WATCH: THE CASE FOR ADAM HUMPHRIES AGAINST THE JETS
Few of Week 10’s discount QBs hold much fantasy appeal. Their lack of appeal probably will drive up the popularity of the higher-priced options. That makes it even more important to find the QB-WR stack with the best chance to go crazy, ensuring that you get as much value as possible out of your quarterback. While some of these QBs are paired with a primary weapon, others highlight secondary options in favorable situations.
Without further adieu, let’s get to the recommendations.
5. Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) – Antonio Brown ($9,500)
Sometimes, it’s best not to overthink things. The Colts’ defense is bad. Really bad. In Week 9, Texans QB Tom Savage was the first QB to fail to score 18 fantasy points against the Colts. Brian Hoyer and DeShone Kizer both scored exactly 25.1 fantasy points against them — and both were benched mid-game the very next week due to poor performance.
Roethlisberger and Brown won’t come cheap, but especially in cash games, they probably are worth it. The matchup is so favorable that both have a very reasonable chance to end the week No. 1 at their respective positions. The Steelers have one of the highest implied totals this week. Brown is averaging 104.4 yards from 7.1 catches on 11.8 targets per game – if he simply matches those numbers, he would earn more than 20 DKFP, and that’s without any boost from the poor quality of the opponent. This Steelers stack likely will be widely owned (which is why they’re ranked below my other options), but if you feel good about your discount plays, these two are highly likely to do their part to keep your lineups in contention.
4. Matthew Stafford ($6,800) – Golden Tate ($6,800)
The fantasy community is high on Stafford this week, as he is the highest ranked QB according to FantasyPros’ average of expert ranks. Yet his salary is decidedly non-elite, and he’s just the fourth-most expensive QB for Week 10. While the Browns’ defense is improving, it has made more progress against the run than the pass, as two of its last three opponents scored at least 18 DKFP.
I love Tate this week, who likely will get unfairly ignored by many DFS players after Marvin Jones’ ($6,200) explosive Week 9. While both Tate and Jones went over 100 yards, Jones saw more targets and caught two touchdowns, and Jones costs $600 less in Week 10. But Kenny Golladay ($4,400) (hamstring) looks on track to return after missing five games. When Golladay was active in Weeks 1-3, his presence seemed to eat into Jones’ usage, while leaving Tate’s snaps, routes and targets effectively untouched. Furthermore, both of Jones’ touchdowns came on similar play calls, so it is safe to assume the Browns will spend some practice time figuring out how to prevent it.
3. Jared Goff ($6,700) – Robert Woods ($5,000)
The Texans’ defensive strength comes from their front seven – their pass defense has struggled significantly this season. They allowed four opposing QBs to score more than 23 DKFPs, all of whom eclipsed 300 yards with at least two TDs. The only QBs who have failed to reach 17 DKFPs against them were Blake Bortles, Kevin Hogan and Andy Dalton, whose offensive coordinator was fired the day after that game. Excluding Hogan, starting QBs against the Texans have a 15-3 TD-INT ratio. Though Goff has struggled against some of the leagues’ best pass defenses this season, he’s been very good against mediocre or worse pass defenses.
All three of the Rams’ talented receivers — Woods, Sammy Watkins ($4,800) and Cooper Kupp ($4,600) — are reasonable choices as Goff’s running mate. I’m going with Woods because I expect the Rams to run away with this game against the Tom Savage-led Texans, and Woods is the WR who would benefit most from such a game script. Woods leads the team in targets, receptions and yards, and he has the most stable production week to week. If the Rams build up a big lead and start milking the clock early, Woods is the most likely recipient of third-down targets if Todd Gurley ($8,700) can’t gain 10 yards on the first two attempts.
2. Matt Ryan ($6,500) – Mohamed Sanu ($5,100)
One of the best pieces of fantasy advice I ever heard came from long-time Falcons star wide receiver Roddy White. In the week after he was active, but only as a decoy, he told the fantasy community if players aren’t practicing, they likely are not able to do much come game day. Julio Jones (ankle), who was White’s teammate for the first five years of his career, missed Wednesday and Thursday practices — Jones’ first official missed practices this season. Even though he looks on track to play Sunday, it seems unlikely that he would be in line for his full complement of work. That creates a huge window of opportunity for Sanu, the Falcons’ No. 2 wideout, ahead of an excellent matchup against the Cowboys.
Jones is averaging 10.3 targets per game over his last three games – even if he does play, that seems likely to drop due to his physical limitations. Sanu isn’t as talented as Jones, but Sanu already has more touchdowns than Jones (three to one) and a higher catch rate. Sanu is averaging 6.3 targets per game, nearly two more than any other Falcons’ pass-catcher, and he has double-digit fantasy points in every game he’s completed.
Ryan has struggled compared to the lofty expectations he entered the season with, but he has quietly posted three straight games of at least 17 DKFPs, while his salary has dropped $1,000 from its early-season peaks. He’s attempted at least 28 passes in every game, so the volume is there, and this game has the highest projected score of any in Week 10.
1. Case Keenum ($4,800) – Adam Thielen ($6,700)
The Redskins are a tough opponent for wide receivers – non-slot wide receivers, that is. According to Pro Football Focus, the QB passer rating on passes to WRs when lined up on the outside is 53.0, while the QB passer rating on passes to WRs when lineup up in the slot is 101.2. Thielen has the fourth-most targets out of the slot this season. So while many daily gamers will be turned off by that big scary red “2nd” in the opponent rank next to Thielen’s name, because he is primarily used as a slot receiver, this is actually a pretty good matchup for him. If Stefon Diggs ($6,500) (tooth, groin) is active, Thielen’s ownership could drop even lower.
Keenum’s salary is down $1,000 from last week, despite throwing for 288 yards and 18.5 DKFP last time out. Some of that drop likely is due to the increased difficulty of the opponent, but the difference between the Browns and the Redskins is not worth $1,000. While the Redskins are good against (non-slot) receivers, they’ve been very generous to tight ends and struggled to contain pass-catching running backs. Seven different running backs have either four or more receptions or at least 30 yards receiving against them. They’ve allowed six tight ends at least 85 yards or a touchdown. The Vikings have both a good receiving TE and a quality pass-catching RB, so Keenum should have plenty of open targets.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is arikleen) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.