The Conference Championship series has arrived, pitting the final four teams left standing in the NFL. On the line is a trip to the Super Bowl in Atlanta at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Feb. 3. Before we reach the mecca of all football games, we have two games to analyze and some of the betting stats these games carry. Let’s dive into that information and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans SaintsPoint Spread: Saints (-3.5)
Money Line: Saints -195
Once upon a time, or Week 9 to be exact, these two teams met for the first time this season and combined for 80 total points in a 45-35 win for the Saints. That game had opened with a -1.5 point spread for the Saints with an over/under of 59.5. Let’s take a look at some of the betting trends these teams made for themselves throughout the 2018 season and the playoffs.
Los Angeles RamsATS: 8-7-2
The Rams enter this game as underdogs for the first time this season. So, with no data to look at how this team has performed in these scenarios, we can take a look at the road numbers. The Rams would go on to have a 6-2 record with one of those losses coming against the Saints. Of those games, the Rams would go on to sport a 4-4 record ATS and one of the worst over/under records at 2-6 during the regular season. Only two other teams had the same over/under record which includes the Saints and Bills.
New Orleans SaintsATS: 10-7
The Saints have been favorites 14 times this season and have successfully covered the spread in seven of those games by an average margin of 2.8 points. However, as a favorite at home, the Saints had a 3-5 record against the spread, covering only 37 percent of the time. When it comes to the over/under, the Saints have not performed well in this area. With just a 5-9 record when favored, New Orleans hit the under 64.3% of the time.
-Neither team has lost a game when leading at halftime this season.
-Games at Mercedes-Benz Superdome averaged 56.9 points in 2018.
-Saints currently +180 odds to win Super Bowl LIII.
-Rams have the lowest odds at +375.
New England Patriots at Kansas City ChiefsPoint Spread: Chiefs (-3)
Money Line: Chiefs -162
These two teams will do battle once again after an epic Week 6 battle that saw the Patriots win 43-40. That game featured a -3.5 spread favoring the Patriots with an over/under of 59.5. It was one of the nine wins the Patriots would have at home and just the third road loss for the Chiefs. However, if the Patriots were to upset the Chiefs in this game, New England will have to overcome a poor 3-5 road record against a nearly perfect 8-1 home record for the Chiefs. The last time the Patriots won a playoff game as underdogs was the 2007 AFC Divisional Round against the Chargers, which resulted in a 24-21 win.
New England PatriotsATS: 10-7
Like the Rams, the Patriots were never underdogs at any point this season. However, the team’s road performances left plenty to be desired. Just like their overall road record, the Pats had just a 3-5 record against the spread and in the over/under when away from Gillette Stadium. When the Patriots lost on the road, it was by an average margin of 11.8 points. In the three games the Patriots won, the average margin of victory was 13.3.
Kansas City ChiefsATS: 10-6-1
Aside from having one of the best offenses in the league, the Chiefs have a huge advantage at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are 5-4 ATS when favored at home, which was the third-best record in the league. The over/under as home favorites was a different story, as they managed just a 3-5-1 record. When the Chiefs won at home, they did it decisively with an average winning margin of 16.7. The only home loss was decided by one point, which came against the Chargers.
-Games at Arrowhead Stadium averaged 49.7 points per game in 2018.
-When leading at halftime, both teams sport a 91.7 percent winning percentage this season.
-In the playoffs, Tom Brady sports a 19-18-1 record ATS.
Odds and lines subject to change. See website for actual odds.
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