Wild Card Weekend was quite the four-game slate that saw a few high-priced players go bust. While scoring was predicted to be relatively low last week, we have the complete opposite for the divisional round. We have another four-game slate that will feature some of the best offenses in the league, which, of course, should lead to plenty of fantasy goodness. Let’s jump right into the mix and as always, you can follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Highest Scoring Game

IND at KC – 56.5 points

The highest projected game, as you’d expect, is the Colts visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs (-5.5) are at home, where games here have averaged 50.4 points on the year. The Chiefs are 7-1 at home while the Colts own a 5-4 record on the road. Both teams have been fantastic against the spread, with the Chiefs entering this game with a 9-6-1 record and the Colts with a 9-7-1 on the year. As I mentioned, points are expected to be scored in this game, as the Chiefs average 35.3 on the year while the Colts come into this game with 26.7.

Andrew Luck ($6,200) really stands out as the play to potentially build around as he’s an $800 savings over Patrick Mahomes ($7,000). Luck enters this game having averaged 22.8 DKFP and 288 passing yards over his past three games with seven touchdowns and three interceptions thrown. We all know how poor this Chiefs defense has been, and it ended the regular season allowing an average of 22.4 DKFP to opposing QBs with 295 passing yards. Only the Eagles allowed more pass completions than the Chiefs this year with the Chiefs allowing a 64 percent completion rate. Marlon Mack ($5,800), who was a difference-maker last week for fantasy lineups, gets a massively better matchup this week and a $200 discount. Mack, against one of the better run defenses in the league last week, rushed for 148 yards and a touchdown for 26.4 DKFP against the Texans.

Of course, we have the Chiefs to consider as well. I don’t think I really have to go in depth about why Mahomes is in play this week. Who we want to pair him with is the better discussion. Travis Kelce ($7,000) over Tyreek Hill ($7,400) makes the most sense from a matchup standpoint. The Colts have been one of the worst defenses in the league against opposing tight ends, allowing an average of 15.8 DKFP. The second worst defense, for reference, was the Chiefs. Kelce has been quiet of late, but I don’t think that’ll affect his ownership. He’s seen at least nine targets in six straight games with four touchdowns in that span. He’s by far the favorite target in this offense, and his matchup against safety Clayton Geathers is a favorable one.

Lowest Scoring Game

LAC at NE – 45.5 points

The lowest projected game belongs to the Chargers at Patriots (-4) in New England. It is quite the interesting matchup as the Patriots remain undefeated at home and the Chargers are 8-1 on the road. It should be noted, however, that the road loss for the Chargers came in L.A. against the Rams. So realistically, when the Chargers have to “travel,” they’re undefeated. Both teams have been strong against the spread with the Patriots owners of a 9-7 record and the Chargers at 10-7. Gillette Stadium has been home to some high-scoring affairs this year, as it’s averaged 49.5 points on the year. One interesting note is that both teams have been dreadful in hitting the over, with the Patriots at 5-11 and the Chargers at 8-9.

Philip Rivers ($5,700) might be one of my favorite tournament plays on this slate. His salary has dropped, although he is the fourth-most expensive quarterback. However, for people who really make decisions based on game logs, Rivers doesn’t look overly attractive, averaging just 8 DKFP and 172 passing yards over the past three weeks. Facing the Ravens twice and Broncos will do that to you. Now, he’ll face a Patriots defense that has been much more generous to opposing QBs, allowing an average of 19.5 DKFP and 260 passing yards. Keenan Allen ($6,400) operating out of the slot also has one of the better matchups this week. On the year, the Pats allow an average of 108 yards to slot receivers with 12 touchdowns scored.

The Patriots’ offense hasn’t been stellar this season. In fact, it’s safe to say it’s been downright inconsistent. With that being said, it won’t be hard to get them in your lineup this week. The most expensive player on the team is Julian Edelman ($6,300), who is at his second-lowest salary of the year. He draws a really tough matchup against CB Desmond King, making him a potential GPP-only play. James White ($4,900) really sticks out as someone to grab in this matchup. In two games without Josh Gordon, White has seen nine targets, in which he caught six for 52 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers have had issues with pass-catching backs all season long, allowing an average of 55 receiving yards per game, the second highest in the league.

DvP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, 6th
Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys, 10th
Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, 11th

Best QB Matchups

QB, OPP, DvP Rank
Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, 31st
New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, 26th
Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, 20th

Worst RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, 4th
Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys, 10th
Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, 13th

Best RB Matchups

RB, OPP, DvP Rank
Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, 28th
New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, 20th
New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, 18th

Worst WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, 3rd
New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, 5th
Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys, 6th

Best WR Matchups

WR, OPP, DvP Rank
Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, 31st
New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, 30th
Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, 24th

Worst TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, 5th
New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, 6th
New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, 14th

Best TE Matchups

TE, OPP, DvP Rank
Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, 31st
Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, 30th
Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams, 25th

Target Report

Last Week’s Leaders

NameTeamLast Week’s OPPTargets
Chris HoganNENYJ11*
T.Y. HiltonINDHOU10
Travis KelceKCOAK9*
Amari CooperDALSEA9
Alshon JefferyPHICHI9
Golden TatePHICHI8
Zach ErtzPHICHI7
Eric EbronINDHOU6
Michael GallupDALSEA6
Keenan AllenLACBAL6

*Week 17 targets

Lineup Quick Hits

QB To Build Lineups Around…

Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) — I mean, why wouldn’t you? This is someone who averages three touchdown passes and 318 passing yards per game and is in the highest projected game of the weekend. With this game expected to be competitive, both teams should be chucking the ball consistently, leaving ample opportunities to be had. Despite Mahomes being a bit better on the road than at home, he still is sporting a massive 24.6 DKFP average at Arrowhead with an average of 304 passing yards.

Receiver To Pair Him With…

Travis Kelce ($7,000) — As I mentioned earlier, Kelce is the way to go in this matchup over Hill. I think the news that Hunter Henry ($2,800) being active for the Chargers would help people pay down at tight end and help bring down the ownership of Kelce. Believe me, people won’t completely forget about Kelce, so his ownership still should be high, but the Henry news helps a bit. Kelce is one of Mahomes’ favorite targets in the red zone, owning a 25 percent target share. To put that in perspective, that ranked as the fourth highest in the league among tight ends. Jared Cook, Zach Ertz ($5,700) and George Kittle were the only ones to have a higher percentage.

The Top RB Will Be…

Alvin Kamara ($7,300) — Kamara is rested for this game after the team sat him for its Week 17 matchup against the Panthers. He’ll draw against an Eagles defense that has been poor all season long against pass-catching backs. The Eagles have allowed an average of 51 yards per game and an 80 percent completion rate. Even with Mark Ingram ($5,200) in the mix, Kamara still averaged 12 carries per game, which bodes well for a team that allowed an average of 25.2 DKFP to opposing backs on the year. With both Ezekiel Elliot ($8,200) and Todd Gurley ($8,000) priced above him, I’m hoping the ownership with Kamara will be a bit lower in arguably a better matchup.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.