This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, likely low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Deshaun Watson ($6,700) – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) – Will Fuller ($4,500)
The Atlanta pass defense is bad. The Falcons gave up five TD passes to the combo of Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, and allowed both those QBs to average 8.41 and 8.38 yards per attempt, respectively, nearly two points higher than their respective career averages in that regard. Deshaun Watson has been hurt by the incompetence of his offensive line this year, but Atlanta’s defensive line ranks a mere 26th in adjusted sack rate so far, recording just five sacks on the season. Likewise, Atlanta’s corners have been easy targets this year, allowing the second-most TDs to the WR position (7). DeAndre Hopkins feels like a prime bounce-back candidate against Desmond Trufant, who allowed T.Y. Hilton to go for 8 receptions, 65 yards and a TD in one half of play. You could try and pay up for Julio Jones ($7,700) on the other side of this game, but Will Fuller at just $4,500 has loads of upside, and he could pay off on just one deep ball. I like pairing the slow-starting Watson with both his prime receivers here and hoping for a big day from the trio against a very underwhelming Atlanta pass defense.
Just Missed: Both Minnesota and the Giants (especially the Giants) have struggled in pass coverage this year, making their matchup a sneaky spot for a possible shootout this week. One of Kirk Cousins ($5,300)/Daniel Jones ($5,600) paired with Adam Thielen ($6,700) – Evan Engram ($5,800) makes for an interesting stacking target in large-field GPPs.
Daniel Jones ($5,600)
As mentioned above, I really like the potential for some big fantasy numbers to develop from the Giants-Vikings matchup. Minnesota has been stellar against the rush this year, allowing under 3.8 yards per carry, but haven’t been nearly as dominant in stopping the pass, allowing multiple passing TDs against in all but one game this year. Jones had a more muted start against Washington, but his 31 pass attempts should be viewed as his absolute floor given how little a fight the Redskins put up. Minnesota enters this week game as 5.5-point favorites meaning a more fantasy-friendly game flow could develop here for Jones, who has also averaged over 30 yards rushing in two starts now. Given the Vikings’ strength against the run, and the Giants inability to stop much on defense, Jones could easily bounce back here for another monster game at a price that is still quite affordable for those in need of value at QB.
Just Missed: The Cardinals-Bengals game features two of the fastest-paced teams in the league making Kyler Murray ($6,300) and Andy Dalton ($5,700) both great targets this week. Murray’s rushing gives him the higher floor, but Dalton is cheaper and should be lessor owned in big GPPs.
Tarik Cohen ($4,900)
In two games with Chase Daniel ($4,800) last year, Tarik Cohen caught 19 passes on 22 targets for 210 yards and a TD. Daniel’s lack of arm strength, but higher football IQ, made Cohen into a PPR monster for two weeks last season, and there’s no reason to think that the same scenario can’t play out again in 2019. The increasingly shifty Cohen is a nightmare matchup for most LBs and, while his snap count has dropped a little with David Montgomery ($5,200) now in the mix, Cohen still sits comfortably in second on the Bears in targets on the season (10 targets ahead of third). The Raiders have been decent at stopping the rush this season, allowing under 4.0 yards per carry to opposing RBs, so a heavier dose of Cohen in the passing game in this matchup would make sense. His limited snap count makes him a high bust candidate, but with Daniel as his QB, his upside is heightened this week.
Just Missed: The question marks surrounding Josh Allen (concussion) this week makes the chances of a big Derrick Henry ($6,000) game a lot higher. If the Titans were able to jump on Matt Barkley ($4,600) early, you could see a 25-plus touch game from the power back.
Auden Tate ($3,500)
The Bengals will be without John Ross (shoulder) for the foreseeable future, opening the door for Tate to take an expanded role. The 6’5″ Tate had already been taking considerable snaps, playing 90% of the snaps for the Bengals the last two weeks, and sits third on Cincinnati in overall targets and second in red-zone targets coming into this week’s game. One factor that should lead to an expanded usage rate here for Tate is the Week 5 matchup. Arizona plays at the fastest pace of any team in the league, and while they have a decent pass rush, the Cardinals have allowed 10 passing TDs on the season (second-worst in the league), putting Tate in a good spot to potentially find the end zone. With many fantasy players likely targeting the TE position against the Cardinals, deploying Tate over teammate and likely DFS chalk Tyler Eifert ($3,300), could be a key leverage spot for Week 5.
Just Missed: The Vikings should be looking to be more aggressive in the passing game this week against a bad Giants secondary. Adam Thielen ($6,700) is in a good rebound spot. The Cardinals have injury issues at WR so rookie Andy Isabella ($3,200) could finally get a shot at playing significant snaps. His playing status is one to keep an eye as the week progresses.
Dawson Knox ($3,100)
Knox is an interesting target on the main slate this week, especially as several big-name TEs are off or playing in primetime. The rookie has carved out a nice role for himself on the Bills, leading all TEs for Buffalo in targets, snap counts and catches. Knox played a career-high 65% of the snaps last week and was the only TE to receive a target against the Patriots, as he caught three of three targets for 58 yards. His growing role aside, this is a potentially great matchup for Knox as the Titans have been terrible at covering TEs thus far, allowing the mildly athletic Austin Hooper ($4,500) to go for 9 receptions and 130 yards last week. Regardless of who starts at QB for Buffalo, you could see slightly more throwing here as the Bills enter this game as three-point underdogs against a Tennessee defense, that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard-rusher yet this year. Knox carries a solid upside here at an incredibly cheap price point.Just Missed: The Broncos have been using rookie Noah Fant ($2,800) somewhat consistently, giving him three or more targets in every single game. At under $3K, he should be on the radar here in GPPs, as a TD or slight uptick in targets could lead to a 5X type of payoff.
Titans ($3,000): The Titans have an interesting matchup this week against the Bills, who are coming off a hard-fought loss to the Patriots. Tennessee’s DST has averaged 10.8 DKFP per game thus far and their defensive line comes in having the eighth-best adjusted sack rate in the league. Buffalo is either going to be starting Josh Allen ($5,700) on almost no practice or Matt Barkley ($4,600). Allen is tied for the lead league in INTs and Buffalo’s offensive ranks only 22nd in pass protection. This is prime matchup for a solid DST unit at home, and it’s a big discount off the top teams.
Steelers ($2,100): For those who don’t mind a little more risk, the Steelers DST at $2,100 this week is extremely tempting. Along with being priced at just above the bare minimum, the Steelers recorded eight sacks last week, and come into this week’s game against an average Baltimore offensive, ranked fifth in adjusted sack rate on defense. Lamar Jackson ($7,100) will be making his first start on the road in Pittsburgh and threw his first two interceptions of the year last week. This could be a spot to pounce on a Ravens team that hasn’t looked great its last two starts.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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