This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high upside, low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can really pay off big for you in a large field tournament.
StacksRyan Tannehill ($5,300) – Corey Davis ($4,400) – Mike Evans ($6,600), TEN vs. TB
The Buccaneers defense enters this week having allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league, putting the Titans passing game in a potentially high-upside spot for Week 8. Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh most DKFP per game to opposing QBs this season and the Titans enter this game with a big 24.5 implied team total as of writing, giving us plenty of reasons to like the cheap price on Ryan Tannehill. The veteran QB excelled last week, tossing two TD passes for 312 yards against a tougher Chargers secondary. Like Tannehill, Davis also stands to benefit again as he gets a dream matchup against a Bucs secondary that has allowed the second-most DKFP per game to the WR position this year — and six TDs to opposing WRs in their last four games. On the flip side, it also makes sense to target Tampa Bay’s wide outs here as the Bucs have attempted the 12th most pass plays per game on the year. The 6’5″ Evans, whose salary is set at his lowest price-point of the season this week, will be matched up against a group of CBs who are all 5’11″ or shorter. It’s a boom-or-bust kind of game to target given the inconsistencies of both offenses but the matchups suggest big fantasy days for both passing offenses could transpire.
Just Missed: The Lions will be taking on the Giants this week and just lost the services of RB Kerryon Johnson (knee). This game has a 49 O/U total as of this writing and the Giants have given up 300 yards of passing or more in four of seven games this year. Matthew Stafford ($6,100) – Saquon Barkley ($8,900) – Kenny Golladay ($6,400) look like a nice way to attack this potential shootout.
QuarterbackMitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. LAC ($4,900)
I understand that rostering Trubisky after a horrid Week 7 may require a leap of faith but his reduced salary and matchup against the Chargers is reason enough to get interested in big GPPs. Ranked 21st in adjusted sack rate, the Chargers D-Line has been mostly hot-air this year and its shown on the stat-sheet, as they’ve now allowed multiple-passing TDs in four of seven games — and just gave up 312 yards and two TDs to Tannehill. Trubisky’s struggles have been well-documented but it should be noted that despite all the negativity, he’s still managed to reach over 20 DKFP in the last two games he’s started and finished, and still carries a very high-end No. 1 WR in Allen Robinson ($6,000). The Bears haven’t been able to run the ball much of late, but still carry a 22.25 implied team total into this game as 4-point favorites. Trubisky should have a decent shot in this matchup to better his recent production and perhaps even breakthrough for a big fantasy game, like he did multiple times in 2018.
Just Missed: The Eagles secondary remains one of the worst in the league, allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game this far in 2019. Josh Allen ($6,500) is set up for a big game here in a matchup that features a close point-spread that suggests a tight, back-and-forth affair could develop.
Running BackMarlon Mack, IND vs. DEN ($6,100)
Mack enters this game having averaged 26 touches over his last two games. The Colts lead back has dominated the red zone touches for the Colts this season, touching the ball 18 times already inside the 20-yard line, but has only scored twice on the season. With this kind of touch-rate we can certainly expect Mack to improve on this TD rate as the season progresses and that positive regression may even start in Week 8. Mack and the Colts face the Broncos this week and enter as 6.0 point favorites at home, suggesting a game-script where we could see a heavy dose of Mack carries. Denver’s ceded six TDs to opposing RBs already this year and Mack rarely came off the field last week, playing over 71% of the snaps. His usage and the spread/total projections here suggest he could have a great shot at a big volume/multi-TD kind of game in Week 8.
Just Missed: The Patriots are already dinged up at RB with Rex Burkhead being hurt, but Sony Michel also got banged up at the end of Week 7. James White ($5,100) has averaged nine targets over his last four games and faces a Cleveland defense in Week 8 that has given up the eighth-most DKFP to opposing RBs on the season.
Wide ReceiverCourtland Sutton, DEN at IND ($5,300)
Sutton comes into Week 8 averaging 15.7 yards per reception this year, 19th best in the league. The second-year receiver is averaging eight targets per game over his last four starts and over 80 yards receiving on the season. The recent trade of Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers should only open the door for Sutton to see a boost in targeting which could eventually push him into the league’s top-10 in targets and yardage on the year. He’s set up to begin his tenure as Denver’s true WR1 with a bang in Week 8 too as he faces the Colts who have given up the 11th most DKFP per game to opposing WRs this year—and four 100 receiving games to opposing WRs over their last four games. It’s a breakout spot for Sutton who looks like great value here considering the matchup and the teams recent roster moves.
Just Missed: DJ Chark ($6,000) disappointed for the Jaguars last week but he should remain on DFS players radar in Week 8 against the Jets, who have allowed the ninth most passing yards against per game, but maintain the second-lowest yards per carry average of any defense in the league.
Tight EndJacob Hollister, SEA vs. ATL ($2,900)
Hollister, a former Patriots TE, was moved up onto the active roster recently and — mainly due to the loss of Will Dissly (Achilles) — is already making his presence felt on the stat sheet. Playing a season-high 51% of the snaps last week, Hollister drew six targets from Russell Wilson ($7,200) in Week 7, third best among all Seahawks receivers, going for three receptions and 20 yards. The Hawks have a fantastic matchup against Atlanta this week that has allowed an average of three passing TDs over their last five starts and ceded four TDs alone to TEs over their last three starts. Hollister looks poised to keep soaking up targets in Dissly’s absence and could be an electric play here at under $3K in price considering the matchup and how effective Seahawks TEs, in general, have been this year.
Just Missed: After a huge bust week, the Giants Evan Engram ($5,300) has come way down in price on DraftKings but still has a solid matchup this week. The Lions just traded their starting safety and ceded 23 receptions to TEs over their last three games making this a big potential bounce-back spot for double-E.
DSTLos Angeles Rams vs. CIN ($3,800): The Rams D/ST rebounded nicely last week on the road, posting five sacks, three turnovers and a TD. While they’ve been scored upon in bunches at times the Rams remain an elite unit and have another soft matchup in Week 8 against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the fifth most sacks against in the league thus far and have little to no run game, averaging just 53 yards of rushing per game, last in the league. The likes of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey should have plenty of chances to tee off here for big plays or turnovers. LA should push for the highest DST score on the slate in this spot.
Carolina Panthers at SF ($2,400): The Panthers D-Line is third best in adjusted-sack rate and and first in the league in total sacks. The matchup this week isn’t great as San Francisco’s O-Line has allowed the third fewest sacks against in the league but the sub-$2.5K pricing here is simply too good to pass up. Coming off a bye week, Carolina should be rested and ready to pounce on a 49ers O-Line that is still missing some key pieces, like tackle Joe Staley, up front. The price here is simply too good to ignore for a D/ST who has averaged 15.5 DKFP over their last four games.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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