It’s a very unique spot on Thursday Night Football, as the Chiefs have lost two in a row and travel to Denver on a short week to face a Broncos team that’s won two in a row. However, the public has backed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and the pros have been backing the Broncos, betting the division ‘dog from +4.5 down to +3.
TNF best bets went 3-2 last week and are 16-11 on the season. Let’s took at some betting angles to consider.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
DENVER BRONCOS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8:20 P.M. ET)
Total Sacks: Von Miller OVER 0.5 (+115)
Denver’s defense got off to a really slow start, particularly with the defensive line absent in the sack department. That’s changed over the past few weeks, as the Broncos’ D-line has started to show up. That includes 2.5 sacks for Miller over the past three games combined.
Mahomes has been sacked eight times through six games this season, but five of them have come during this two-game skid, which Mahomes has been playing through an ankle injury during. His lack of mobility brings Denver’s potential for sacks up, and Miller’s the guy to make the play in a primetime game. If he shares a sack for 0.5 like he did the most recent time he played KC, you get the push here. But the plus-money on a solo sack is too intriguing.
Total Fantasy Points Scored: Phillip Lindsay OVER 18.5 (-106)
Lindsay’s in a spectacular spot on this slate and is my favorite target in Showdown contests. He easily has topped this number in two of his past four games and generally has performed well when the matchup dictates.
Marlon Mack and Carlos Hyde both destroyed the Chiefs on the ground in their two losses, which draws up the game plan for the Broncos. Royce Freeman will mix in, but Lindsay’s the receiving back, which will help him rack up some extra DKFP. Lindsay’s yardage prop is set at 90.5, so if he floats around that number, a few catches and a TD get you the over.
Home Team Points: DEN U 23.5 (-107)
The Broncos have topped 23 points once in six games this season — 24 in a loss to the Jaguars. I understand the Chiefs have a soft defense, but this is still a Joe Flacco-led offense for Denver. The Colts laid out the game script to beat this team, running the ball in a 19-13 victory at KC.
The Broncos are much stronger running the ball than throwing it, which should play into trying to run some clock and win the time of possession battle. I think you can look at the under on either team total, but the far less explosive offense makes more sense, regardless of who you think wins.
Game Total: UNDER 49.5 (-110)
My favorite play for the game is just the under. Without digging into any numbers, we have a struggling Chiefs offense that has to go on the road on a short week, and the QB is battling an ankle injury. They’re facing a strong defense in the division that prefers to run the ball on offense. Unless the Chiefs bounce back in a big way and light up the scoreboard, there are more plausible game scripts that have this game going under than over.
When we do look at the numbers, the Chiefs are averaging just 18.5 PPG during this losing streak, and those came at home against weaker defenses. The Broncos have held opponents to 13 total points over their two-game win streak and scored only 36 total points in the process. Their past two games totaled 49 points combined … so give me this one to stay under.
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