Earlier this week, we broke down the NFL odds of the teams to get the most (and least) wins in the regular season. Today, we’ll direct our attention to individual players as opposed to teams. The DK Sportsbook has some early odds on the 2019-2020 NFL MVP. Let’s dive in.
2019-2020 NFL MVP Favorites– Patrick Mahomes: (+500)
– Tom Brady: (+800)
– Drew Brees: (+1000)
– Andrew Luck: (+1000)
– Aaron Rodgers: (+1100)
– Russell Wilson: (+1200)
– Baker Mayfield: (+1400)
– Carson Wentz: (+1400)
– Philip Rivers: (+1600)
– Matt Ryan: (+2200)
Note: All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
As expected, the top-10 candidates are all quarterbacks. Sure, any player can win this award. But over the course of the last 20 seasons, just four have non-QBs have been crowned as the league MVP, all of which were running backs. The most recent occurrence was the 2012-13 season, when Adrian Peterson joined the 2,000 club for rushing yards in a single season, falling eight yards shy of Eric Dickerson’s record. In today’s pass-friendly NFL, it will be very difficult for a running back to have a season worthy of the MVP award.
Last season, Patrick Mahomes showcased his skills and was one of the most electrifying and exciting players to watch every week. His 5,097 passing yards and 50 passing touchdowns combined with a 12-4 Chiefs record were more than enough to make Mahomes the youngest NFL MVP since Dan Marino. He leads the 2019-20 pack with the best odds. But repeats don’t happen often, just five times since 1957 to be exact. And with the possibility of Kansas City’s explosive wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing games due to legal proceedings, Mahomes may have a difficult time joining the likes of Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Joe Montana and Jim Brown as a back-to-back NFL MVP.
The next three are solid options. Tom Brady has held the MVP title on three separate occasions. And with his favorite target, Julian Edelman, getting a contract extension, Brady could break his own record of oldest NFL MVP. Drew Brees has surprisingly never won the award, but he showed last season that he’s still very much in the conversation. The Colts’ Andrew Luck, after taking a season off due to injury, made his own case with 4,593 passing yards and 39 passings TDs. While their playing styles might not be as flashy as Patrick Mahomes’, these QBs can still put up MVP-worthy stats.
Outside of those four, I think it will come down to whose team you believe will have the best season. Baker Mayfield is an interesting pick, after seeing his athleticism last season, and now having Odell Beckham Jr. as his primary weapon. Still, that would mean you’d be betting on a Cleveland Browns player. Tough to swallow, in my opinion. On the flip side, and speaking of tough to swallow, betting on a proven winner like Aaron Rodgers isn’t all that enticing either, and not just because he can’t chug a beer. The Packers have to a tough defensive division and didn’t show much promise last season, and while things could turn around behind a future Hall-of-Famer like Rodgers, I don’t see it being an NFL MVP season for him.
Will we see one of the veterans show the rest of the league how it’s done? Or will we see another young gun blast the stat sheet and prove himself? Either way, we’ll be waiting until the fall.
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Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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