This is a weekly series where I break down my favorite weekly tournament plays. I’m going to be focusing on high-upside, likely low-owned plays and stacks from the main Sunday slate that (hopefully) can pay off big for you in a large-field tournament.
Baker Mayfield ($5,900) – Odell Beckham ($7,000) – Kareem Hunt (5,600)
Marquise Brown (147 yards, two TDs), Terry McLaurin (100 yards, two TDs), Amari Cooper (88 yards, two TDs) and John Brown (147 yards, two TDs) are just some examples of WRs who put up massive games against the Miami secondary this year. Enter Odell Beckham, who perked up a little last week with a big first-half catch against Pittsburgh and has seen 22 targets over his past two games. Beckham and Mayfield haven’t had as solid a connection as one would have thought this year, but Mayfield is playing better of late with five touchdowns against no picks in his past three games against three of the toughest passing defenses in the league — Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Denver.
The Dolphins rank last in adjusted sack rate on the year and should give Mayfield as much time as he wants to target Beckham downfield in this game. While you could think about adding a cheap Miami target like Patrick Laird ($3,400) to this stack, I like tripling down with Hunt, who has played a healthy 55% of the snaps and seen 17 targets the past two weeks. In a possible blowout, you could expect the Browns to get Hunt more involved as a runner late, and given his connection with Mayfield — 13 catches on 17 targets — a big receiving day should be expected.
Just Missed: There’s no harm in going back to the well with a Nick Foles ($5,400) – DJ Chark ($6,400) stack. The two connected for two scores on 15 targets last week and play Tennessee, which has a weak secondary and an easy comeback play in Derrick Henry ($6,900).
Dwayne Haskins Jr. ($4,900)
Coming off the bye week, Haskins was able to put up his first decent performance of the year, throwing for two scores and 214 yards against the Jets. It’s nothing crazy to write home about, but Haskins has shown he has the upper-end skill set to make exciting plays happen when he gets the chance, and he might get more of those chances against the Lions this weekend. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most DKFP per game to opposing QBs this season and an absurd 16 passing touchdowns in its past five games. Helping Haskins even more here is the Redskins’ putrid offensive line might not be a big issue given Detroit’s defensive line ranks as the sixth worst unit in adjusted sack rate in the entire league. Haskins and early season Rookie of the Year favorite Terry McLaurin ($6,000) could get on track here against the soft Lions defense.
Just Missed: The Cowboys’ Dak Prescott ($6,000) just misses out here for me again. Yes, the matchup against New England isn’t great on paper, but Prescott averages 25.3 DKFP and saw a $700 price decrease despite posting 34.56 DK points last week. He’s simply too cheap for how well he’s produced for fantasy.
Derrick Henry ($6,900)
It’s been a tough scene for the Jags’ rush defense over the past couple of weeks, and it might be getting tougher in Week 12. The Jaguars have allowed an ungodly 7.3 yards per carry over their past two games and sit at the bottom of the league in terms of YPC average allowed on the year. Enter Henry, who might still flirt with just single-digit ownership in many tournaments, partially due to his price increase. It’s true Henry, at $6,900, is at his highest price point of the year, but his upside still makes this price somewhat of a bargain in big GPPs as he’s hit more than 24 DKFP twice on the year already and has averaged more than 30 DKFP the past two games. Recent trends aside, Henry has taken 24 of the 29 red zone touches among Tennessee running backs this year and comes up against a Jacksonville defense that has a allowed an 80% conversion rate in the red zone to opposing offenses its past three games. He’s in a fantastic spot this Sunday.
Just Missed: The Redskins welcomed back Derrius Guice ($4,700) last week, and his impact was immediate as he produced 13.9 DKFP on just eight touches and a 29% snap rate. Guice has a superb matchup for more big plays, and he should see increased opportunity as the year winds down. He’s a perfect risk-reward target in GPPs Week 12.
DJ Chark ($6,400)
Chark paid off for our top-stack last week in a big way, posting 104 yards and two scores on a healthy 15 targets. Despite all that, the sentiment for Chark still is tepid with fantasy players not wanting to believe in the hype of a player who graded out with 4.34 speed and a 40-inch vertical coming out of college. The matchup this week is fertile ground for another big game. The Titans come in having allowed five scores to opposing WRs in their past three games and an incredible 240 yards per game to the position over that same span. We got a glimpse last week of who Nick Foles ($5,400) will be targeting, as seemingly every roll of the dice came up Chark. He had seven more targets than Chris Conley ($4,100) and was the only Jags WR to receive a red zone target. Going back to him here in GPPs with still-low sentiment — and just a tiny price increase — makes a ton of sense.
Just Missed: It might feel like chasing points, but the matchup against the Patriots, who feature solid shutdown corners on the outside, might dictate another volume-induced, big game from Randall Cobb ($4,800). He could flirt with 10 targets here given Amari Cooper’s ($6,600) injury issues and matchup.
Ryan Griffin ($4,200)
Despite recording 24 or more DKFP in two of his past four games, Griffin’s $1,300 price increase this week is likely to keep his ownership levels down in big GPPs. The spot couldn’t be better, though, for Griffin to continue balling as the Raiders have given up the fifth most DKFP per game to opposing TEs and have one of the weakest pass defenses in the league. On top of playing more than 84% of the snaps in all but one game this year, Griffin ranks second on the team in red zone targets and has converted 16 of his past 18 targets from Sam Darnold ($5,800) into catches, with an 83% catch rate on the season, which puts him fourth in that category among all TEs. Blessed with another cake matchup and paired with a QB who doesn’t throw downfield much, there’s no reason why Griffin can’t see some more continuation here and pay off in GPPs.
Just Missed: Priced near the minimum, the Patriots’ Ben Watson ($3,100) is in an interesting spot to pay off on volume in Week 12. Dallas has allowed the fifth most catches to opposing TEs on the season thus far. and Watson has played 90% of the snaps the past two weeks while seeing 4.5 targets per game.
Saints ($3,300): New Orleans comes in just 15th in adjusted sack rate, but with 18 of its 27 sacks this season coming at home. The Saints also have allowed more than 50 yards less per game to opposing offenses at home and now welcome Kyle Allen ($5,200), who has turned the ball over seven times in his past three starts. Allen struggled against a much weaker division opponent last week and could be suffering behind an offensive line that ranks sixth last in adjusted sack rate and has given up the seventh most sacks this season. This is a big spot for a New Orleans DST that also ranks third in turnovers created this season.
Broncos ($2,400): Denver’s defense held up well for three quarters last week, only getting beat late thanks to some big plays by the Vikings’ skill players. Despite a slow start, Denver is up to 12th in adjusted sack rate on the season and coming off a game where it recorded five sacks and two forced fumbles against a solid Viking offensive line. Josh Allen ($6,300) has struggled against tougher defenses, throwing three picks against New England and completing just 53% of his passes vs. Cleveland. This unit has proven to be one of the best in the league the last month or so and has a solid matchup, making it a nice pay-down target in GPPs.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.