those who can’t, or won’t, pay up at DST.
Just Missed — Los Angeles Chargers ($2,400)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.