With the regular season now behind us, we turn our attention to the playoffs! This week features a four-game slate starting on Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET and will stretch into Sunday for the final two games. Be sure to download the DK Live app so you can follow along with your lineup and be the first to know about any late-breaking news. As always, you can follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Highest Scoring GameIND vs. HOU – 48 points
Of the four games on this slate, we start the playoffs off with what’s projected to be the highest scoring game with the Colts and Texans (-2). The Texans enter 8-8 against the spread and 7-9 vs. the over/under, which ranks amongst the worst in the league. The Texans were 6-2 at home this season, while the Colts were average at best on the road at 4-4. These teams are both no strangers to putting up points, we the Texans averaged 25.1 on the year and the Colts at 27.1.
Both Deshaun Watson ($6,700) and Andrew Luck ($6,400) are the highest priced QB’s on the slate and rightfully so. When these teams faced each other, Watson averaged 26.2 DKFP with 642 passing yards with a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. As for Luck, he loved playing against the Texans, averaging 33.5 DKFP while throwing for 863 yards with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. This matchup once again sets up perfectly for T.Y. Hilton ($7,800) as the Texans have really struggled against opposing WR1. On the year, they’re allowing an average of 77.4 yards per game, which is the sixth highest in the league. Despite the Colts among the lowest at 60 yards per game, we’ve seen DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700) for 205 yards in their prior two matchups with a touchdown in each and an average of 24.7 DKFP.
Finally, I think this could be a sneaky spot for Nyheim Hines ($3,500) as a potential salary saver. The Texans have been great against the run but falter with passing-down backs. We’ve seen them average 40 yards per game through the air and Hines has seen at least five targets in five straight weeks. Hines best game did come against this Texans team, scoring 28.3 DKFP while catching nine of his 11 targets for 63 yards and two touchdowns.
Lowest Scoring GamePHI vs. CHI – 41 points
The lowest projected game will be Sunday night between the Eagles and Bears (-5.5). The Bears are the biggest favorites on this slate and have owned this realm all season long. They’re 12-4 against the spread compared to the Eagles at 7-9. When it comes to the over/under, both teams have struggled, with the Bears sporting an 8-8 record while the Eagles had a 6-9-1 record. If the Eagles were to win this one, they’d have to beat a Bears team that was nearly perfect at home (7-1). The road wasn’t exactly a strong point for the Eagles, who ended with an even 4-4.
These teams will be meeting for the first time this season so we don’t have much to go off of here in this game. However, it feels like a tall task for the Eagles, who will have to overcome a stellar Bears defense on the road. In terms of fantasy production, Nick Foles ($5,400) hasn’t been on good on the road, sporting a 15.4 DKFP averaged compared to his 21 DKFP average at home. The Bears, as you’d expect, have been stellar through the air, allowing an average of just 53.6 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, the second lowest in the league. It won’t get easier for Zach Ertz ($6,400) either, as the Bears have held opposing tight ends to 41.6 yards per game, which ranks sixth.
The obvious appeal in this game is receivers for the Bears against one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Eagles allowed 90.2 yards per game to WR1, which as you’d imagine, was the highest in the league. We’ll have to keep an eye on the status of Allen Robinson II ($5,600) for this game, but he’d be set up for a fantastic matchup if healthy. Tarik Cohen ($5,400) is in a great spot regardless of who is active for the Bears. The Eagles allowed the fifth most receiving yards to opposing backs, averaging 51 yards per game with four touchdowns. Against a defense that struggled as much as the Eagles do in this area, Cohen had 37.6 DKFP against the Giants in Week 13, where he went off for 156 receiving yards on 12 receptions.
Worst QB MatchupsQB, OPP, DvP Rank
Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, 2nd
Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, 4th
Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, 6th
Best QB MatchupsQB, OPP, DvP Rank
Chicago Bears, Philadephia Eagles, 25th
Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, 15th
Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, 12th
Worst RB MatchupsRB, OPP, DvP Rank
Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, 1st
Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, 2nd
Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, 6th
Best RB MatchupsRB, OPP, DvP Rank
Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, 21st
Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, 20th
Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, 19th
Worst WR MatchupsWR, OPP, DvP Rank
Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, 3rd
Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, 5th
Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, 6th
Best WR MatchupsWR, OPP, DvP Rank
Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, 30th
Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, 19th
Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, 17th
Worst TE MatchupsTE, OPP, DvP Rank
Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, 6th
Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, 9th
Philadephia Eagles, Chicago Bears, 10th
Best TE MatchupsTE, OPP, DvP Rank
Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, 32nd
Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, 30th
Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, 23rd
Last Week’s Leaders
|Name||Team||Last Week’s OPP||Targets|
Last 3 Weeks Leaders
|Name||Team||Targets Past 3 Weeks||Avg Targets|
Lineup Quick Hits
QB To Build Lineups Around…Andrew Luck, IND vs. HOU ($6,400) – Honestly, you can’t go wrong with either Luck or Watson in this spot. What REALLY makes the difference in lineup construction, at least in my early builds, was if you want to take either Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) or Melvin Gordon ($7,700). Pairing one of those backs with Luck and Hilton really limits you for the rest of your lineup. It’s not TERRIBLE, but Elliott would REALLY need to hit to be a difference maker, in my opinion. Nonetheless, Luck has to be considered the number one QB on the slate, especially with what he’s done against this Houston defense already this season. With fantastic matchups for both his No. 1 receiver and Eric Ebron ($5,200), it’s hard not to love pairing him with one or not both in this contest.
WR To Pair Him With…T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. HOU ($7,800) – Hilton no doubt looked hobbled in their win over the Titans on Sunday night. Case in point was his average performance against a tough defense, limiting him to two catches for 61 yards. However, what really gave it away was his 43-yard gain he had. A healthy Hilton would have easily taken that to the house for a long score, but it was apparent his ankle injury was limiting him from really taking off. Still, this is a Texans defense he’s burned in the past and I’d expect Luck to rely on his go-to receiver in a game of this magnitude. Let’s also not forget that Hilton is getting 17% of the team’s red-zone targets, which is more than double any of the other wide receivers on the team.
The Top RB Will Be…Chris Carson, SEA at DAL ($6,800) – If we’re going by name value, Elliott is by far the play here. What concerns me is the salary and if he can hit value in that matchup against the Seahawks. While I certainly won’t be fading him completely, I’m finding myself in the early goings riding with Carson as my RB anchor followed by Hines/Cohen. Carson has been THE guy for Seattle lately and his production has followed suit. Carson wrapped up the regular season with no less than 22 carries per game and at least 90 rushing yards in all those games, plus four touchdowns. The Cowboys’ run defense suddenly looks beatable, allowing an average of 111 rushing yards over the last three weeks with five rushing touchdowns allowed. Carson sometimes catches out of the backfield, but his target share isn’t enough to rely on. Nonetheless, his price point seems just a bit low for the production he’s putting in lately.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.