We made it. Week 14 of the NFL season. Unofficially, the second Week 1 on the DFS calendar. Not only do we have a massive 13-game featured slate unencumbered by bye weeks or a stacked Thanksgiving schedule, but it’s also the first Sunday where many people no longer have ties to their season-long squads. Yet what are you going to do this weekend? Not have any sort of fantasy lineups on the go? Let’s be serious. If anything, you might have more action than usual. I get it. I’m definitely not above proving to myself and my friends that that 6-7 redraft team was most certainly a fluke.
So, if that’s the case, you’re going to need to start those builds with a little bit of value. Possibly value that people are overlooking. I’m here to help with just that.
KYLER MURRAY, QB, ARI VS. PIT, $5,800In no way am I suggesting that Kyler Murray has an easy matchup this week against a ferocious Steelers defense, but the simple fact of the matter is a quarterback with this high of a ceiling shouldn’t be this inexpensive. The rookie pivot has actually maintained a salary of over $6K in every game dating back to a Week 3 matchup with the Panthers – just the third start of Murray’s career. That’s not because the pricing algorithm thinks Murray’s a swell guy, either. He’s been deserving of that status. The 22-year-old has produced at least 23.0 DKFP in half of his 12 starts so far in 2019, while only posting fewer than 17.0 DKFP on three occasions. Heck, even if you want to include last weekend’s dud against the Packers, no NFC QB has averaged more fantasy points per drop back than Murray dating back to the beginning of Week 9 (0.59); a stretch where the Cardinals have squared off with the 49ers multiple times. At the helm of the league’s highest-paced offense and with his ability to rack up points with his legs, Murray is always a tantalizing DFS asset.
SONY MICHEL, RB, NE VS. KC, $5,600It’s hard to imagine that Sony Michel will be a popular play this weekend. The former first-round pick is sort of a fantasy leper. He’s yet to register a 100-yard rushing performance this season. He’s brought back single-digit DKFP in each of his past five games. He’s coming off a season-low 17.2% offensive snap share in Week 13’s loss to the Texans. Plus, if all that wasn’t enough, Michel’s also carrying his highest salary in over two months. What’s not to love, right? Still, despite all that, we’ve seen in the not-so-distant past how Bill Belichick wants his team to attack the Chiefs. In last year’s AFC Championship Game, Michel was handed the ball 29 times against Kansas City, eventually ending a 37-31 Patriots’ win with 113 yards and two touchdowns. More importantly, New England essentially played keep away the entire contest, dominating the regulation time of possession battle (39:07). With how Tom Brady has struggled in recent weeks, I’d assume a similar offensive philosophy is on the horizon for this Sunday. The Chiefs are surrendering 4.96 adjusted line yards per carry and are one of three teams conceded over 5.0 yards per opponent carry. If there was ever an opportunity for Michel to get back on track heading into the playoffs, its Week 14.
WILL FULLER, WR, HOU VS. DEN, $5,500On the surface, the Broncos seem to be a pretty formidable foe for wide receivers. In fact, coming into Sunday’s slate, Denver’s surrendered the fifth-fewest DKFP per contest to opposing WRs. However, the team’s recent game logs tell a bit of a different story. Across the past three weeks, no secondary in the NFL has allowed more yards per target to wideouts than the Broncos, who are giving up a whopping 10.7 yards per pass attempt. They’ve also conceded their first two individual 100-yard receiving performances within that span since all the way back in Week 1. In other words, Denver is susceptible. Obviously that means good things for DeAndre Hopkins’ ($7,400) outlook in Week 14, but get caught sleeping on Will Fuller at your own peril. The Notre Dame product is always a big play waiting to happen, yet it’s important to note that he cashes in on that promise far more often during matchups at NRG Stadium. For his career, Fuller is averaging 19.4 more yards per game when the Texans are suiting up at home, while 12 of his 16 touchdown receptions have come in Houston. As per usual, Fuller is most certainly a target to consider in tournaments.
MIKE GESICKI, TE, MIA AT NYJ, $4,000This is probably an odd thing to say about a player currently sporting a season-high salary, but there’s a chance that Gesicki is still too cheap heading into Week 14. There’s just so much to love about the sophomore’s DFS prospects, with almost all of those reasons stemming from the tight end’s elite level of volume. Yes, elite. That’s not an exaggeration. Going back to the beginning of Week 9, here’s a list of TEs that have accumulated over 300 air yards: Travis Kelce and Gesicki. That’s it. That’s the whole list. However, while Kelce’s needed a 24% target share within the Chiefs’ offense to get that done, Gesicki’s managed the feat with a far more conservative 17% rate. He’s able to do this due to the Dolphins throwing the ball at a higher rate than any other AFC team (66.9%); something that’s not likely to change with Miami down to their fourth-string RB this Sunday and the Jets allowing an NFL-low 2.85 adjusted line yards per carry. Basically, just don’t be one of those people jumping off the Gesicki bandwagon now that the ticket to ride is a little more expensive.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.