WATCH: THE EDGE – MATTHEW STAFFORD AMONG WEEK 10’S CONVICTION PLAYS
Here’s a data-driven breakdown featuring five key NFL stats, courtesy of FantasyLabs contributor Bryan Mears.
FantasyLabs is a daily fantasy tool and real-time analytics platform that enables players to test theories, create and backtest models, and construct customized lineups. In this piece, Mears leverages the same tools used by co-founders Jonathan Bales and Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) for each DraftKings fantasy football main slate.
7.27 Red-Zone Opportunities Per Game — Matthew Stafford
Although the Detroit Lions rank just 16th in the league with 3.0 red-zone trips per game, Stafford leads all Week 10 main slate QBs with 7.27 red-zone opportunities per game over the past year. That speaks to how pass-heavy the Lions are, ranking eighth on the season with a 62.43 pass-play percentage, and especially inside the 20-yard line.
Detroit is in a brilliant spot at home against a Cleveland Browns defense that should funnel production toward the passing game, as they rank a stout first in rush DVOA but a poor 28th in pass DVOA. The Lions are 11-point home favorites currently implied for 27.3 points — the third-highest mark on the week.
93.4 Percent Market Share Of Rushing Yards — Le’Veon Bell
Bell is coming off a bye week and will face an Indianapolis Colts defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and last to running backs in the passing game. There are a couple workhorses in the league, but none as extreme as Bell: Over the past year, he has received 93.4 percent of the Steelers’ RB snaps — no other main slate RB has approached even 80 percent. He leads all RBs with an average of 24 rushes per game and six targets per game.
Bell is in an incredible spot, and he’s the rare Pittsburgh Steeler who doesn’t carry QB Ben Roethlisberger’s negative home/road splits: In 24 road games since 2014, Bell has averaged slightly more points on the road (23.9) than at home (23.7), and exceeded his salary-based expectations by 3.5 points on average. He could be one of the most popular players of the week, and for good reason: He currently has the highest median and ceiling projections within our NFL models.
0.48 DraftKings Points Per Snap, Last Month — Golden Tate
Tate sits first among regular receivers in Week 10 with an average of 0.48 fantasy points per snap. He had seven targets in every game during that span, and he should keep rolling against the Browns.
Tate historically has been his best as a home favorite, averaging 15.6 DraftKings points and exceeding salary-based expectations by 3.21 points in 18 such instances since 2014. He saw 28.1 percent of the targets last week, and while he has a tough 1-on-1 matchup against slot corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun this week, the volume still should be there given Cleveland’s pass funnel defense.
87 Percent Upside Rating — Evan Engram
Giants rookie Engram leads all tight ends in Upside Rating, which is the percentage of games in which a player is one-half of a standard deviation above his salary-based expected output. He has been Eli Manning’s go-to guy of late: Over the past month, no New York Giant has a double-digit target share, except for Engram, who is at 25.2 percent over that time frame.
Engram will have a tough matchup on paper — the San Francisco 49ers rank first in DVOA against tight ends this season — but he’s essentially working as this team’s No. 1 wide receiver. He has received 22 targets over the last two games and certainly will have many opportunities in Week 10, as the Giants and 49ers both rank among the top six in pace of play. Engram currently has the highest ceiling projection among Week 10 TEs.
4.8 Projected Sacks — Pittsburgh Steelers Defense
We’re projecting sacks in our NFL models this season, and the Steelers’ defense ranks first by a wide margin in Week 10, with 4.8 projected sacks against the Colts. The Steelers rank second to only the Jacksonville Jaguars in sack rate (9.7 percent) and second to the Jags and the Cincinnati Bengals in yards per play allowed (6.41).
The Steelers will face a Colts team that’s currently implied for just 17.5 points in Week 10 and could have a limited T.Y. Hilton — he was a mid-week addition to the injury report with a groin issue. The Steelers have had a full week to rest up for this game, thanks to their bye, and should have many opportunities for takeaways as 10-point favorites.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is bcm9795) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.