WATCH: Week 11 NFL Price Check
Week 10 went … well, nothing like it was expected to go.
After a tough week, I couldn’t be more ready to just turn the fantasy football page and get going with the next main slate of NFL games, so here is your Week 11 early look.
Hit me up on Twitter with comments or questions @julianedlow.
Tom Brady ($7,400) — Brady is priced up as the most expensive QB on the slate by $600, and rightfully so, as the Patriots star is the safest option by far. He’ll go up against a middle-of-the-pack Raiders defense Sunday in Mexico City, but considering Jay Cutler recently shredded Oakland for 27 DraftKings fantasy points, it’s tough not to like Brady’s outlook here. If you can afford him, he has a very high floor and ceiling for this game.
Drew Brees ($6,800) — Priced right below Brady is Brees, and I believe it’s officially time to give up on him as an elite fantasy QB — which probably means he’s in line for a big week. But it has been the same story with Brees all season — the Saints rely on their tremendous running back duo and much-improved defense to get them through games. Brees has posted only one game of 20-plus DKFP since Week 3, so we need to lower expectations from him, even when he’s at home in the Superdome, as he’ll be Sunday against the Redskins.
Blake Bortles ($5,200) — It’s a tough week for value at QB, but if I had to choose early on in the week, Bortles has caught my eye. The Jaguars QB has scored 16-plus DKFP in his last three games and draws a Sunday matchup against the Browns, who rank 26th against the position.
Other Value Options — Jay Cutler ($5,400), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,300)
Todd Gurley ($8,400) — I said last week that it might be time to lay off Gurley, as he was going up against the Texans’ top-ranked defense in terms of DKFP allowed to RBs. He proved me wrong and went for nearly 20 fantasy points. This week, we’re in another similar spot, as Gurley’s Rams draw the Vikings — who ranked second against RBs. With Gurley’s price still so high, a bad matchup eventually will hamper him, so I’m looking elsewhere.
Kareem Hunt ($8,000) — After his explosive start to the season, Hunt hasn’t given the Chiefs a 3x-value game since Week 3. Floating right around 10 DKFP the last two games, he’s in a breakout spot in Week 11 against the Giants’ 21st-ranked defense vs. RBs.
We also can’t have an article at this point in the season without featuring Mark Ingram ($8,100) and Alvin Kamara ($7,500) at RB. These guys have spli work, with both dominating since the Saints’ Week 5 bye. They’re the reason Brees isn’t in play for me, and you can even roster these guys together against an average Redskins defense.
Austin Ekeler ($4,500) — Ekeler exploded Sunday for the Chargers, rushing 10 times for 42 yards and catching all five of his targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars for 27.9 DKFP. It really was telling how much work he stole from Melvin Gordon ($7,600) — although Gordon out-snapped Ekeler 47-23, he out-touched him just 21-15. Look for Ekeler’s role within the Chargers’ offense to grow, not to mention this week’s matchup will be against a Bills team that ranks 31st against RBs after a historically bad day against the Saints.
Other Value Options — Orleans Darkwa ($4,800), Kenyan Drake ($4,800), James White ($4,700), Rex Burkhead ($3,600)
Michael Thomas ($7,400) — It’s not a great-looking week at WR. You’ll notice a lot of studs are off this slate, and the ones that are on it seem to be in poor matchups. Once again, Brees doesn’t interest me much, but his top weapons do. Thomas hasn’t reached the end zone since Week 4, but he has seen 40 targets his way over the last four weeks. That has resulted in 31 catches for 341 yards, which makes for really consistent production. Eventually, Thomas will find his way back into the end zone — perhaps this week at home against the Redskins. Defenses will have to key in on New Orleans’ RBs more at some point, leaving Thomas room to roam.
Adam Thielen ($7,200) — Not to take credit away from Thielen, who posted an 8-166-1 line against the same Redskins defense that Thomas will face this week, but the fact that the Vikings star is the third-most expensive WR on this slate can be telling. Thielen also has a really difficult matchup against the Rams, which has me expecting a step backward this week. However, his 47 targets over the last four games are impossible to ignore. A.J. Green ($7,000) also is priced down with the Bengals’ matchup against the Broncos, but that defense has been exposed over the last few weeks and shouldn’t scare anyone away at this point.
Marqise Lee ($5,500) — Here’s your value stack with Bortles. It’s officially time to start talking about Lee, who’s come to life over Jacksonville’s last four games. During that span, he has hauled in 23 of 39 targets (leaving room for improvement) for 285 yards and two touchdowns. That’s an average of 16.8 DKFP entering a prime matchup against the Browns.
Other Value Options — Davante Adams ($5,300), Jamison Crowder ($4,300), Brandon LaFell ($3,900), Dontrelle Inman ($3,200)
Travis Kelce ($7,300) — Kelce is priced slightly ahead of Rob Gronkowski ($7,200) this week, but with good reason. I like the spot for Gronk against Oakland, but it’s even better for Kelce and the Chiefs going up against the league’s worst defense vs. TEs in the Giants. With nearly 50 DKFP combined over his last two games, Kelce is in position to feast in Week 11.
Tyler Kroft ($2,900) — Just ahead of the Giants, you’ll find the Broncos rank 31st vs. TEs. That leaves Kroft in a nice spot despite his down game in Week 10, and he still saw plenty of volume with six targets, although he only caught one. Prior to that, Kroft scored 9.6 or more DKFP in three consecutive games for the Bengals.
Other Value Options — Martellus Bennett ($2,800), Marcedes Lewis ($2,700)
Jaguars ($4,000) — The Jags are super priced up, but at this point, you simply have to tip your cap at just how good this defense has been. Averaging 13.8 DKFP with huge touchdown upside (five on the season) and an insane 35 sacks, they’re in an awesome spot against the Browns.
Rams ($2,400) — It’s impossible to ignore this value spot for the Rams, who were priced up at $3,600 last week. Sure, the Vikings are good, but I wouldn’t consider them an elite offense, so dropping the price tag so low here doesn’t make sense to me. This has been a dominant defense as well, averaging 12.4 DKFP and scoring 11-plus DKFP in four consecutive games. Keep in mind that the Rams haven’t allowed an opponent to score over 17 points since Week 4.
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