The Cowboys will host the Vikings in Dallas on SNF, with the home team favored by a field goal and the total set at 48 points. There’s some decent fantasy upside in this game, so let’s take a look at the plays.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN SPOTLIGHT
Neither QB is in a great spot in this game, but Dak Prescott ($10,600) is the far more consistent play. As a home favorite, he’s where I’d spend up if you’re going to play a QB. Dak’s only busted once this season, back in a Week 4 road loss to the Saints. Every other game he’s played in he’s scored 18 or more DKFP, which I’d consider his floor here. Keep in mind, Minnesota does rank seventh in DKFP allowed to QB, though.
Despite limiting QBs this season, Minnesota’s given up the seventh-most DKFP to WR. Amari Cooper ($10,000) is battling ankle and knee injuries, but it’s tough to look past his upside. Cooper’s managed 18 DKFP in consecutive games on just 12 total targets, which is pretty low for him. The Vikings have a strong run defense, and have really struggled in the secondary this season. The Dallas WRs have the best matchup on the field.
Editor’s Note: Cooper will be active tonight.
That makes Michael Gallup ($7,600) and Randall Cobb ($5,600) potential plays as well. Gallup is the only play that brings similar upside to Cooper, it’s just much more rare that he actually unlocks it. We saw Gallup get off to a hot start this season, though, and he’s worth 75% the salary of Cooper. Cobb hasn’t scored a touchdown or double-digit DKFP since Week 1, and would need to break those trends to be worth his salary.
Jason Witten ($6,000) is still getting the targets at TE, bringing in 8-of-9 last week for 58 yards. He’s a similar play to Cobb, but the extra targets give him more upside. Blake Jarwin ($3,600) has only seen one target in consecutive games, but he’s turned both into touchdowns. That’s the only thing limiting extra upside for Witten.
Tavon Austin ($2,400) is a punt play worth considering in tournaments only. He’s always a candidate to rip off a long score, but could easily wind up giving you a goose egg.
Ezekiel Elliott ($10,800) is as safe as it gets, even with the Vikings being a top-10 team against RBs. He’s carried 22 or more times for at least 105 yards in three straight games. Lock him in for any cash lineup in this slate and consider him a contrarian fade in tournaments.
Brett Maher ($4,000) could be a secret weapon on this slate. People find it boring to play kickers, but Maher has scored at least 14 DKFP in three straight outings. This sets up as another strong spot as the home favorite.
Cowboys D/ST ($3,400) has also been hot lately, scoring 33 total DKFP in the last two games combined. We can continue to trust them here at home.
Kirk Cousins ($10,400) has been terrible in his career against winning teams, particularly on the road. The Cowboys rank fourth in DKFP allowed to QBs, so pretty much everything is setting up against him in this spot.
That makes Cousins’ wide outs tough to trust as well, even with Adam Thielen (hamstring) out. Stefon Diggs ($9,400) should see more targets, in theory, but he caught just 1-of-5 targets last week for four yards. That came after three straight games of at least seven grabs for 140 yards, though, so the upside is there if you want to chase him in GPPs.
Olabisi Johnson ($4,600) and Laquon Treadwell ($2,800) are also cheap tournament targets. If you do go contrarian and target the Minnesota passing game, it might be worth saving salary off Diggs and targeting one of these guys given the risk.
Kyle Rudolph ($4,800) and Irv Smith Jr. ($4,200) are more favorable targets than the cheap WRs, since Dallas struggles against the TE position. The Cowboys rank just 29th in DKFP allowed to TE, and tend to funnel targets to the middle of the field. Both have been playing well lately, so you can target whoever fits best in your roster construction.
Dalvin Cook ($11,600) is where I want to sink my salary into the Vikings. He’s just so much more trustworthy than Cousins, and the obvious key to Minnesota winning this game. The Cowboys rank just 25th in DKFP allowed to RB, and Cook’s gotten 25 or more touches in three straight games. The Vikings will try and ride their ground game to keep this one competitive, which means we could see Alex Mattison ($2,600) and Ameer Abdullah ($1,800) sprinkled in.
Dan Bailey ($3,800) is worth considering, but I’d rather target the kicking game on the Dallas side. Same goes for the Vikings D/ST ($3,200).
Final Score: Cowboys 27, Vikings 17
Cousins just can’t be trusted in a big road game, especially in primetime. The Cowboys generally come out and play well in home primetime games, which are both trends I think will hold in this game. I’d like to captain either of the top RB plays — Elliott ($16,200 CP) and Cook ($17,400 CP) — and then let the value plays fall into place.
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