As I’m writing this, we’re about to reach two weeks without any live (major) sports to bet on. While it’s been tough, the futures markets on DraftKings Sportsbook have given us an outlet to continue to handicap sports and get in some bets.
While we’re still likely a few months out from any live sporting events, the NFL Draft will be held beginning on April 23, so we’re just about a month out from actually being able to sweat out some action and cash some tickets.
DKSB has some awesome NFL Draft Props posted, and there’s some decent value in betting this far out, before too much money comes in on the most likely outcomes. As things change, hopefully I’ll be able to update with a couple more articles as the draft approaches, and we can make some money sweating out the picks.
Here are the current props that jump out to me the most (as of March 24):
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
2020 Draft — Second Defensive Player Drafted: Jeffrey Okudah (-121)Chase Young is obviously going to be the first defensive player off the board, which you can bet on if you want to lay -2000. Odds are he’ll be the No. 2 overall pick to Washington, but maybe a trade up the board to get a QB moves Young’s position around. That part doesn’t really matter either way, because Okudah will be the next defensive target for almost any team. Isaiah Simons (+200) is really the only other consideration here, but his draft prop to bet where he’ll be selected is set at 6.5. Okudah’s prop is set at 4.5, and he plays a position (CB) that’s considered more valuable in today’s NFL. Okudah can be found between 3-7 in most mock drafts, while Simons is around 4-9. You’ll be hard pressed to find a mock that puts Simons before Okudah.
2020 Draft — Player Draft Position: A.J. Epenesa U34.5 (-125)Epenesa is an extremely talented edge rusher from Iowa. He was once considered a potential top 10 pick, but some tests at the combine have him falling on draft boards. The main reasons there’s concern here was Epenesa’s 5.04 40-yard-dash time. It certainly isn’t going to help his draft profile, but I don’t think it’ll plummet him to No. 35 overall or worse. Epenesa likely goes somewhere in the second half of the first round, which is where most mocks have him placed. I think we’re getting a good price here for a player that someone’s going to use a first-round pick on because of his on-field dominance. Getting the cushion of cashing a ticket if he somehow falls to the first couple of picks in the second round is a nice luxury.
2020 Draft — Player Draft Position: Jalen Hurts O60.5 (-110)Hurts is obviously a huge name from all of his college accomplishments at Alabama and Oklahoma, but he’s going to “slide” in this draft. It’s looking like we’re going to get four QBs in the first round, and then we could wait a while. Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm both have their draft position props set at 45.5, so it’s pretty likely Hurts will be the seventh QB off the board. The bottom line here is that DK Sportsbook is offering a fantastic price on Hurts, overrating his draft position. Other markets have Hurts’ draft position set 15 or more picks higher, giving good value here. It’s looking like we can start to expect to see Hurts’ name called around the mid-third round. Someone could reach on him in the last few picks of the second round and we would still cash this ticket. Fromm and Eason will be the names to watch in round two.
First Pick By Position — 1st WR: Jerry Jeudy (-110)This one’s going to be tight, as WRs should start flying off the board once we get outside of the top 10. Perhaps Jeudy, or another WR, sneaks into the top 10, but it’ll likely come down to when the Jets, Raiders and Broncos are on the clock. CeeDee Lamb (+130) and Alabama teammate Henry Ruggs (+400) are the top competition here. If you look at a mock draft, it may seems like the plus-money plays are better value. You could see a handful of mocks that put Jeudy at No. 11, followed by Lamb at No. 12 and Ruggs at No. 15. But this is just the stretch of the draft where teams will be looking to target this position. Even though the first two WRs selected might be separated by just a pick, I think Jeudy is the player that teams with WR needs will target first.
First Pick By Position — 1st TE: Cole Kmet (-143)This draft is loaded with WRs, with the odds pointing to over 5.5 going in the first round. On the flip side, this is an awful TE draft. DK Sportsbook has under 0.5 TE selected in the first round at a whopping -1667. So, yeah, we aren’t going to see any TE go until the late second round, maybe even the third. Kmet clearly stands out as the TE prospect the first team with a positional need will target. DK Sportsbook has Kmet’s draft position prop at 44.5 (which is probably an over play) and no other TE even on the board. Anthony Amico actually had this play in his article last week (with the juice at -110), but I wanted to highlight it again. Look how much it’s moved already in just a week while the draft is still a month away. This has the feel of a play that could be -250 or steeper by draft night, so we really want to get this play in now.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.