The NFL postseason has been a wild one, and now we’re down to the final four. Obviously, on just a two-game slate, targets are much more limited, so we’ll make the article fit the slate. Some positions might only have one expensive option to even consider, others may be stacked with value.
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Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. TEN ($7,700)
Mahomes is obviously the strongest of the four plays on the slate. He just put on a show against Houston, with over 300 passing yards and five touchdowns — oh, and he ran for 53 yards on his way to 41.14 DKFP. The Titans have held the Patriots and Ravens to a combined 25 points in the playoffs, but still rank 28th in DKFP allowed to QB. Mahomes is a must-play in cash.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. GB ($5,200)
Jimmy G is my preferred value play in tournaments, but there are some red flags. He’s scored 12.6 or fewer DKFP in five of his last six, and 8.24 DKFP in the playoff win over the Vikings. The Niners can win the game with their run game and/or defense, leaving a low floor here. Jimmy G did score 18.22 DKFP in the 37-8 win over the Packers in Week 12, showing that he can play well in this matchup.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN at KC ($5,500)
You almost want to play Tannehill if you think the Chiefs wind up winning this game big. The Titans will do everything they can to run the ball down Kansas City’s throat if they want to win this game, and that game plan hasn’t involved throwing the ball in the postseason. But Tannehill scored 20 DKFP in this matchup back in Week 10, and if KC jumps out to a lead, Tennessee will have to lean on its passing game.
Derrick Henry, TEN at KC ($8,700)
I don’t have to get into the numbers of this playoff run by Henry. He’s been good for a couple hundred yards and at least one touchdown, making him a tough fade against the defense that ranks 24th in DKFP allowed to RBs. Henry crushed the Chiefs in the Week 10 game, posting a 23-188-2 line for 36.1 DKFP. Most lineups will have Henry, so the real take here is if you think the Chiefs win big and he’s worth fading.
Damien Williams, KC vs. TEN ($7,000)
Williams is the perfect pivot off of Henry. It indicates the Chiefs get out to a big lead, taking Henry out of the game, and running the ball to protect their own lead. Williams has found the end zone six times in his last three games, averaging 26.5 DKFP in those outings. The Titans ranked below average against RBs in the regular season.
Raheem Mostert, SF vs. GB ($4,300)
Yes, last week was Tevin Coleman ($5,700) week, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be the guy again. Mostert still had 12 carries last week, and tended to a calf cramp during the game. If he splits carries evenly this week, he’s a good value, but I expect Mostert to lead the backfield in touches.
Other value options: Tevin Coleman ($5,700), Jamaal Williams ($3,800)
Davante Adams, GB at SF ($7,900)
If there’s a Packer that’s matchup proof, it’s Adams. He dominated the Seahawks for an 8-160-2 line (39 DKFP) — his fourth straight game of over 22 DKFP. Even in the 37-8 loss to the Niners, he brought in 7-of-12 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown (19.3 DKFP). I don’t think I’ll have the salary for him, but he’s a viable tournament play.
Tyreek Hill, KC vs. TEN ($7,200)
Hill was quiet in the Divisional Round, but that’s fine by me. This a great matchup for him to make some noise, following an 11-157-1 line for 36 DKFP on 19 targets during the regular-season meeting. The upside here is too much to pass up.
Deebo Samuel, SF vs. GB ($5,500)
Deebo was less involved the last time he faced the Packers, but he did catch both of his targets for 50 yards and a score (13 DKFP). He should see more volume this time around and makes for a cheap stack with Jimmy G.
Other value options: A.J. Brown ($5,200), Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900), Sammy Watkins ($4,600)
Travis Kelce, KC vs. TEN ($7,100)
Kelce is the obvious choice at TE this week, following a 10-134-3 line for 44.4 DKFP against Houston. He was also solid in this matchup in Week 10, bringing in all seven targets for 75 yards and a touchdown (20.5 DKFP). Tennessee ranks just 25th in DKFP allowed to TEs, leaving Kelce as one of the slate’s top plays.
George Kittle, SF vs. GB ($5,800)
It’s tough to look past playing one of the top-two TEs. Kittle’s coming off his worst game since Week 13, but that just gives him some value. He’s a consistent force every week, and dominated the Packers back in Week 12 — 6-129-1 (27.9 DKFP). I’ll do everything I can to play both TEs on this slate, but it just might not be there.
Other value options: Jonnu Smith ($3,400)
49ers D/ST vs. GB ($2,900)
The Niners have the best defense on the slate from a fantasy perspective, and football perspective. It looked dominant at home in the Divisional Round, barely letting the Vikings move the ball, and scoring 14 DKFP. It scored 11 DKFP against the Packers earlier in the year, and I expect something in there 11-14 range for this game.
Titans D/ST at KC ($2,000)
I’m not too interested in the Packers ($2,400) even with the lower game total. I’m not interested in the Titans either, but if you want to go crazy in a GPP, go for it. As I mentioned, this team is on a roll, and while I don’t believe in them, the numbers are impressive. The Titans held the Patriots and Ravens to a combined 25 points, and scored 14 DKFP in each game.
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