This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays on DraftKings. I’m going to be focusing on high upside, low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can really pay off big for you in a large field tournament.For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app and follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.
TOP OPTION TO CONSIDER
Set your lineups here: NFL $3M Millionaire [$1M to 1st + $25K Game Stack Bonus]
StacksJimmy Garoppolo ($5,200)—Aaron Jones ($6,700)—George Kittle ($5,800)—Kendrick Bourne ($4,200)
With Patrick Mahomes ($7,700) and his top targets likely to draw a ton of ownership this week, heading to the 49ers-Packers game for a game stack should give you the opportunity to gain some significant leverage in the large field GPPs on DraftKings. While the 49ers’ rush defense was dominant against the Vikings, they’ve been gashed in spots this year and gave up 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season. Aaron Jones has easily been the Packers’ most consistent offensive player this year when he’s been given the ball, and lately he’s moved into more of a work horse role for Green Bay, playing on over 80% of the offensive snaps in their last two games. That change is significant given the matchup here, and with the Packers heading into this week as heavy road underdogs, Jones’ ownership isn’t likely to be more than either of the lead backs from TEN/KC. On the flip side, Jimmy Garoppolo heads into this week as a low sentiment play given the fact he’s failed to exceed 13 DKFP in four starts now. However, Garoppolo has shown that, when needed, big fantasy games are possible as he posted 31 or more DKFP three times during the regular season. With many DFS players viewing this game as a possible blowout for San Francisco, stacking “Jimmy G” with his most reliable target in Kittle and the underappreciated and likely low-owned Kendrick Bourne—six TDs on just 49 targets this year—is a solid way to go about avoiding the chalky stacks this week while also still giving yourself room to choose which studs from the AFC game you want to use in your lineups.
QuarterbackRyan Tannehill ($5,500)
With everyone finally lining up to play Derrick Henry ($8,700), who projects as one of the top-owned plays on this two-game slate, it’s possible the move this week may be to pivot to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans’ passing game. Tannehill has shown that he’s not afraid to run the ball either, as he rushed for four TDs in the regular season, which tied him for fourth among all QBs despite only starting 11 games. While Henry has been nearly automatic in the red zone, Tannehill’s rushing ability does bring in the possibility that he ends up accounting for all the Titans’ scoring, especially in a game where the Chiefs’ offense is likely to force him into throwing the ball quite a bit more than the 14.5 attempts he averaged in Tennessee’s first two playoff games. If you’re keen on fading the high-profile Henry in DraftKings’ big GPPs this week, then starting lineups with Tannehill and one of his top receiving targets makes quite a bit of sense from a game theory perspective.
Running BackRaheem Mostert ($4,300)
The 49ers went with a bit of a rug pull last week as they ended up giving Tevin Coleman ($5,700), who hadn’t seen more than six touches in a game since Week 12, 22 carries. The move wasn’t just a coaches decision, however, as it was precipitated in large part due to Raheem Mostert dealing with an illness and accompanying calf cramps in-game. From early reports, Mostert seems likely to be at full strength this week, and if so, it’s possible the explosive back–who had led the 49ers in red zone touches from Week 12 onwards and averaged 5.6 yards per carry this year—finds himself back in the lead role. With recency biases likely pumping up Coleman’s ownership this week, Mostert sets up as a potentially huge pivot play in GPPs, especially given the upside that has come with being Kyle Shanahan’s preferred RB of choice in the red zone this season.
Wide ReceiverMecole Hardman ($3,800)
Hardman didn’t pay off with any long catches against the Texans, but the good news is that his failure from a fantasy perspective may make more DFS players hesitant to look his way in the Conference Finals. The Chiefs’ rookie still saw four targets last week, and the two non-catches were both long attempts downfield. Even on a limited snap count, Hardman still managed to outpace Sammy Watkins ($4,600) in targets despite playing 45 less snaps than Watkins last week. Like the Texans last week, Tennessee is poor at limiting big plays downfield and allowed the ninth-most explosive plays against during the regular season. With the Titans’ top two corners of Adoree’ Jackson and Logan Ryan having their hands full with shadowing Hill, Kelce and Watkins, Hardman could easily spring loose here for multiple big plays as the Chiefs look to take advantage of a thin Tennessee secondary.
Just Missed: If the Packers are going to win this week, someone will likely have to step up as a secondary target for Aaron Rodgers and with Allen Lazard ($4,400) banged-up, Geronimo Allison ($3,700) could easily be that man. He caught three or more passes six times in 2019 and has more history with Rodgers than most of Green Bays other WRs.
Tight EndJonnu Smith ($3,400)
Both George Kittle ($5,800)—see above—and Travis Kelce ($7,100) are likely to be extremely popular targets on a two-game slate, and getting exposure to one, in some fashion, is probably a good idea. However, while the chalk seems likely to pay off at TE, it’s worth noting that the Titans’ Jonnu Smith has shown he’s more than capable of breaking out for a big game when the conditions are right. Smith has elite speed for his position, posting a 4.62 40-time at his combine, and was second on the Titans in red zone targets this season—despite playing behind Delanie Walker for a third of the season. Since Week 14, Smith and QB Ryan Tannehill have combined for three TDs and with Tennessee going up against the high-powered Chiefs offense this week, there’s a high possibility that Smith may end up getting multiple red zone looks in this game, especially if Tennessee is down late. You’ll likely need a long TD or a multiple TD game here from Smith for him to overcome the elite names at his position, but at what should be very depressed ownership, he provides good leverage in GPPs.
DSTGreen Bay Packers ($2,400)
The Packers’ defense deserves some credit for how they’ve ended the season, as they’ve allowed just an average of 15.6 points against in their last six games. Za’Darius Smith has been a one-man wrecking crew of late for Green Bay, and for DFS purposes, he’s also made the Packers’ DST a solid producer, as the Pack come in having recorded five sacks in two of their last three games. The matchup here is also more enticing than it seems as Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200) comes in with one of the more suspect INT-rates in the league. Despite San Francisco ranking third to last in pass attempts per game, Garoppolo still recorded 14 INTs on the season, with nine of them coming at home. While Green Bay got blown out in their last visit to San Francisco, this still rates out as a solid matchup for Green Bay, whose defense may be peaking at the right moment to post a big fantasy total in this weekend’s game.
Set your lineups here: NFL $3M Millionaire [$1M to 1st + $25K Game Stack Bonus]
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