NFL: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, and the overreactions are in peak full-blown mode. While Week 1 can help give us an indication of how things will look in the future, it’s important not to overreact. With that in mind, we’ll look ahead to Week 2, which features 13 games starting Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to reach out on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Also, make sure to download the DK Live app so you can get the latest injury news and analysis as the week progresses!

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

NO at LAR (-3) — 54 points

A rematch of the NFL Conference Championship also brings the highest projected total of Week 2. The Rams are not only favored by 3 but carry a high -162 moneyline as of Tuesday afternoon. In a game that will draw plenty of interest from a DFS standpoint, we have a lot to dive into here.

The Rams are in a great spot offensively. Picking on Saints cornerbacks Eli Apple and P.J. Williams will be a strategy to utilize as the season moves on. Williams primarily covers the slot, which is where Cooper Kupp ($6,000) operates. The chances of a big bounce-back game for him would be high and someone you shouldn’t be shy of taking in Week 2 after his disappointing 11.6-DKFP performance against the Panthers last week. Apple primarily plays on the left side, meaning he mostly should see Robert Woods ($6,400). Seeing as these are essentially the favorite targets for Jared Goff ($5,900), they should be in line for plenty of looks. Of course, Goff needs to be more accurate than he has been, completing just 59% of his 39 pass attempts last week for only 186 yards. On paper, they’re in a great spot. It’s all about if Goff can execute.

The Saints really came alive in the second half against the Texans on Monday, leading to their last-second win. The Rams allowed an average of 254 passing yards and 19.1 DKFP to opposing QBs last season. Despite the loss, the Rams held Drew Brees ($6,200) to 249 passing in the postseason matchup and 16.7 DKFP. In a game that is expected to have plenty of offense, I’d have no issue using Brees in this game. Alvin Kamara ($8,200) is the play I’d consider the most, especially after watching Christian McCaffrey go for 45.9 DKFP with 128 yards on 19 rushes and two touchdowns while also catching 10-of-11 targets for 81 yards last week.

Lowest Scoring Game

CHI (-1.5) at DEN — 40.5 points

I can’t say I’m overly excited about the game that has the lowest projected total on the slate. The most interesting storyline of this game is that Broncos head coach Vic Fangio was the Bears’ defensive coordinator last year. So if there was someone who knew how to really get pressure on Mitch Trubisky ($5,500), it’s Fangio. Although he might not have to do much after seeing how Trubisky looked in Week 1 against the Packers, completing just 57.8% of his 45 pass attempts for 228 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

With this in mind, I have almost zero interest in this game except for the Broncos D/ST ($2,700), which is the 15th most expensive on this slate. Tarik Cohen ($4,500) is intriguing as well, as he’s essentially a receiver in this offense. Cohen played out of the slot in 40 of his 60 snaps and just four in the backfield last week but didn’t register a carry. If he’s going to continue to be used in this role, he’ll draw some soft coverage and is a cheap play to consider.

DvP Matchups

This section will feature numbers from 2018 until the beginning on Week 4, when we’ll switch to the current 2019 stats.

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, 1st
Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, 2nd
Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, 3rd

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, 31st
San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, 30th
Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, 28th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, 1st
Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, 2nd
Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, 3rd

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, 32nd
Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, 31st
Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, 1st
Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2nd
Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, 3rd

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, 31st
Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, 28th
Cincinnati Bengals, San Fransisco 49ers, 26th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, 1st
Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, 3rd
Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, 4th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, 32nd
Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, 31st
Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, 30th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

Name, Team, Last Week’s OPP, Targets
Evan Engram, NYG, DAL, 14
Michael Thomas, NO, HOU, 14
Allen Robinson, CHI, GB, 13
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, DET, 13
Danny Amendola, DET, ARI, 13
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, NO, 13
Robert Woods, LAR, CAR, 13
John Ross, CIN, SEA, 12
Christian Kick, ARI, DET, 12
Tyler Boyd, CIN, SEA, 11

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Philip Rivers ($6,100) – This week will feature a lot of QBs in good matchups. Lamar Jackson ($6,700), Tom Brady ($6,400) and Goff are ones I expect to be popular this week. With that in mind, I’m digging Rivers in a matchup that shouldn’t garner much attention. In a game without Melvin Gordon last week, Rivers threw the ball 34 times in a close game against the Colts, completing 25 of those pass attempts for 333 yards and three touchdowns. His salary only went up $200, and he’ll face the Lions as -2.5 favorites. While it doesn’t have a total over 50 points like some of the other games, it does sit at 48.

Last season without Gordon on the field, the Chargers passed the ball just under 60% of the time while averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempts.

WR To Pair Him With…

Keenan Allen ($7,600) – Allen was the primary target for Rivers in Week 1, drawing 10 targets and catching eight of them for 123 yards, a touchdown and 29.3 DKFP. Allen, as he usually does, rotates on the outside and in the slot throughout the game. In Week 1, it was nearly a 50/50 split, playing 48% in the slot and 52% wide. Despite a slow first half for the Cardinals last week, their receivers were able to carve up this secondary in the second half and they’re not nearly as talented as what the Chargers will bring. If this game remains close as expected, it should be another good game for the Chargers’ No. 1 receiver.

The Top RB Will Be…

Alvin Kamara ($8,200) – I see what Christian McCaffrey did to this Rams defense last week and can’t help but want all the shares of Kamara. In a game that is expected to feature plenty of offense, I’m more than happy to pay up for Kamara. He was busy in the Saints’ win over the Texans, carrying the ball 13 times and making seven catches for a total of 169 yards and 23.9 DKFP. He actually dropped $300 in salary for this matchup, which isn’t huge in savings but doesn’t hurt. He should be busy once again in this game.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.