Who doesn’t need a little bit of value to fill out a lineup every now and then? Heck, if that value happens to be at a low-ownership, even better. Really, it’s almost a necessity with so many enticing DFS assets carrying large price tags in Week 7. You’ve got Dalvin Cook ($8,000) going up against a suspect Lions defense; you’ve got Evan Engram ($6,500) taking on a Cardinals secondary that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to the tight end position; and you’ve even got the Dolphins on the main slate this weekend, so you know you’ve got to get a piece of Bills D/ST ($4,300) somewhere.
Yet we’re not here to talk about the obvious plays you want to make, we’re here to find the options you didn’t know you needed. Let’s go position-by-position and discover a discount you might have been set to overlook this Sunday.
JACOBY BRISSETT, QB, IND vs. HOU ($5,600)Everyone loves T.Y. Hilton ($5,900) this week against a Texans defense he’s roasted for well over 100-plus yards three of the last four times he’s seen them, but how about the quarterback who will be getting him the football? Quietly, in the shadow of Andrew Luck’s retirement, Brissett has put together a really solid season for the Colts. The efficiency numbers won’t blow you away, as Brissett actually ranks dead-last among all qualified QBs in air yards per attempt (2.9), but the raw results have been spectacular. The former third-round pick has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of the five games he’s started in 2019 and his 0.50 fantasy points per drop back have him locked in a three-way tie for the 10th most in the league. Toss in the fact that Houston’s surrendered an AFC-worst 289.3 passing yards per game and that its opponent pass ratio is the second-highest mark in the NFL (68.0%) and you’ve got a fantastic matchup for a high-floor pivot.
MATT BREIDA, RB, SF at WAS ($5,300)Breida’s in a very particular situation this week and I’m curious to see how he’s utilized by the DFS community. I mean, it’s not as if you have to dig deep to find a reason to like the matchup. Washington has been exceedingly generous to running backs so far this season, allowing the fifth-most DKFP on a weekly basis on top of giving up 4.59 adjusted line yards per carry – the ninth-highest rate in the entire league. However, Breida’s ownership might suffer as he’s automatically juxtaposed with teammate Tevin Coleman ($5,600). Everything I spelled out about the Redskins’ defensive deficiencies apply equally to Coleman’s value and he’s also the guy who just out-snapped Breida 43-28 with six red zone rushing attempts in Week 6’s victory over the Rams. Yet, it’s not as if those extra Coleman snaps came at the expense of Breida’s workload. It was Raheem Mostert ($4,600) who barely saw the field. Breida still garnered 13 carries. Breida still caught four passes. That last element is crucial against Washington, as no team has seen its opponents target their backfield more often than the Redskins. Breida remains the more talented receiver of the 49ers’ dynamic duo and I truly believe that goal line work will continue to fluctuate between the pair. With that being the case, I’ll pivot off of the sure-to-be higher owned Coleman in tournaments and go with the Georgia Southern product instead.
DEDE WESTBROOK, WR, JAX at CIN ($4,900)At the beginning of the week, I considered putting DK Metcalf ($4,800) in this spot as a deep-ball threat against a Baltimore defense that had surrendered a whopping 24 passing plays of over 20 yards so far in 2019. However, yesterday afternoon, the Ravens acquired corner Marcus Peters from Los Angeles, somewhat solving an issue that has haunted them since Jimmy Smith’s Week 1 ailment. So, instead of picking on a team that’s adding CBs, let’s take advantage of one that’s seemingly losing them by the second. The Bengals will be without both William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick when they take on the Jaguars this Sunday. That means their top corner will now be B.W. Webb, a man not only playing through a fractured forearm, but one who has allowed the fifth-highest completion rate on the routes he’s covered this season (76%). Clearly this means positive things for all Jacksonville wideouts – with D.J. Chark ($6,000) likely benefitting the most – yet don’t sleep on Westbrook. The 25-year-old has the 10th-most targets of any wide receiver dating back to the start of Week 3, a span where’s he’s also averaged a respectable 12.5 yards per reception primarily working out of the slot. Westbrook seems due for a huge performance and Cincinnati’s injury woes make me think this is the week.
T.J. HOCKENSON, TE, DET vs. MIN ($3,600)Part of this could simply be a bout of odd scheduling, however, no team appears to funnel targets to the tight end position quite like the Vikings. For the entire season, Minnesota has surrendered a league-high 10.7 targets per game to opposing TEs, yet its in the past four weeks specifically where the numbers start to get outlandish. In that span, teams facing the Vikings have directed a whopping 36% of attempted passes at tight ends – far and away the highest rate in the NFL. Still, as mentioned above, you could make the argument that it’s not Minnesota inducing this level of positional volume, it just that they’ve happened to play tight end oriented squads like Atlanta, Philadelphia and Oakland. That’s fine, but understand that Detroit isn’t too far behind that grouping of teams, as the Lions have targeted their TEs on 23% of throws in 2019 – the 10th-highest mark in football. Most of those are for Hockenson, Detroit’s first-overall pick, and a man who’s seen a massive 29.2% share of his roster’s red zone targets in 2019. In fact, Hockenson was inches away from a pair of touchdowns as recently as Week 6 against the Packers. He should see similar opportunities this weekend.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.