The Colts will travel to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs (-530) on Sunday Night Football, in what projects as quite the shootout. The Chiefs are 11-point favorites in this one, with the game total set at 56, so there should be plenty of fantasy production.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes ($12,800) is in an obvious bounce-back spot here, following a floor game in Detroit. Mahomes failed to score a touchdown, but still managed 21 DKFP. He should easily top 300 passing yards again at home, and a couple of touchdowns will put him back at 30-plus DKFP. He’s as consistent as they come.

Travis Kelce ($10,000) is nearly as consistent himself, with seven receptions in each of the last three games (with Tyreek Hill out). He’s been targeted at least eight times in each of those games, going for 85 or more yards. With only one trip to the end zone this season, Kelce could be due here, as the Colts rank 27th in DKFP allowed to TE.

Sammy Watkins ($8,800) is carrying a questionable tag into this one, but is expected to play through shoulder and hamstring injuries, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The issue here is just how bad Watkins has been since he exploded for nearly 50 DKFP in Week 1. He’s averaging less than 10 DKFP per game in the three outings since, all with Hill sidelined. He’s just too overpriced from what he did in Week 1 to trust.

Editor’s Note: Watkins will be active for tonight’s game.

Demarcus Robinson ($7,200) and Mecole Hardman ($6,200) make for cheaper options, and both have been producing the last few weeks. Neither had great games in Detroit, but Hardman averaged over 17 DKFP in Weeks 2 and 3, while Robinson’s 38 DKFP outburst in Week 2 had him averaging over 25 DKFP in that same span. I’d play either of these two WR in a lineup with Mahomes and Kelce to save some salary off Watkins.

The Chiefs’ backfield is not a tricky spot to target this week, even with Indy ranking 25th against the position. Damien Williams ($7,200) is listed as questionable, but practiced in full this week, and Andy Reid says Williams should play in this game.

Editor’s Note: Williams will be active for tonight’s game.

That means three health RBs in the backfield once you factor in LeSean McCoy ($7,400) and Darrel Williams ($6,400). Both are coming off a pair of really strong games, but how will Damien factor into the mix? I’d consider all three RBs to be tournament plays, but we can’t yet trust where the touches will go.


Indianapolis Colts

Jacoby Brissett ($8,400) is pretty cheap for a QB coming off consecutive 23-DKFP games. The Chiefs rank 21st in DKFP allowed to QB, and the game script sets up perfectly here, with the Colts as 11-point dogs. Brissett should be in a great spot to keep slinging, and you can afford him pretty easily.

T.Y Hilton ($8,000) and Marlon Mack ($6,800) are two huge pieces of this game, and are both questionable. It sounds like Hilton has a good shot to play, while Mack is a legit game-time decision. You’ll need to follow the news here, but Hilton could be in a spot to go off. Brissett will need to air it out, which favors T.Y. as long he’s healthy. Rostering him with his QB means fading Mahomes or Kelce though, who are both much safer plays.

Editor’s Note: Hilton and Mack will be active for tonight’s game.

Nyheim Hines ($6,600) would become a fantastic play if Mack were to sit out. Even with Mack on the field in Week 4 against Oakland, Hines scored 10.5 DKFP, thanks to six receptions for 39 yards. If he got some of Mack’s carries, Hines would have 20-DKFP upside.

In Mack’s absence, Jordan Wilkins ($3,000) would also suddenly become a nice value play. However, he’s an easy fade if Mack’s in.

Outside of Hilton, the TEs are the next highest priced pass-catchers in the Colts’ offense. Eric Ebron ($5,000) and Jack Doyle ($4,800) have both been producing lately, thanks to their ability to find the end zone. The Chiefs rank just 26th in DKFP allowed to TE, so both should be considered at their cheap price tags.

Zach Pascal ($4,200) and Chester Rodgers ($3,600) are the other WR plays to consider, and although their production was limited early in the season, there’s upside in this matchup. Paris Campbell (abdomen) has been ruled out, and both Pascal and Rodgers are coming off strong games, playing from behind against Oakland.

Pascal’s brought in 6-of-10 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown in the last two games, and Rodgers went for 3-48-1 last week. The game script sets up perfectly for Brissett to be looking for them downfield, while the attention is on Hilton.


THE OUTCOME

The Chiefs aren’t perfect, so they’ll give up some points in this one, but Mahomes will be able to score enough in this bounce-back situation at home in primetime to get his team a comfortable win. Much like Russell Wilson on TNF agains the Rams, you won’t want to fade Patrick Mahomes CP ($19,200) in your Captain spot. Make the rest work, but there’s 60 DKFP upside here with the 1.5x boost.
Final Score: Kansas City 38, Indianapolis 24


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