This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can really pay off big for you in a large field tournament.
StacksGardner Minshew II ($5,000) – Dede Westbrook ($5,100) – Alvin Kamara ($8,000)
Through four starts, Minshew has averaged 25 yards rushing per game, while piling up a 105.6 passer rating and nine TDs vs. just one INT. The Saints defense has played well the last two weeks but have managed just three sacks through two road games and have given up an average of 335 passing yards per game. Big play specialist DJ Chark ($5,500) is coming off his second massive game of the year but has a tougher matchup this week against Marshon Lattimore, who held Mike Evans to zero catches last week and Amari Cooper to just 48 yards the week before. Chark is talented enough to overcome this but Westbrook might be the sneakier player to stack with Minshew as he’s cheaper than Chark and has seen the same number of targets to date this year — he’ll also be up against the much softer coverage of PJ Williams from the slot. On the flip side, Kamara’s price has come down a bit, but he’s still averaging 23 touches a game with Teddy Bridgewater ($5,300) at QB and is going up against a defense that allowed Christian McCaffrey to rack up 237 yards and three TDs last week. A close spread (+1.5 NO/-1.5 JAX) and two teams with explosive offensive weapons, with cheaper salaries attached to them on DraftKings, makes this a nice game to attack for GPPs this week.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Alvin Kamara (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game vs. the Jaguars.
Just Missed: The Rams and 49ers have the second-highest game total on the main slate at 50.5. Jared Goff ($6,100) – Cooper Kupp ($7,100) and George Kittle ($5,200) gives you the big volume receivers on both sides of the ball in case we see another wild shootout develop with the Rams.
QuarterbackLamar Jackson, BAL at CIN ($6,900)
The Ravens take on the Bengals, who just allowed Kyler Murray ($6,400) to rush for 93 yards. Cincinnati’s porous run defense is reason enough to play Jackson, who has thrown for five INTs the last two weeks but maintains an amazing rushing yards per game average of 61.6. The Bengals don’t have a great pass rush — sixth last in adjusted sack rate — or a good secondary, as they’ve only picked off two passes thus far and have allowed opposing QBs to average 8.7 yards per completion, the second-highest rate in the league. This is a “get right” spot at home for Jackson, who could easily rush for a TD here while throwing for multiple TDs as well. Jackson’s ceiling remains tied somewhat to how competitive the Bengals can be this week, but if Cincinnati can keep this game close into the fourth quarter, another massive fantasy day for L-Jax could easily transpire here.
Just Missed: The Vikings. Kirk Cousins ($5,200) again just misses being on my list, as he has a nice matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game so far. He should be in for a higher-volume game as the Eagles have allowed just 3.2 yards per carry to opposing RBs this season.
Running BackJoe Mixon, CIN vs. BAL ($5,500)
Mixon has put together a couple decent games in a row now and posted a healthy 4.9 YPC last week against Arizona. Mixon has had 20 touches in each of his last two games and could be in position to finally breakthrough for more production against Baltimore, which has allowed 4.7 YPC on the season and rank just 23rd in rush defense DVOA (via footballoutsiders.com). Despite ranking third in pass attempts per game, the Bengals have averaged less than that over their last three starts with Mixon’s rush attempts rising in each of his last four starts. With more opportunity and an overrated Ravens defense on the schedule this week, Mixon’s price, which is $600 cheaper than last week, makes him a nice upside target this week in GPPs where he’ll have the potential to fetch low, single-digit ownership.
Just Missed: The Dolphins. Kenyan Drake ($4,400) is still playing around 60% of the snaps every week, is averaging five targets per game is a game-flow neutral target given his involvement in the pass game. The Redskins have also yielded four TDs to opposing RBs in their last two starts.
Wide ReceiverStefon Diggs, MIN vs. PHI ($5,900)
Just like last week, where we saw players like Will Fuller (6,000) and Adam Theilen ($7,000), this week could be the one where Stefon Diggs ($5,900) finally shows up on the score sheet. Held to one TD and just 16 catches thus far on the season, Diggs has a dream matchup in Week 6 against the Eagles, who feature one of the worst secondaries in the league and have given up the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs on the year. Outside of last week’s joke of a game against the Jets, opposing QBs vs. Philly have averaged 43 pass attempts per game, making this a spot where Diggs could potentially push for 8-10 targets. Despite the slow start, Diggs is still averaging 15.8 yards per catch and capable of lighting up a weaker secondary with a couple big plays. He still carries a large bust factor but is an interesting pivot off last week’s hero Will Fuller ($6,000), who will be sure to draw some ownership.
Just Missed: Like Diggs, Courtland Sutton ($5,000) is averaging over 15 yards per catch but is also seeing far more targets (eight per game). Sutton’s big-play ability and cheaper salary make him a nice GPP pivot against a somewhat struggling Titans secondary.
Tight EndZach Ertz, PHI at MIN ($5,400)
Ertz has the potential to go overlooked this week given the plus-matchups for the other top-5 TEs on this slate, but his potential to garner lower ownership may be an opportunity in GPPs. The Vikings have yielded the fourth-most receptions to opposing TEs so far in 2019 and the volume monster Ertz should be in a position here to add to his team-leading 29 catches and 45 targets. Ertz’s production has been hampered this year by some tough matchups and game flow, which has worked towards the Eagles passing the ball nearly 10% less on average than last season. The Vikings defense ranks second in rush DVOA (again via footballoutsiders.com) and have allowed just 3.6 YPC so far on the season, suggesting this will be a spot where Ertz will need to be relied upon more. He’s at his cheapest price point of the season and in a great buy-low spot this week.
Just Missed: The Rams could be without Brandin Cooks ($5,400; concussion) this week and Gerald Everett ($3,600) was targeted heavily last week after he left the game. Everett has caught 12 passes over the last two games — so he has value at this price regardless — but would likely be slated for more volume if Cooks is ruled out.
Defense/Special TeamsBroncos vs. TEN ($3,100): Despite a slow start, the Broncos defense has looked more opportunistic the last couple of weeks, producing a five-sack game against the Jaguars and three turnovers against the Chargers. The Titans O-Line is one of the worst in the league, yielding 22 sacks through just five weeks while ranking second to last in the league in adjusted sack rate. Denver’s rush defense is a concern but the Titans inability to stop their QB from getting hit makes this a nice upside spot for the Broncos, who should be riding high after their first win last week.
Chiefs vs. HOU ($2,500): The Chiefs are not known for the defensive prowess but they’re an interesting GPP target given the lack of viable options under $2,500 this week. The Texans O-Line ranks fifth last in adjusted sack rate, yielding 18 sacks through five games. The Chiefs aren’t a threat to shut anyone out but have a slew of solid kick returners capable of scoring on special teams, and have held two opponents under 20 points already this year. The Texans’ leaky O-Line could provide the big plays necessary here for KC to produce a double-digit DKFP game and allow them to pay off their cheap salary.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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