This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays on DraftKings. I’m going to be focusing on high upside, low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can really pay off big for you in a large field tournament.
RUNNING BACK TO CONSIDER
StacksAaron Rodgers ($6,500) – Davante Adams ($7,800) – Travis Homer ($5,100)
While Aaron Rodgers struggled at times this season, he still managed to flash that familiar slate-breaking upside in spots. Rodgers averaged 3.3 DKFP more per game at home this year and typically did his best work against teams with weak secondaries or non-existent pass rushes. Seattle comes into this game ranked just 30th in the entire league in adjusted sack rate and seems destined to have trouble getting pressure on Rodgers, who tore apart teams like Detroit and Oakland this year who ranked similarly in this stat. On the receiving end, Rodgers relied heavily on Davante Adams at the end of the year, as he saw an insane 42 targets over the Packers’ last three games. With multiple big name receivers on this slate and the Packers’ RBs also drawing attention, Adams isn’t likely to be heavy chalk here and could be a superb stack with his QB against a Seattle secondary who ceded seven 100+ yard receiving games to an opposing WR this year. On the flip-side, the Seahawks have continued to call Travis Homer’s number, especially in passing situations, as the rookie has averaged 13 touches and 4.5 targets per game since Week 16. Green Bay has ceded the 10th most receptions to opposing RBs this year, and Seattle may need to rely on Homer this week if Rodgers and Adams have their way with their middling secondary.
QuarterbackRussell Wilson ($6,600)
I mentioned the potential for the Green Bay offense above, but targeting Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ receivers this week makes just as much sense. While Rodgers and Adams form a dynamic duo and a target share that is hard to match with any other QB/WR duo, Wilson’s upside remains lethal on his own, and he now has multiple elite targets in DK Metcalf ($6,800) and Tyler Lockett ($6,600). In addition, Wilson carries more rushing upside, as he averaged 21 yards on the ground per game this season. Wilson’s upside is also buoyed by the fact the top two Seahawks RBs have now been placed on IR, and even against Green Bay’s vulnerable defense, the Seahawks seem less likely to be able to control the game completely with either 33-year-old Marshawn Lynch ($4,800) or former special teamer Homer. With his ownership likely to be suppressed due to both Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and Lamar Jackson’s ($8,400) presence on this slate, Wilson looks poised to be a potentially strong pivot at QB in large GPPs.
Just Missed: I already wrote up Aaron Rodgers ($6,500) above, but both he and Wilson look like great potentially lower-owned QB targets at under $7,000. The Green Bay and Seattle defenses both have their flaws, and the two veterans could easily turn this matchup into a game of “whoever has the ball last wins” this week.
Running BackDerrick Henry ($8,200)
Despite reeling off his sixth game in seven starts with at least 100 rushing yards and a TD last week, the sentiment on Henry remains somewhat low as DFS players fear the matchup with 9.5-point home favorite Baltimore. The Ravens’ rush defense may be the most vulnerable part of their team, though, as they posted the 12th worst yards allowed per carry this season and were generally insulated by an offense that often had their opponent playing from behind. Henry and the Titans have been great at slowing down games against more highly touted offenses, with no better example coming against the Chiefs in Week 10, where Henry was able to take 25 touches and accumulate 191 yards. RBs with low passing game usage are always risky—especially when their team is 9.5-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook—but at suppressed ownership, and with a ceiling capable of making him a must play on a four-game slate, Henry remains an elite GPP target this week.
Just Missed: Raheem Mostert ($5,800) has a tougher matchup against the Vikings but is now the clear lead back on the 49ers, who enter the week as 7-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. Mostert could easily be the must-own RB this week as the potential for a 49erx’ blowout win is relatively high.
Wide ReceiverEmmanuel Sanders ($5,400)
The Vikings’ secondary has been an exploitable matchup for most opposing WRs this season and it could lead to a big game from at least one of the 49ers’ wideouts. With Deebo Samuel ($5,200) and George Kittle ($6,200) both likely to draw fairly significant ownership, Sanders may be the player to pivot to in large GPPs this week. The former Bronco comes into this game having scored fewer than 10.0 DKFP in three straight games, but does have a very exploitable matchup, and despite being out-produced by his rookie teammate the last few games, Sanders has been playing on nearly every snap for San Francisco since being traded there. Minnesota gave up the seventh-most DKFP to opposing WRs this year and ceded only eight rushing TDs this year, the second lowest total in the league. The 49ers, who have an implied team total hovering around 25.5 this week, should be looking to take advantage of Sanders’ matchup, giving him a healthy shot at posting big fantasy totals this week.
Just Missed: The Texans’ secondary posted the third-worst yards per play in the entire league this season. Mecole Hardman ($4,100) posted an insane 20.8 yards per reception this year, should see extremely low ownership, and could easily bust out for a long TD in this matchup.
Tight EndJimmy Graham ($3,200)
Graham sets up as a potentially solid value and pure matchup based play against one of the weaker LB coverage units in the league. Seattle allowed the second-most DKFP to opposing TEs this season and second-most total yards to the position. Despite Graham being a mostly ineffective fantasy producer for the second-half the season—his last TD came in Week 7—he remains a significant part of a Green Bay offense that does not feature a dominant number two receiver. Despite a bit of a limited snap count, Graham was still second in red zone targets this year for the Packers and should be motivated here against his former team. While fading the top two options at TE is a risky play this week, the matchup here suggests Graham should have an opportunity for some big plays, and if he finds the end zone, his price-per-dollar return should be more than enough to have him pay off for you in DFS.
Just Missed: Texans TE Darren Fells ($3,500) has a similar kind of matchup and vibe about him this week as he takes on the Chiefs, who allowed the second-most receptions to the TE position this year. Fells was second in red zone targets for Houston and scored seven TDs, giving him a solid ceiling.
DSTSan Francisco 49ers ($3,000)
The 49ers’ DST comes in a little bit under the radar this week as the team has allowed 29.4 points per game over their final five games of the year. However, the rest week has been critical for San Francisco as they look almost certain to get back Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander and Jaquiski Tartt for this week’s game. It’s not shock that the 49ers’ worst defensive performances came late in the season with three key players out, and for DFS purposes, these additions should be viewed as great news, especially when you factor in San Francisco’s home splits. The 49ers’ DST showed far better production at home this season, averaging 12.1 DKFP at home–vs. 8.1 on the road–while recording 10 more sacks and nine more turnovers in home games. When you factor in the Vikings’ struggles on the road, particularly outdoors where they’re just 4-8-1 over the last two seasons, and the 49ers excellent pass rush—ranking second in adjusted sack-rate on the season—the upside here for the 49ers’ DST looks awfully hard to ignore in GPPs, especially at just 3k in price.
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